8/16.
4 players. i don't know anything about villain in this hand.

i open 8763 UTG, BTN folds, SB calls, BB folds. we're HU.

2-1

J8763.
he checks, i bet, he calls.

1-1

98763.
he leads into me. not sure what to do but here are my general thoughts.

- if he has a 9 or even a 10 here, he should be leading, right?
- based on that alone, it should be ok to call/d1?
- however, if he improved to virtually any 8 i'm losing so there's a big RIO factor here for me in a hand i still have yet to make

thoughts? thanks

i think i'd raise/fold. i don't think he should be leading a T.

given pf he should be more likely to be drawing smooth in this hand.

Some people only bet out here with their weaker pat hands that aren't great enough to c/r.

So it could be a great spot to raise to get 97 smooth to break.

However since we have hands with better breakability in our range i'd rather choose that part of our range to make the play unless I have a solid read on villains range here.

Going readless here I don't expect to see the average player leading a T in this spot and I'd just fold this bottom of range pat hand with no draw. If he bets out all his pat hands here even up to a T you are still behind most of that. (ignoring our known cards) 8 cards make him a 7, 4 an 8, 4 a 9, and 4 a T. so 16 out of 20 cards that improved him to a bet and you have 20% equity vs that range.

You rarely see people in your position and this action fold here so I don't expect to see many bluffs from villains in these spots.

Basically so many words to say I think it's fold readless.

Agree with dboy that his range should be stronger given that he called from the SB.

Probably just fold. In general make a note if anyone leads tens or jacks as that is non standard and impacts your strategy.

Would maybe raise sometimes if I had T8763 if the pot was bigger. You unblock nines which is essentially what you are trying to get to break.

That's a great point i hadn't considered about us blocking the 9 we are targeting. Definitely adds to needing a better read to try the raise to force break play.

Also I feel like if we are readless villain is too and people tend not to make close breaks readless.

I would fold against most players and raise against people who you think will break too often. this isn't the best hand to go for a break with (I would generally prefer a convertible ten), but it's reasonable against the right opponent.

thinking about it more, i don't think villain should be leading 9's either. maybe raising is a massive spew vs unknown.

yea true. I do see a lot of c/c patting with 9s here. They don't wanna risk more than 1 bet going it with em.

why not? They should definitely be leading nines. If you don't you will either be giving out a free card most of the time. And if you check and they bet are you breaking?

Raising the convertible ten (even as good as something like 2347T?) used to be my play figuring that if I got re-raised or called (and they stood pat) I had a hand to draw to.

But my preference evolved to raising rougher tens that could easily fold to a re-raise like the T8762.


When you raise the T2347 one of two things happen:

1) You get re-raised or called and put in extra money with the worst of it, albeit with a draw to fall back on but still

2) You get called and they break. That's what you are hoping for certainly but still only around a 60% favorite and in a sense I felt like I was "wasting" a premium draw


Neither one of those two are that good. I'd rather be pat with T8762 than T7432.

Yeah I guess I didn't mean the absolute best convertible tens, but I did mean T8-smooth. Those are probably my favorite hands to do it with. T8-rough is a cute hand to have in a freeze-bluff range

So what do you do now with premium Ts, just call and d1?

Yes

vs 2 draws, you're 48% on trout. i remember dd talking about these spots, and how he couldn't figure out a better way to play them besides c/c pat. maybe that's old school now and there is a better way?

disclaimer, i thought you were suggesting discarding the T vs a villain drawing 1. If that isn't what you meant disregard everything below this.

If you just meant calling and discarding the T vs a pat I totally agree.

I did some equity calcs on twodimes

keeping pat T vs worse 1cd

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=11533780
pokenum -l27 7s 5s 4s 2c th - 8s 7h 2d 3h / ac
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 42 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 5s 4s 2c Th 28 66.67 14 33.33 0 0.00 0.667
8s 2d 7h 3h 14 33.33 28 66.67 0 0.00 0.333


discarding T and having the best 1cd

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=11533779
pokenum -l27 7s 5s 4s 2c / th - 8s 7h 2d 3h / ac
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 1722 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 5s 4s 2c 929 53.95 793 46.05 0 0.00 0.539
8s 2d 7h 3h 793 46.05 929 53.95 0 0.00 0.461


I agree it is usually easier to play river by not keeping the T but I don't think that's enough to go from 66.7% equity to 54%

My default even with a J in position is to freeze and pat it behind a 1cd.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=11533782
pokenum -l27 7s 5s 4s 2c jh - 8s 7h 2d 3h / ac
5-card Draw 2-7 Lowball: 42 enumerated outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 5s 4s 2c Jh 24 57.14 18 42.86 0 0.00 0.571
8s 2d 7h 3h 18 42.86 24 57.14 0 0.00 0.429

57% for keeping the jack, and the same 54% for drawing.

I could be convinced it's worth ditching the J to make river decisions easier and have the better implied odds to make up for the equity we give up, but I don't know about tossing the Ts here.

Oh if he’s drawing I keep the T7

I’m not sure what situation you are talking about but a 9 is a slight 53ish favorite over the course of two draws. Don’t think there was any doubt about betting a nine.

I do however recall a discussion about patting a ten OOP when the action went check/check or perhaps it was in a 2/1 when you were D2 and made a ten. Anyhow I’m pretty sure the discussion probably centered on tens.

making a 9 OOP here is always a tough spot. A lot of people will autobet this IP even if they still need 1 card. If both players know that's the case and you just c/c pat your hand is face up.

If he only bets when he improves to pat it's easier and you can just donk lead all your pat range here (this also exploits him by getting a free card a lot OOP when you both need 1). I suppose you could do that vs an autobetter too but it doesn't seem optimal to me since most your pat hands will actually be ok putting in more than 1 bet.


I honestly don't have a default play here with a pat 9 OOP, I just try to make a decision on the fly considering any recent meta with villain.

Yea i totally realized that after i did the equity calcs. Figured i'd go ahead and post it anyway for people that didn't know the odds on that spot.

i guess i'm running the sim wrong. i think it's assuming i'm breaking? i have 98763 vs 2347, 2 draws left and gave both 9's for pat. what am i doing wrong?
@dboy: our hand is gonna be face up on river whether we bet/pat/check or c/c/pat/check. maybe a slight difference? i'm assuming we're betting river with any 8 in both cases?
also, if villain only bets when improved, wouldn't we be still be better off checking and breaking if he bets?

what program are you using to run sims? Is there one for badeucy/badacey?

actually maybe if he only bets improved, probably still pat and check/fold if he pats behind?
troutulator. no, there's only badugi.

yea you are right that our hand becomes known once we check pat 9 OOP on the river.

So I guess you could default to c/c turn, pat, c/decide river if he pats behind. Leaning towards a fold unless he is a creative type.

On the surface it feels exploitable to always c/c, c/f our 9s OOP vs a pat hand but people probably don't bluff that spot enough, or even pat worse hands enough to have a range available to bluff us with.