Hand from a stream, $20/40 8game mix.

Predraw: Hero opens btn 832xx, bb calls
1st draw: 2/2
Flop: bb checks, we check back unimproved (paired 2)
2nd draw: 0/2
Turn: bb bets, we raise with 86532, bb 3bets, we call
3rd draw: 0/0
River: bb checks, Hero?

I presume this is an easy bet based on absolute hand strength, but what's our worst hand we bet here.

Also on turn, should we always raise here? Or is this a good freeze candidate because I'd estimate when bb doesn't lead flop, he's more polarized to really good hands, although hard to say if snows are less or more without the lead (because maybe he decides to snow when he reads our check back flop as weak). Should we ever 4 bet here?

As played, would bet river but it seems quite thin and vs many opponents check could be better.

Mind sharing the stream?

as a nitty novice i bet this, prob get c/r'd then post on 2+2

Hand is WP, IMO. I would bet river with anything down to #8 because #9 should be a reasonably large part of his range with your bonus 2.

Turns out I misremembered the hand and the true hand was a bit of a closer spot. Real hand is:

Jcarver opened 872xx
Then made 87532

So we get 3bet on turn and we have to decide to break or pat whereas the 86 was an easy pat.

Then river also closer whether or not to bet. Revised thoughts?

There is a case for 4! Especially if that is the cap, since villain could choose to break a better 8.

As played would check.

I’ve very rarely seen a villain break a better hand and we don’t want him to break a worse hand, so I think a 4 bet is spewing. The late position raise, BB defend will widen the BB cr range to include a lot of 9s ime. But w 87532, I would xb the river. I think the BB could be taking the whiffed xr line and subsequent 3 bet w plenty of weaker hands than ours, trying to get us to break. But I’d guesstimate we aren’t doing great against his 3 bet/pat/check oop range

While I think we get called most of the times we are ahead, I think the chances of getting xr coupled w the chances we get called and lose make it a xb. If we know we aren’t ever getting xr (either bc the BB doesn’t have that line in his arsenal or via another read, I’d prob bet the river, blocking an 8 and 7 and unblocking all the 9s

Disagree w all this. The dynamic of both players having gone 2 to pat at some point in the hand means less trust and more thin value. Nobody is breaking 87 perfect here (nor should they) and it’s only one combo to target anyway with 875. I’d rather raise / 4 bet 98432 if I wanted to semibluff. Bet river people rarely go for check raise.

I actually think river is a check as I think people go for a check raise here at a somewhat hi frequency. However, they are also check folding here at a pretty high frequency. I just think there is an extremely narrow range of hands that can bet/3b turn then also check call our bet as well. If we assume they never b/3b #10 or worse here then were pretty much break even and indifferent to all 86, get cr by 85 and better sometimes and have them check fold weak stuff a lot.

Of course this all goes out the window if they can have 87 here ever or decide to talk themselves into a call with 9x on the end