Everyone in hand, including hero, is either new to, bad at, or both when it comes to 2-7

Utg limps. I raise co with 2345. Sb and bb call. Draw #1: 1,1,2,1. I catch a 9. Checks to me I check, intending to draw one.

I would bet and draw 1


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yes, one guy is drawing two and although 2345 is not as good as something like 2357 it is probably better than the D1s the blinds hold so there is value

Ok now I have a hypothetical. Eliminate Utg with same action. So, I open button. Sb bb call and draw 1. I draw one and catch a 9. They check to me. Bet and pat til something bad happens or bet and draw 1?

I don’t think I’d ever keep the 9 on the first draw here. Maybe if I’m hu in position and my opponent draws 3.

For simplicity’s sake let’s assume sb has (4568) and BB has (3456) and neither has discarded 2 or 8 on first draw. This means they each have 3 outs twice to overtake me. Assume we’ve all discarded broadway cards on draw 1.

The dead cards are now my cards plus theirs plus discards (23459 me), (4568 sb), (3456 bb). So dead cards are 2,3,3,4,4,4,5,5,5,6,6,8,9 in hands and discards are kqj discarded by all players on draw 1 plus let’s assume sb and bb drew more broadways on draw 1. This is 18 cards that we “see.”

Each player now has 3 outs twice to overtake me from the other 34 unseen cards. 6/34=.176. Combined, they have 4 shots to hit it.

.176*4=.705. So, they are approximately 70%. Gives me approximately 30%.

I know this is simplistic but does it look like a reasonable assessment if you assume two players are drawing to a collective 6 outs to beat you?

I keep 9s after first draw less than most but I’d pat 9-5 here if bkth blind spot only called pre and took 1 each.

First, we can almost guarantee that there are two dead 7 and 8s. If they don’t have 87 draw it’s possible they are drawing dead with a 9 draw.

Secondly, when we fast pat they may fold their rough 8 draws for the next bet. It’s tough for them to draw at 8764 or whatever when we fast pat. Of course this last point may not apply if they are clueless, which is likely given description and ore flop play

You make some good points here, think it’s possible someone has something like 8653 too but yeah many of cards you need with this specific one card draw of 2345 are dead. So patting 95432 and 96432 here does make sense

But I think we would all agree that keeping the 9 with hands like 97532 and 98432 would be big time mistakes

Glad to learn this is a bet. Would it be a bet with no reads/i.e. is this a standard bet?

Whenever one player is a card behind in theory one of the D1s should probably bet.

This is kind of standard given our reads that the blinds probably have really rough draws.

But this one is kind of thin value wise because it's likely many cards we need are dead. If we have 2347 it's a slam dunk bet. 2345 still a bet but thinner imo

Thanks Scotch. No doubt a smooth nut draw is a slam-dunk bet. I just didn't think a rough draw was a bet when we'd have next to no fold equity. I just realized a mental error I'm probably making, which is betting perhaps 2346 over 2345 since the latter is a gut shot straight draw rather than an open ender. However with aces high that's irrelevant, and the 2346 is a weaker hand as a non-nut draw. So just putting that out there in case anyone reading this was making the same mental error.

I would pat this for sure.

I think pat can be profitable even without game description. You pat against tough pppnents too? I would bet pat this

It's 2-7 triple draw lowball

23457 is the best hand, straights and flushes don't count against you, there's your game description lol

So this is a pat simply because of the particular draw that we have and the fact that the blinds indicate that they probably hold the cards we need?

Sounds reasonable, pat and draw 1 may both be profitable though, but one may be better

I'd pat any 96+ here

Playing around with troutulator it appears like for most situations you are around 38% patting and 30% drawing. Of course by drawing we can make up at least some of that difference through implied odds. But one can make the case that we do better due to fold equity and that is true certainly in the case of the 2 card draw. So on the whole patting does seem better. But of course only for draws specifically like 2345 and 2346.

Seems like a must pat

This is a much tougher decision with something like 97432

I don't think it's a decision at all with the 97432. Patting it seems like a really bad play

Throw some hands in the simulator, I found the hot/cold equity was even better drawing. Then on top of that you keep your draws to #1 and #2

I think 96 and 95 are pats, but way closer than others think

Thanks. Troutulator can only be used with a laptop/ desktop, right? Went to the link on my phone but no luck.

Yeah can't use it with a phone.

I'm back to thinking this is a break with the 95432.

You have to take account for the size of the pot and how much you are "preserving" not just hot/cold equities. Preserving 8% of equity with one draw to go in a capped pot predraw is not nearly the same as preserving 8% of equity in a single raise predraw pot with two draws to go.

Assuming everyone calls on the flop there is 6 big bets in the middle. Patting over breaking "preserves" around .48 big bets. I think taking implied (while eliminating reverse implied) odds is worth more than that.

I break 95432.

Edit to add, I’m neglecting fold equity from other players. Thus I think it’s close and doing either can be justifiable

game description = reads on players

i'm aware of what 2-7 is thats why i said i would bet and pat this hand

Lol just fooling around with ya buddy

Hero and maybe SB are the only players in the hand w a clue. I've never seen pre-draw action like this before at stakes this high and I have no idea how to analyze the hand. I wonder if we have any FE, or if everybody is going to play loose passive throughout the hand. The only thing I'm pretty sure of is that we should bet this spot against these players w this hand.

Hypothetically, if all players were competent, the pot was 4 bet capped, and the drawing action was the same, I don't think betting UI is mandatory. The likelihood of getting x/r feels like it is too high to offset being a card ahead against only 1 of 3 opponents. I think I'd have to split my D1 range and bet the premium draws but not hands like 3568x UI.

I think something must have changed since I watched your videos on DC. Or I just didn't learn anything. I'd pat after the 2nd draw, but draw after the first with the best of 9s multiway.