Hand is 3-way.

I open button 346
SB folds
BB 3-bets
I call

1:2. 346KK.

He bets, I call

pat:2 I now have 23469

He bets. I (?)


Feels like my hand's good enough to value raise for the times he's just patting his 9's or T's, and I can occasionally can get an opponent to break a junky 8 (though maybe I'm too optimistic on that?)

But additionally it's not like i don't have a nice draw still to something that beats most everything he has, barring a smooth 8 or a 7.

Thoughts? Thanks.

Fold pre.

Call and draw 1 as played

He 3B pre and is now patting and you block a 9. He likely has an 8 or better I'd think.

No this hand is a good button open. I think freezing is probably right but I can see a case for breaking.

For sure open button, and once you open don't fold to the raise.

If you've seen him quick pat garbagey hands then I freeze. If you've only seen him pat Eights-plus then you should play it D1. I would raise if I made the 86 and call down if 3b. it gets weird if he also pats unbreakable Nines or Tens as well as Eights OTF because then it's a freeze again, and against some you can even find a bet on the river if he checks it.

Without reads, I would freeze and bet river if checked to.

Raising turn prob not great bc he’s never breaking worse against a BTn open 2:2at.

The only case for breaking your 9 that I can think of is that BB 3! D1 is usually a strong D1 and not usually like 3569x 4569x 4568x, but that speculation is partially nullified by the fact you opened BTn 3 handed and will have a lot of D2 like you have here. So I’m prob not breaking and if he bets river after we freeze, id call and expect to lose

I don't understand this. Isn't it better than if he would break worse?

I'd open the 346, as far as D2 draws go and some analysis I have done I have it ranked slightly better than 378,467, and 568

I get that we are getting 7.5 to 1 odds on the flop but given we started out at the bottom of the range and got KK on the first draw I think it's time for a somewhat rare flop fold.

If he didn't improve we are around a 2 to 1 dog. If he improved we are a huge dog. For example, if he has 87652 we are around a 9 to 1 dog. Given our lack of blockers it is more likely he improved, though I haven't crunched the numbers to get a "blended" estimate of how big of a dog we are but there is not a tremendous overlay against the 7.5 to 1 odds. We won't always realize the equity we have and we also will experience RIO. So we need a decent overlay even if he has a fair amount of snows.


As far as the turn, I don't see a reason to raise. I think as played I would just call and pat but that's a tough decision. If he bets the river in theory we have to call some of the time but given our hand and cards we have seen I don't think this is one of those times.

He probably meant break better

awesome responses, thanks, guys!


how should i be interpreting this line in his spot? the button open 2 : 2 : pat

Basically agree with all this. Bb will have a ton of rough 4 cArds he will quick pat. This seems like a calldown vs anyone.

Steaks and game condition matter imo. This is not as true at small stakes or with rec players not finely tuned to the game. Those players generally have good D1s when they 3b.

wouldn't unrefined players be more willing to 3b/cap rougher d1's?

You can create a spreadsheet that takes both ranges into account and also that cards you’ve seen to analyze Pat/break decisions

I’ve created one but it’s on my laptop which I dont have available for a few days

The weaker players in the pool I'm most familiar with (barring specific maniacs) would 3b/cap some "poor" D1s with straight draws (3456, 2456, 3457), would normally break down 98 or 97 draws to D2. If you pay close attention to showdown hands it's often possible to deduce precise opening hands.

At least that's what I tell myself.