Quote:
Originally Posted by SpewArtist
You going to Xcall pat every T9? Because that's a lot of combos. I guess T8 rough makes sense but we can't have too many combos that xcall pat or we are gonna wind up hella weak on rivers way too often and its easy for IP to play perfect vs us.
Some good questions and why I like participating, anyhow suppose you have 238, were re-raised pre draw and your opponent has been drawing one the entire time with 2457 and of course a bet going in on every street.
There is around a 1.6% probability of drawing T9 which is the same probability of drawing a 96 for a 98632. Let's clear that up in case you thought there were more T9s. A two to pat range is uniform, not top heavy in case there was confusion about that.
If you draw to the 2389 you have around 29% equity and your opponent has an easy pat with 2457T. But this is something you would do as you preserve around .80 big bets. In theory you will lose around .25 of a big bet on the river due to the inferior draw if everything is playing the river normal.
When you keep the 2389T you have 39% if he keeps the 2457T but assuming he breaks which I assume he will your equity goes up to 43.5%.
Now this equity difference is substantial as you now preserve an additional .80 of a big bet from your decision to stay pat. The pure equity jump should alleviate concerns. I'm never calling river obviously with T9 as you allude to you must call a bit more possibly with other hands..but overall I'm assuming you more than make out. But I'd gamble his bluffing frequency does not increase in reality, although even if it does the math appears to more than check out.
Wouldn't mind a double check of numbers...SmallBalls seems pretty good at it
Last edited by ScotchOnDaRocks; 11-08-2018 at 02:08 AM.