i'd fold pre. as played, i'd call and d2.

Watch the 10K 2-7 on Twitch with Death Donkey commenting.

Some good hands. Cutoff raises, and Randy Ohel 3bets on button with 2244x. He three best D1s and gets a fold later in hand.

I like snowing when I see many of the middle low cards like 3s and 4s that people need to fill hands as they often have a deuce already. Although that certainly varies by position.

Anyhow, just as a side note hero in this hand is 18.4% against any eight or lower. I made a simple division error at the end.

this is a completely different spot than drawing 3 on first draw and picking up a legitimate d2 tho. a hand like 2244q doesn't really have a call option so if it plays, it pretty much has to play as a 3bet with intention of snowing, right?

i honestly couldn't watch more than 10 minutes of the 10k. between not knowing positions, draws, often hole cards, and most of all, tuckman's inability to stop interrupting with his usual pointless commentary....like honestly dd doesn't seem to have any problem filling in any amount of time with consistent and useful commentary. let the man finish a single point.
i think i saw that hand you were talking about tho. was that the pat vs pat that he got through? pretty sick.

with discards and position it could possibly be played as a d3 but he was up against a great player so he turned it into a snow.

this kind of surprises me. maybe i'm too anal about balance since i'm still new to the game. would you ever be calling and drawing 3 vs a vanilla-competent player? like someone who plays all of the standard spots reasonably well?

I thought he got it through because the other guy missed but I could be wrong

Yeah Tuchman got in the way sometimes and limited DD to offer anything deep but still don't get very many opportunities to watch 10K 2-7 TD with hole cards.

Swedish guy that won made many fundamental errors so he was obviously a card rack to win. Randy played really well as expected but just was an auto payoff wizard on the end against the Swede who never bluffed.

It still confounds me that people are so results oriented when it comes to losing a pot on the end if you happen to get bluffed. They will say, "It was a 7 big bet mistake!" But what about the 10 big bets you saved when you correctly folded in other similar spots? Maybe it's because the spots are never obviously 100% similar but whatever.

no, basically never, just meant in theory it could be close

Each pair card adds around 2% to your equity and player in position has an advantage in 1/1 spots that helps over realize. However this is offset by the fact that if you do not improve to a D1 you will not be in a position to reap that.

Fwiw I liked his snow in that hand because it was exciting and good for the show and probably fine in that tournament spot. But I dislike preflop snows in general. You get enough spots where you have a low part of your range and catch perfect blockers. In a tough cash game I would fold his hand pre.

That snow was fun and I suppose I'll say a few things about it:
1. I ALMOST never snow pre. I've played enough hands with Kristis that he should know that and it should work a lot. This history with him will also factor in later. Also, snowing in tournaments, in general, is more effective than in cash games because most people do it less and most people are more willing to fold the river.
2. I picked this particular hand because I hadn't been out of line at all (in fact, nobody had) and it felt like it would work a lot of the time. Kristis was raising in C/O and if i caught him deuceless it would become very hard for him to make anything to call with.
3. Because of point 1, I went with the 1-pat line instead of a straight snow, which should make my eventual river bet much stronger.
4. Once he call-patted, I knew he had either a 9 or like 876. I've seen him be wililng to save a bet in this spot a bunch of times (generally correctly vs me) and thought he would think I would play the river straightforwardly, which is obviously what he did think given that he folded.

I'll also make one other general point:
The reason that I paid Nick off a lot is that he HAD been seen bluffing earlier in the tournament. He never bluffed on stream because he never caught a pair!

FWIW I'll check back on this thread (or if someone wants to make another) and be happy to answer questions from other hands if anyone has any.

i think the only debatable street is pre, but this hand is def at the top of my tilt range, so it can't be that bad in any scenario imo.
i can't remember the positions, but if he was in co, he should be deuceless 58% of the time (if my math is right).

Thanks for the chiming in! FWIW DD was giving you a hard time on the stream ha ha Yeah, that definitely changes the perspective on everything, if he had caught a pair of 3s just one time and bluffed it would have certainly changed the perspective on it all from what we saw on the stream

I mean it was like a 5-way pot so I don't think folding pre is really an option.

You are heads up with a 13. You must bet. I personally like to value bet 12s but he drew 2!

He has a little more than 12% to make a pat 9 with that draw and you have a #13

Call down and keep him honest. The pot is almost 6 big bets when you bet.

Once he check raises you are getting almost 9:2 to call him down which is 18%.

Remember he CAN NOT make a 9 more than 12 % and you have an 13 which is a great 8.

But this is why I hate value betting 13s against draw ones. I like 12s. But against a draw 2 it is a mathematical bet and call down.

Yes, it is around 12% to make a pat 9 or better. In a vacuum it is 13.60% without any of the cards being blocked so 12% is probably very close.

But anyhow, given the action the 12% seems irrelevant. For our opponent to be bluffing he would have to be turning his solid D2 draw into a bluff in a 2/0 against a very strong range. He would have to be an erratic player because this is a terrible spot to bluff. Knowing the 12% is not completely useless as it can help identify players overdoing it, but read given is a competent winning player and not a loose cannon.

Given that hero is almost certainly not starting with a 9, so if he has a 9 he got it on the first draw so 87534 is not high at all in our range. On a scale of 1-100 it's less than 50 for sure, maybe around 35-40? I'll figure it out..the point being though it isn't so high in our range that it is a must defend. It would be like feeling we have to defend our preflop raises in NL Hold'em with Q7o

i think folding pre is still an option. the perfect cards you're counting on should be dead (tho somehow they're not).
and i think this makes flop monumentally worse.

So close to 4th of July and trying to flame broil this guy ha ha, he was just trying to answer the question on snowing though

But FWIW I agree with folding pre, it’s not dissimilar to Razz where it’s a bad play to call a complete with a king up because of pot odds

no, it was mostly because he gave a snowing example that should not be a snow imo. not trying to roast anyone... i mean, i'm not all that certain in any advice i give in this forum, so i'm open to all criticism.

oh I got ya, at times I just try and inject some levity to the forum that's all

Hey Scotch. In a vacuum it is 11.88%. How are u calculating 13.60%?

If assumed 47 unseen--> that is a vacuum--> so 16*16/ 47*46

But since there has been draws we can assume people discard broadway cards at a rate close to 2:1 compared to low cards depending on if you count a 9 on whatever. This increases the odds but not past 13.4%

Fair enough with the winning player read. The small edges in triple draw make me scared of actually playing a competent player.

Glad you agree we will win 35%

We only need 18% to call down.

I get creative with Flopzilla and use it for various games. Each two card combo is 1.36%. Without a straight draw there are ten different combos that make a nine or better. That’s 13.60%. But what the exact % is doesn’t play a large role in this.

I don’t agree at all though with the fact that we will win 35%. The part you may have mistaken for that is where I was indicating how far up we are in range. We aren’t that high was the point I was trying to make.

Now is villain c/r 9s? Don’t see it. 876? Possibly but not enough and it’s not a great play all said and done. Since I crunched some numbers on this and make other points so I will probably put out an article on it. But I think it’s a fold.

I love your articles Scotch and am having a ton of fun on your website

Anyways we both have to agree that no matter how good a player is the math does not lie.

I know and you know once he draws 2 he will be behind over 90%. You have to win 18% for a call down since that is 9:2.

What are you scared of?

So if you don't think someone can get creative and check raise a 9 or a #17 well you don't understand creativity. OP drew one then patted. Could easily be 88732. Literally any 8 would be willing to check-raise such an arrogant pat.

Normally all out of position snows are double donk bets but against a 2:0 is literally the only time you can checkraise snow. If villian had a 12 or better it would be a double donk bet. No reason to try to get OP to break.

Lol thanks man, happy to hear it

But anyway entire premise is that this is a hand between two tight ranges, it’s not an arrogant pat whatever that means

But anyhow article is written. Even if people disagree with my conclusions I think there will be some educational value with some of mathematics involved

Welp keep the math airtight else Mason will reject article.

The pat is super arrogant.

Come on? How convenient?

Are you out in the field actually playing triple draw on a daily basis?

I’m no bitcoin enthusiast