2-7 TD: Draw to 9 for final draw?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,860
Unknown villain. I play pretty straightforwardly.
Pre:
UTG folds, I open 256-QT, CO/BTN/SB folds BB calls.
First:
2/2
256-5Q
He leads, I call.
Second:
1/2
25699
He bets again.
Usually I just muck here but I wonder if I'm missing out on any opportunities here given it's an auto bet for him and I have position and two 9s.
Instinctively I worry about the times he pats and then I make a 9 and he bets anyway, or I make say a 98 and can't be sure I can make a value bet.
Thoughts? Thanks
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,333
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 646
tough one. i have thought a long time about draw one to a 9 and won't bore you with any math but when I do draw one to a 9 its usually a 987x.
You have a top 10 2 card draw but I like to fold here but that's just my default play as well.
Here's some food for thought: I did come to the conclusion that you can do a draw two with this hand IF the pot is big enough (it's not); but this whole 3-2-1 rule has exceptions.
Basically if it was headsup and 5 bet preflop we can take a draw 2 i think?
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 7,200
In this spot you usually have around 28% equity and even though this pot is small you are getting a decent overlay to continue getting 4.25 to 1.
As you state it is always important to consider river betting when making turn decisions.
EV of folding is zero but by calling the turn you are “preserving” around .4 big bets from what is in the middle. Now when the draws go 1/1 you will probably lose a tiny bit back say .05 or .1 due to your inferior draw. But loss is mitigated due to position.
As far as your river questions postflop I would tend to be folding this on the river if he was pat and betting the river. If he was pat and he checks to you on river you have a check back with 98. But if it went 1/1 you have a clear value bet.