8-16 playing against a competent, winning player.

He opens UTG, i 3b 8543 from CO, he calls. Pot HU

2 : 1

87534

he c/c's

2 : 0

he checks, i bet. if he c/r's here, feels pretty gross, right? breaking feels like it sucks. is this a fold without reads on snow tendencies?

I might be a ring game calling station bc I've played more shorthanded deuce, but I'd prob just call down and take note if he either snows or shows up w a weak pat hand. If he shows up w anything that beats us, its pretty standard and I wouldn't make a note.


What's for certain is that you can't break and villain has seen at least 1 deuce. What I'm not certain about is what villain's snow tendencies are, so I'm going to be calling down and hoping he has an 876 or a snow, esp online.

whatever you do, do NOT break

yeah i was like 99% sure we can never break here, glad to confirm it.

i didn't wanna add it in OP but i've seen villain do some weird c/r stuff before trying to get me to break - as i wanted to know what "standard" would be vs a guy whom we didn't necessarily know to be a bluffer.

i imagine knowing he can do that stuff this is a snap call down

We can't break, but we can fold.

I'm not saying in this particular hand because with the read you gave us in your last post forces us to say we should stay pat and call down.

But let's make sure of one thing first. In other situations where he may have c/r'd did the draws go 2/1 on the turn and he cr'd? That's a completely different situation than if they had gone 2/0. In a 2/1 if he ended up showing a nine, he was essentially making a thin value raise as a 1cd has an auto bet and a 9 is a slight equity favorite over 2 draws. Of course the possibility of a player breaking something like an 87 is gravy.

But a 2/0 is a completely different animal. You may have had the same 87543 hand but the situations are completely different.

But my standard in this particular situation would be to fold. But just to be clear it is because I am targeted for a strong 1cd, I'm pat on the 1st draw, and it went 2/0. We have to call down two bets and this is not a typical snow spot at all. If this is a play by villain it is officially a race to go get this guy's money.

basically with my line

3B pre
D1
pat

these actions indicate i'm toward the top of my range/made hand, so a c/r given my actions thus far would put him at the top of his range

vs say that 2/1 situation where my range doesn't necessarily include made hands yet which opens the window for him having made 9's and such

is that about right?

you can still have stuff like rougher 4 card draws that picked up a 9 and are pat. or you could be turning a rough draw into a snow since he's drawing 2.
i'm not completely sure how many rough draws your gonna have vs an utg range, but i'd guess in cases where you have say, 8654 with a pair, it's a decent spot to 3bet pre. maybe even something like 76544 (idk if this is too loose).
i think we'd have to keep a T in the rough 8 case too. would like to hear thoughts on this.

Yes exactly, and a key is that is against a few early position players with no button/blind dynamics

Think all of that is too loose vs an UTG with three more players who can still have a hand.

ok. what would be the worst position you'd think it'd be good? i'd still think something like 76533 could be good from even the hj. i'm not sure if it'd make a better check back on turn in a 1, 1 spot tho as opposed to a snow if we pair a card.

fwiw 3betting 76533 mainly because we have 5 lo cards so are most likely up against a d2 and we block pretty much all but uber premium d1's behind us. even if someone has a premium d2, i feel relatively safe on my suicide mission vs 2 d2's. w/e tho, i guess this is an isolated and rare spot anyway.
i agree with you on folding 76544 from all positions too

I definitely can’t say it’s not profitable but I don’t do it. My rationale is that I don’t attack strong ranges.

We should have a bunch of combos of 98xxx and some combos of 876x3. Folding here seems to high in my range. #showdownmonkey.

That's the LHE way to describe this bluffcatch and it's basically my perspective if we are going to pat the 2nd draw w most 9s after villain D2 OOP. There are plenty of worse hands that we can fold and plenty of better hands we can 3b turn, or delay and raise river with, so this hand seems to fit fine in the call down bucket. Blocking a 7/8 and not blocking any deuces is another small factor favoring the call down, as are the meta benefits.

What is the c/r range of the villain?

i can't say definitively wrt his value range. just that i've observed a couple failed snow attempts.

Bolded is important, and more than a small factor! If villain is polarized -- he always has better than 87 or a complete snow that doesn't redraw -- you can argue that blocking 7/8 and no deuces is more important than where you are in your range. we know he likely started with a deuce, and his likeliest snow hands will be multiple deuces, which we block none of.

I would like to punch this into the ole’ calculator and will be an easy matter to do it exactly even reflecting card removal.

So we are assuming he check raises any 87 but also has snows?

Frankly I think I’ve seen more check calls with 876 than I have seen pure snows in this type of spot but that’s neither here nor there. And certainly have seen a ton of mid to lower stakes online.

Also say he does c/r with an 876 is he betting river? Call/pat and the another call seems like it is leaking money.

But give me the assumptions and will see where numbers take us. I will probably just post the results in Magazine though.

So what are you thinking his snow range is? He started out with something like 258 got two deuces and goes for it? Does he go for it with 23722? These don’t seem like great plays but can roll with it.

That can be accounted for no problem. Combo wise it’s definitely not going to be a lot.

I could see x/c or x/r 876, depending on villain's aggressiveness and snow frequency. In this scenario both seem high so I call down. There are almost no villains that I fold the turn to (only if super passive w value and would never snow here) bc sometimes hands like 876 will x/r turn and check river

Ok UTG D2 range is:

Premium Two Card Draws (234, 235, 245, 237, 247, 257)

Good Two Card Draws (267, 236, 246, 256, 238, 248, 258)

Adequate?

Now what hands are we considering that he was turning into snows from the above range? Any time he makes trip deuces? I mean he is turning stuff like 22237 into a snow or just the bottom of his range like 22258?

I'll run the equity/win% with whatever assumptions is fed to me.

But in this scenario, I would disagree that a good player has a high snow frequency versus a strong 1cd draw range that is pat. Draws like 22237 still hold a lot of value. And villain never started with three deuces because who snows by drawing 2? In addition, even when you get three deuces after the first draw your opponent still re-raised you before the first draw so given Bayes Theorem he will often hold the case deuce even though you block three.

Exactly accounting for card removal we have a win % of 22.5% vs a two to pat range (of my range above) and assuming villain c/r's all 876 or better. This is with no snows or complete BS built in. So it looks like with pot odds we need around 20% so under this set it would be a call down.

In practice though I still think it's a fold as I don't think there are many if any snows here at all. He's never starting with garbage so what is he turning into a snow? And many are c/calling the 876. At least from my experience at stakes like this in this situation someone is mostly c/r'ing hands that beat us and check/calling hands that don't. (and some not even c/ring some hands that beat us) Assumptions here are critical obviously.

If you think you have your opponent's range pinned down pretty well and it crushes you mostly , I don't think where you are in your own range is a key consideration. Where you are in your range plays a vital role in many spots in 27TD but not this imo


As far as meta, I don't mind at all if people are encouraged to go after me when I have a strong 1cd range and pat early. The equity overlay here even with 876 always C/r'ing is so slight that eschewing it and having some spazz go after us at wrong time is worth more than what you think you are preserving in the middle here.

No benefits meta or money wise always tapping the table, nodding, and muttering, "nice hand"...

thanks for the comments and analysis, as always, guys!

What is snow?

Snowing is a multi-street bluff where you bet or raise with no showdown value with a hand that contains blockers (so your opponent is unlikely to have or make a solid pat hand).

An example from a recent session: I'm dealt 884xx in BB and defend for 1 more bet. I keep 84 and draw 228.

Since I've seen a 4, three deuces, and three 8's, this is a good spot to c/r and barrel.