NOBODY is folding a 2 card draw, which means 3B pf is lighting money on fire. Your just bloating the pot and creating a situation that will encourage opponents to go to showdown. You do not have an equity edge, in fact you are rarely more than a 10% fav over UTG 3 card limp rage in a multiway pot, especially if one of the opponents has outs you need (more likely than not in a 3 way pot)/. Your best bet preflop with this action is to have around 28-31% equity, that is not a good spot to be in.
Exploitive line: If you know BTN, Blinds and UTG will all fold to a 3bet, then go right ahead and jam it! Your goal wen 3Betting is to thin the field, not inflate the pot in TD with this action PF.
Lets assume UTG's range is something like 8d 6d 3h, HJ's hand is 9s 4c 7c 3c 5c, and BTN is semi clean with a hand like 248 - you have 45.8% equity on the flop. If we change UTG to 7d 6d 3h, you have 49% equity. If we give HJ 8s 4c 7c 3c 5c instead of a 9, then your equity drops to 40.9% hot and cold equity in a 4 way pot. Once he has a dirty 8 like 8 6 7 5 3 then you have anywhere between a 40% and and 35% equity. If you jam and you get it heads up, you are flipping vs a hand like 8s 5c 7c 3c 6c or 9s 5c 7c 3c 6c - they both have around the same equity.
What does this tell us? Hero makes more long term by letting the two extra players stay in rather than jamming them out of the pot going into the second draw.
(note we are assuming there is one dead 5, this helps us model the possibilities a bit more realistically since 2 or more of your outs will usually be dead 4 way).
Quote:
Just a dream scenario when it goes
As played, BTN is likely as clean as Hero. UTG is more likely to have an 8 draw to the 3 like 8d 6d 5h 3h. Vs this range UTG still has around 20% equity, with Hero and BTN carving up the rest to run remarkably close, there is no clear fav. Even if UTG wasn't' in the hand the equities still run really close. Lets be clear, this is NOT a dream scenario, you just put a ton of chips into a pot with no equity edge. At best your flipping, at worst your a small dog.
caveat - I am sick as a dog, feel free to point out any typos I may have missed. Not feeling well enough to error check today.