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27 TD: pairless snow & draw to 9

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07-02-2018 , 10:13 PM

LETIGRA

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 646

Seems every summer I get into triple draw and this one is no exception.

I'm playing low stakes heads up on a 6 max table for bitcoins. This is relevant b/c it is low stakes, and many bitcoin enthusiasts draw 4 on the first draw and 2 on the last. I try to play mathematically and a standard abc game will win against draw fourers. But these hands are tricky:

#1

I open small blind with 854 and villian calls.

Standard. You must raise. This is heads up and the blinds are worth a ton.

He draws 3. I hit 854KQ. He draws 2 I pat and bet it through.

#2

I open small blind with 875

He draws 2 I make 8759K. He draws 2 again. I draw one.

Thoughts?

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07-03-2018 , 02:48 PM

DeathDonkey

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Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 12,875

First one is very bad, second one is ok.

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07-03-2018 , 03:10 PM

/ / ///AutoZone

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 406

is there any merit to checking flop, specifically with two broadways? a lot of players i play with autoraise a d1 in this spot. fwiw i currently just blind bet and feel it's probably better. curious to hear people's thoughts

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07-03-2018 , 03:21 PM

/ / ///AutoZone

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 406

as for op first hand, confused about the action, but yeah, snowing should only be used when you pick up blockers.

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07-03-2018 , 03:39 PM

ScotchOnDaRocks

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Quote:

Originally Posted by / / ///AutoZone

H1 is definitely a check, D2 vs D3 is never an autobet especially with a d2 this weak

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07-03-2018 , 03:44 PM

ScotchOnDaRocks

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Quote:

Originally Posted by / / ///AutoZone

as for op first hand, confused about the action, but yeah, snowing should only be used when you pick up blockers.

Also the pot is very small and no dead money

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07-03-2018 , 03:48 PM

/ / ///AutoZone

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 406

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScotchOnDaRocks

Also the pot is very small and no dead money

this also ties into my reasons for betting.
probably misapplied tho, since it's not really a bluff.

Last edited by / / ///AutoZone; 07-03-2018 at 03:53 PM.

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07-03-2018 , 03:59 PM

ScotchOnDaRocks

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Quote:

Originally Posted by / / ///AutoZone

oh ok. are you checking all of your d2's then? my thoughts for betting was because bb is calling with hands like 86 and 76, that we would have some immediate fold equity. probably not often enough i guess.....

this also ties into my reasons for betting.
probably misapplied tho, since it's not really a bluff.

Oh no there would be some really easy bets with better UI D2s especially against bitcoin entrepreneurs as OP called them and if they are as loose as you may suggest the betting range would be bigger. Don’t expect much if any fold equity though

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07-04-2018 , 12:45 AM

LETIGRA

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 646

not entrepreneurs, enthusiasts

I'm trying to hit the straight in position for a mandatory snow.

Well I just want them to fold their big blind to be honest.

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07-04-2018 , 12:59 AM

#10

LETIGRA

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 646

Sorry to double post but you guys talking about checking back hand 1?

Even a crappy d2 is a mandatory bet against a d3 on the flop. They will still have a d3 18% and must mathematically fold.

If you both have d3s and do not improve it is correct to check back in position since you are laying 4:1 with a bet.

20% is more than 18%

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07-04-2018 , 01:45 AM

#11

/ / ///AutoZone

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 406

i guesstimated around 12.5%-13%. 50% x .5 x .5.
i suck at math tho
like there's 50% bad cards and 50% good cards for villain with 4 possible scenarios:
aaa aab abb bbb. this seems like it should be actually around 25% for each combination.
i don't know where i'm going wrong.

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07-04-2018 , 04:59 AM

#12

DeathDonkey

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LETIGRA

There is more to consider than this. If they start CRing when they go from 3 to 1 it’s going to be much worse for you.

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07-04-2018 , 06:24 AM

#13

Rob...Chill

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 172

Quote:

Originally Posted by LETIGRA

Even a crappy d2 is a mandatory bet against a d3 on the flop. They will still have a d3 18% and must mathematically fold.

If you both have d3s and do not improve it is correct to check back in position since you are laying 4:1 with a bet.

20% is more than 18%

If I have a unimproved draw 3 (with a deuce) after the first draw in position, there is 0% chance I’d fold when you are both Cbetting 100% and fast patting 458KQ a non-0% of the time. So expecting your bet to just win the pot 18% of the time is unrealistic.

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07-04-2018 , 09:54 AM

#14

ScotchOnDaRocks

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Yeah I would not fold either and a 458 catching two bricks is an equity dog vs a D3 where you don't know the result. And as previously mentioned you will start to get raised a lot when they really improve

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07-04-2018 , 10:01 AM

#15

ScotchOnDaRocks

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Quote:

Originally Posted by / / ///AutoZone

this also ties into my reasons for betting.
probably misapplied tho, since it's not really a bluff.

Well, the "quick pat" of the KQ is an odd line, but we are betting on the river hoping for worse hands to fold and should be called be no worse hands ever so it seems more like a bluff/snow to me than a quick pat

A quick pat to me would be up to a jack, where we would have the option to check the river

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07-04-2018 , 10:36 AM

#16

/ / ///AutoZone

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 406

oh no, i was saying i misapplied betting 854 intending to draw as a bluff.
this is what leads me to think we should be checking all of our d2's in this spot.
it's a small pot and our worst d2's can't be bluffs and our best d2's are thin at best. i don't really know the equities tho.
of course, this could still be misapplied being that we have should have no equity gained from villain's flop stabs when we're a favorite.

Last edited by / / ///AutoZone; 07-04-2018 at 10:50 AM.

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07-04-2018 , 11:08 AM

#17

ScotchOnDaRocks

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I think it would be losing too much value to not bet your premium D2 hands especially when you have paired. And a fold from an unimproved D3 is not out of the question. And certainly if we are putting dogs like 76 in the hands of these entrepreneurs...

I'm not concerned about balance and/or information hiding in regards to D2s. Weak D2s can become monsters, strong D2s can become marginal hands. 40% of our hand is undefined. For same reason I'm not shy about re-raising premium D2s from the big blind against late position raises.

I believe the optimal answer is to check or bet based upon your hand. But there will be a lot of checking.

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07-04-2018 , 09:34 PM

#18

prototypepariah

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 2,151

what is the bit coin enthusiast angle ?

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07-04-2018 , 11:20 PM

#19

LETIGRA

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 646

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob...Chill

Hi Rob

If you draw 3 you will still have a draw 3 18% of the time. I am going to bet. If you want to take another draw 3 go ahead but the pot is not laying the right odds.

I prefer you to take the draw 3 a second time

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07-04-2018 , 11:26 PM

#20

MacauBound

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScotchOnDaRocks

H1 is definitely a check, D2 vs D3 is never an autobet especially with a d2 this weak

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathDonkey

There is more to consider than this. If they start CRing when they go from 3 to 1 it’s going to be much worse for you.

They will also get to x/r the times they go 3 to pat if you auto-bet this spot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by prototypepariah

what is the bit coin enthusiast angle ?

I think bc it's a BTC-only site, he's referring to the microstakes players who have only recently discovered real-money online poker as a result of getting into BTC. Thus, they aren't experienced poker players.

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07-04-2018 , 11:26 PM

#21

LETIGRA

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 646

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathDonkey

There is more to consider than this. If they start CRing when they go from 3 to 1 it’s going to be much worse for you.

No it's not that bad i still have the odds to call.

You act like I don't have the odds to call the checkraise?

A draw 3 does not have the odds to call.

it won't be worse for me or you.

the math is the same for everyone

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07-04-2018 , 11:29 PM

#22

LETIGRA

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 646

Quote:

Originally Posted by prototypepariah

what is the bit coin enthusiast angle ?

lol.

I feel someone who is more enthusiastic about bitcoin than poker is an enthusiast.

They generally play low stakes games I frequent and don't really know the rules.

Bitcoin has great utility but how you could like it more than poker baffles me

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07-04-2018 , 11:39 PM

#23

LETIGRA

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 646

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacauBound

They will also get to x/r the times they go 3 to pat if you auto-bet this spot

oh if they draw 3 and check raise they are way behind.

I think because you guys might play higher stakes you think I am weak or don't think about the game.

I keep providing mathematically consistent data and analysis and people are like what if he check raises?

Are you kidding me?

I know death donkey is best triple draw player in the thread but I've definitely played more than 10k hands heads up this year and I've even met death donkey in aruba and he is not really a math guy.

The big bet games like omaha and holdem are good for you cause you can exploit people. Wonderful. I love those games too.

Triple draw is about the math.

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07-05-2018 , 12:26 AM

#24

MacauBound

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,786

Quote:

Originally Posted by LETIGRA

edit: nevermind, I think I'm wrong about this one and you are right, as you have stated. Like you said, even the best player in the thread isn't a math guy and shouldn't be steering you wrong, even if it was free advice.

Last edited by MacauBound; 07-05-2018 at 12:47 AM. Reason: Happy 4th everyone!

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07-05-2018 , 02:04 AM

#25

ScotchOnDaRocks

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Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 7,200

Quote:

Originally Posted by LETIGRA

Lol Letigra, partying too hard on the 4th?

No one is ignoring the math. Autobetting will mean you will often be putting in multiple bets when your equity is really bad. And 458 with two bricks would be an equity dog against a D3 where you don’t know the result of his first draw.

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