From a stream of 20/40 8game, reggy table:
6 handed utg raises, Hero on btn 3b with 86543, utg calls
1st draw: 1/0
Flop: x/b/c
2nd draw: 1/0
Turn: x/b/r/c
3rd draw: 0/0
River: x/x

Thoughts on not 3b turn or bet river?

In the aggregate you would be value owning yourself by 3betting the turn

I would bet the river though

3-betting turn is quite bad - you get worse hands to break and get annihilated by better.

Definitely should bet river though barring specific history with villain screwplaying river.

Whose streaming mix?

This was from a jcarver (Jason Somerville) vod circa 2016.

Idk much about him, but I've heard he is not a nit when it comes to jumping into games where he might not be +ev and that he is also self-deprecating about his non-NLHE play. I remember playing in those games at that time for a few mos when I was travelling and I thought he played ok for someone who didn't play a lot of 8g. Only mistake I can see is not betting the river. Granted, this coming from my POV as a rec/reg who barely knows how to play half the games myself. There will prob be some more mid/hi mix game twitch streamers showing up soon, if I had to guess.

What sort of hands make sense for villain here? I can see confusing myself into checking in hero’s spot, though agree betting probably is right.

Do we have any 3betting range on turn as played up to this point? Maybe a very polarized range of 7s (so people are still drawing dead or very thin when they break) and snows that don't want to give up (assuming we ever snow this way patting from the start; I could see us breaking 77222 even vs. a draw 1).

If we bet river, what do we expect to be called by? Having not raised turn it doesn't seem like we can have snows. Does villain check any 8? I guess we need to get called by 87s. Also depends then on how often villain should check strong hands to go for the check/raise (and what do we do vs the x/r?). Jcarver's explanation in stream was that he felt he'd need to be called by 9s to make it a river bet and thought 9s wouldn't call.

villain holding a strong UTG D1 hand and check/raising patting with a 9 is a dumb play

I’d pigeon villain as mostly having pretty decent 87s mostly with some sliver of slightly better along with those hands looking to c/r. Think the criteria of betting and having the best hand>50% is met.

Construct his range, guess what hands he would c/r, then estimate your win %, if this is greater than around 65% you should 3bet

You should never go after a UTG open with a snow with 3 deuces because given that he opened UTG he still mostly has one

Think he calls any 87 he c/r with all the time, especially online

To clarify the last 2 posts, you think villain most likely has an 8 or better, will call with all worse 8s, and that's sufficient to make us bet?

I will note result: villain had T8lo (can't recall the rest of the cards). Thoughts on villains play?

Well I mean construct his range and try to estimate your win % based upon that and how he is playing the hand. I do not know how all villains play but most have a strong D1 range from UTG so when he c/rs he has a strong uncapped range particularly if he c/c weak eights. Estimate of the top of my head thinks it’s less than 40 your hand is good. Maybe closer to 30%

But once he checks river the equation changes as it changes his range

I do not like his play although slightly better with a T than a 9 as he might be targeting breakable or foldable nines? Who knows, just c/c and draw

It’s possible the river bet doesn’t have enough value even though we have the best hand the majority of the time but I think it does

Key mistake to avoid would be refraining from 3b turn