Cash game spot, 6 handed, assume all competent players:

Predraw: utg opens, btn calls, hero calls bb with 754QQ

First draw: 2/2/2

Flop: Hero leads with 87542, utg calls, btn calls

Second draw: 0/1/1

Turn: Hero bets, utg calls, btn raises, hero calls, utg calls

Third draw: hero? Pat the 8 or draw to the nuts?

I would call and pat. Also I’d xr first round mostly.
Edit: nm misread hand twice.

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i was thinking call and pat too, but i'm not so sure now.
pros: we're pretty far up in our range
cons: i don't see many worse hands raising for value or as bluffs as btn should be smooth.
i don't like folding river, but i also don't see us ever being good if we call.
like, should villain ever bet river with anything worse?

Might cause some controversy but I would have folded preflop. Without a deuce you are building a dog chit hand out of position against two players. Judging from action two are out. So there’s that.

As played I would have gone for a checkraise.

For current predicament very tough to say. No strong feeling either way but don’t mind breaking in this multiway pot

yeah, i guess breaking is just too exploitable. i can see villain making a raise with a 4card hand that picked up pairs or straights as you should have a lot of unbreakable hands that will fold turn. i'm not sure how good this is, but doesn't seem that bad, really.
i think the main question is calling river. seems like we have to, but how are we ever good?

Seems like this is harder because we did not check/raise flop. I know it was all D2 but in my experience lead pats tend to be weaker. Seems like that’s a factor.

i didn't think there was really much difference in lead:c/r ranges. imo, i can go either way, tho default is c/r. utg is going to be raising a lot of d1's, so we can b/3 with strong portion.

Well at the very least our two to pat range is weaker since we were in BB. Ok with either patting or breaking. I would break though. Heavy player dependent though. Some players would never dream of breaking.

I had thought it was a standard bet out with the pat hand after 2/2/2. Btn will check back when unimproved and may not even bet some d1's if they're to an 87 due to it being 3 way. Can someone elaborate on your reasoning for check/raising flop? Do we have any lead range?

Also, more of the hand:

Third draw: 1/1/0

River: hero checks with 87542, utg checks, btn bets, hero?

Flop I don't really care if you k/r or lead.
Really don't like breaking here. You're just not beat often enough to justify going for the small amount of equity that you gain by breaking correctly vs the humongous amount that you're giving up when you're wrong.

Flop both players behind you are supposed to bet any improvement. If they both check back it's not a big deal. You'll obviously just pat and bet the turn. This can be balanced with snows and your opponent will assume that you missed a ch/r

I mostly xr when I’m pat in this spot but lead a bit with all portions of my range to make sure I have pat hands taking both lines. I do think most people have weaker lead/pat ranges than xr pat ranges. Although I’m not sure how aware most villains are of that.

i think its often the opposite in multway pots. people dont want to face middle guy with 2 bets with big hands and want to thin field with wekaer ones

How often do you feel we are beat here?

I don’t think your equity situation is great no matter how you slice it.

Say you are beat 70% of the time. Do we have a disagreement on the ball park of that number? 70% zero equity. 30% we have probably at most 70% equity due to other guy in pot. So that’s 21% equity. Plus many would feel the need to call river when almost certainly never good.

Not going full bore on breaking but I don’t feel the need to hold on to this to avoid being exploited. We will have unbreakable hands to pat as well as strong hands. But this strong draw is a hand I would break.

i'm thinking now that btn should put us on a rough hand being that he knows at least 2 deuces are dead and that he can make us fold a lot if we're unbreakable (which is likely), and obviously break if we're breaking one of our stronger hands.
villain's only losing an extra .25BB in ev for a chance to gain at least 1.75BB immediately once we fold. and that's if he's still drawing.
if we call and break, and he's still drawing, he gains back the .25BB that he would've lost if he called and drawn vs your pat.

Sounds like you disagree with the 70%. On the flip side to what you said hands better than 87 are not incredibly hard to make. I’m not sure many villains are banking on two deuces being dead, but I think a 30% make a play factor is kind of high and I think is enough of a cushion to build that in. But against some villains I would never break but those guys are obvious as they always try and make plays like that

We can debate that 70% but even if it’s lower you are not in a great equity situation no matter what. Even when good and last guy draws still need to fade two guys who are likely drawing live.

But if you really think he’s making a play often enough that you do not break this hand then you should not fold unbreakable eights. Those are the hands you call and stay pat with it seems.

i don't think this thread can really go anywhere without some sort of agreement on what hero's bb d2 defense range is or how it's perceived.
it seems like you are advocating folding all non deuce hands unless they have an 8 (maybe also 345), and the other posters seem to advocate for defending as wide or close to 457, as i saw no comments about pre. if this is true, there is a huge disparity in preflop ranges, and greatly effects what villain is likely to do

I’m probably alone in folding hands like 753, though I am calling 843 because it’s not as deuce dependent

But don’t think that’s a big factor, people obviously don’t know what they fold.

It’s mostly the mathematics of how likely someone has a hand vs a play given that they raise. 30% seems like a large cushion.

But I think some would be surprised how close the equities would look with breaking vs patting even when you lowered the 70%. If you had the best hand and the button had 22347 still need to fade two draws. So you lose some equity but not as much as you think here, pick up some equity when you are beat and actually have a chance to win money on the river.

And the fact that you do have a deuce makes it essentially impossible someone has seen three deuces and more unlikely someone has seen two which makes his made hand probability go up

Unless he’s a spazz but we’ve all agreed we pat against them

I agree with this. But as played, pat call