I’m curious what the consensus may be for this somewhat common spot. I will share my answer later as I have a line in my head...

You are heads up on the turn vs a seemingly competent opponent, the second draw went 2-1, he checks you bet and now he calls and stands pat in front of you (2 to pat but doesn’t check raise). So what do we pat behind and what do we break? Sample hands to consider might be 97432, T5432, 98762, T8732, or some other borderline hand maybe? I assume no jack needs to be in the discussion.

97432 too likely to be good and not patting breaks off too much equity

T5432,unfortunately we completely unblock 98s here and block worse tens. Think we break.

98672, unblock tens, no good draw. Pat

T8732. Block tens, unblock mines, decent draw, break.
Possibly go for bluff here by patting turn and betting river?

Admittedly haven’t put any work into this, but I would:

1) pat behind and probably bet river
2) pat behind (I’m guessing straight draw is a larger factor than 10 blocker, but I could be wrong)
3) draw
4) draw

Feel like #2 is the hardest, against some it would definitely be a break.

Small Balls, why would you break 98762?
Aren't better 9s (the reason for breaking) discounted because we hold a 9?

Let's ignore bluffing for now as it complicates the situation significantly. But neither can we simply treat it like an all-in spot in a tournament, the river betting certainly affects our decision (and the perceived range of the OOP guy).

Reason I bring this all up is it seems like a relatively simple question but people seem to disagree pretty drastically here, and also I am not sure myself and I am very experienced at this game.

Ok not to cloud it all I definitely break

Regarding betting on the river our range is uncapped but his is relatively capped.
Some players may pay here relatively strong for the situation such as with some 87s either out of inexperienced passivity or a conscious effort to strengthen up their range here slightly.

Now if we break we can often expect to gain a bet on the river. So if our perceived win % by patting is with 10-20% of breaking we should break.

But I think no amount of experience nor study will help master this as so many OOP players play this spot differently as it’s not easy for them

Experience matters a lot though in these spots especially when playing live.

In this exact situation I once had 86432 and obv patted and bet river but the older rec had 85432. Obv my bet was not a mistake but 97432 versus this player type probably would have been. But you can possibly pat bluff T8762 vs this guy

Online 97432 is the near nuts. Recently I patted bluff T8763 and it failed...as a bluff and succeeded as a value bet vs a T9

I could not disagree more with this. You have to have a default play. Am I the only one that thinks of what my exact borderline hand would be in some situation?

No you are not the only person that has thought about this spot. And it's never just simply thinking about it, it's solving it.

But sure we can come up with a default and an exact borderline hand and given one specific set of assumptions it's a 3-4 minute exercise to calculate the borderline hand. I've done immense work on break/pat decisions when it was 1/1 after 1st draw and our opponent bets the turn and is pat. But that situation is much more easily examinable as their play is more coonsistent as you go from player to player.


But in this 2/1 spot players are all over the map and non linear regarding their strategy so I don't think it's that valuable to calculate the specific breakpoint because my read of the particular player or just the type of game I'm in if I'm readless is immensely more important in the closer decisions.


But yeah, a broad default is cool and would be interested in what yours is.


However, three of these seemed really simple given the simple notion that are opponent is often playing a 9 or a ten so when we block tens and not 9s we should tend to break and vice versa. Only decisions are hands in 98 range I would imagine

Just to add that any break point would not only depend on his check/call and check/raise pat ranges but the size of the pot and the distribution of his D2 range. Someone’s two to pat range looks a lot different when it originated from early position and almost always contains a deuce vs that of a wider D2 range that defended the BB

Had wanted to bring this up as a separate issue at some point but think it fits ok in here as it deals with OOP player's strategy


Abdalla in Upswing Course advocates check/calling and patting a 97 which is Ok I guess but many players are c/r'ing that. But he also says you should just Check/call and break a 97 with smooth draw that blocks 9s and unblocks 8.


I get what he's thinking but I'd be surprised if he looked at the math because the blockers don't have a big effect and even with them you are still breaking off over a big bet in equity if the pot was re-raised. Certainly river betting is a consideration but over a big bet is hard to make up but if that is the position than it should clarified.

But it's also another example on how the OOP range is all over the place.

To answer this we should be considering the default range that villain will X-call pat.

Whats a X-call pat range look like here for OOP?
Seems like hands that would want to X-call pat are hands that can't break? Im speculating here but thats why I included most hands with str8 draws.
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T7s & T6s w/str8 draw - T7654 T7653 T7643 T7543 T6543

Some 98s & 97s w/ str8 draw - 98764 98754 97654 97653 97643 97543

96543?

Any 87 in here? (possibly would want to include one or two?)
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Really just guessing here but if we can come up with some kind of baseline for OOP taking this line then we can develop the perfect counter for IP.

Thoughts on this range?
Seems maybe too wide, I'm not sure what hands in it would want to go for XR instead of X-call pat tho.

Guessing is very tough as many top players have completely different theories on how to handle these spots and therefore you can only imagine the wide variation you would run into with different recs

Would be very happy to help demonstrate how to calculate a breakpoint given a set of assumptions

However I would not describe that as a perfect counter. There is no such thing which was the point I made to DD.

That’s not to say though we can’t colloborate on what is most typical line for OOP and create a default from that. But I doubt we would agree on that OOP default and if applied universally you may make many big mistakes

Regarding your range think OOP would tend to c/c pat T8 with rough draw underneath and T9, then what about the other 97s?

But then again, I’ve been c/r and have looked at T, Js, and Qs lots of times. It might be 50/50 with how players play 98s so it’s tough to come up with default range

You going to Xcall pat every T9? Because that's a lot of combos. I guess T8 rough makes sense but we can't have too many combos that xcall pat or we are gonna wind up hella weak on rivers way too often and its easy for IP to play perfect vs us.

- - DD-- you care to share your range that x-call pats in this spot?

Can't we just find the median hand that X-call pats?

This will at least give us a base and then we can adjust accordingly after that.

When I answered this I only had a few minutes to kill and didn't properly think it through. After giving it some more thought, I would now break T5432 and freeze with 98762.

Some good questions and why I like participating, anyhow suppose you have 238, were re-raised pre draw and your opponent has been drawing one the entire time with 2457 and of course a bet going in on every street.

There is around a 1.6% probability of drawing T9 which is the same probability of drawing a 96 for a 98632. Let's clear that up in case you thought there were more T9s. A two to pat range is uniform, not top heavy in case there was confusion about that.


If you draw to the 2389 you have around 29% equity and your opponent has an easy pat with 2457T. But this is something you would do as you preserve around .80 big bets. In theory you will lose around .25 of a big bet on the river due to the inferior draw if everything is playing the river normal.


When you keep the 2389T you have 39% if he keeps the 2457T but assuming he breaks which I assume he will your equity goes up to 43.5%.

Now this equity difference is substantial as you now preserve an additional .80 of a big bet from your decision to stay pat. The pure equity jump should alleviate concerns. I'm never calling river obviously with T9 as you allude to you must call a bit more possibly with other hands..but overall I'm assuming you more than make out. But I'd gamble his bluffing frequency does not increase in reality, although even if it does the math appears to more than check out.

Wouldn't mind a double check of numbers...SmallBalls seems pretty good at it

I’d say best hand is like some 97? And worst hand is QJ. Scotch’s last post is really good. It feels icky but our pat hands have a lot of equity.

My answer to the original question is I would pat behind with T6- and break T7 vs an unknown.

Back to original question when someone pats after c/c they usually have a 9 or a T. There are some outliers like a weak 87 or some jacks but will assume they cancel out and ignore them.

Going to assume we are readless and not playing in games with any prevalent trends such as an online game where pat 9s are often checkraised.

A few facts to lean on with no reads:

1) When you hold a T it is 15% more likely your opponent has a 9, when you hold a 9 it is 15% more likely your opponent has a T.

2) Someone is much more likely to c/c pat a 97 then a T7, same for 98 and T8. Thus as a whole our opponent more weighted to 9s.


My default would be to pat any 9s, and break any Ts.


T5432 is a tough decision. Against someone who c/r's 9s it is the nuts. 2345 is not a great draw as there are less cards to help you. But given the two facts above with no reads, I would break.

Although I also think the 98762 is a very tough decision

The fact that we block a nine and unblock a ten is one factor leaning towards patting, however it loses to almost all other 9s

Against a big blind D2 calling range it is probably a clear pat as there are more rougher Ts that are kept

But against a stronger D2 range your opponent will often have breakable T7 and T8s thus less Ts


So need to weigh the cost of potentially breaking the best hand vs the reduced probability of tens due to factor #2, perhaps there is some math to look at here

Too late to edit, but slight brain cramp this morning

When you hold a T, it is around 33% more likely your opponent holds a 9. And vice versa

This is a quick visual representation of a two to pat ten range coming from a strong D2 range, for example when someone comes in from UTG or HJ and D2s

234 5t 6t 7t 8t 9t
235 4t 6t 7t 8t 9t
236 4t 5t 7t 8t 9t
237 4t 5t 6t 8t 9t
245 3t 6t 7t 8t 9t
246 3t 5t 7t 8t 9t
247 3t 5t 6t 8t 9t
238 4t 5t 6t 7t 9t
248 3t 5t 6t 7t 9t
258 3t 4t 6t 7t 9t

Unfortunately the color coding I entered does not come through but much of this is c/c and break meaning his range is more heavily weighted towards nines. Maybe he is patting T9, T87, T5432, T6432, and T6532?

Therefore against this range I would break T5432 and 98762..as far as nine maybe go down to 98752 we break?


However, if he called from the BB a D2 range is weaker and thus more pats

Which would you pay and bet? I’d probably bet the 97 but not the T6

None