6 handed, blinds are 6/12.000 antee 3.000

effective stack is about 570.000

CO opens 27.000 with 98432

btn (bigger stack) 3b for 67.000 with T8653

CO goes all in. What would you think about this shove, in general?

(I don't know about payouts and players dynamics, BTN folded)

Seems fine. What do you think he should do?

^^

I don't know. But for sure I'd consider just calling

Standard imo.

Certainly not losing money by pushing but would imagine we can probably make more money by making a 3bet that is not all in.

Something that may keep in worse pats but charge the draws enough.

I don’t play the game that much anymore but around 150Kish? Maybe need to go abit more, I don’t know

I would never just call though

Upon further consultation with my cerebrum I think I prefer a 3bet to 160K, then bet out 120K after the draw regardless on whether he was pat or drawing. The bet after the draw serves the dual purpose of offering a really good price for worse pats to call whether they were dealt initially or drawn and makes him go all in to bluff.

I think in the future though it's better for discussion if you don't tell us what the button had.

By shoving here we deny the equity and the positional advantage to good draws, which isn't little.

We also stack off the few worse nine left and, maybe, some very good T... and this is maybe to little for a shove.. we are playing for stack at a high buyin MTT FT when we are not that short, villain will give us credit for a genuin hand, and when he calls he will have us beat prob to often.

Another cons is we deny villain the possibility to continue with a possible bluff. This is a late position spot, from a bigger stack that knows he can apply preassure because of the payouts. In his range there should also be non top draws, snows and weak pat hand to turn into a bluff once we pat postdraw.

Yes you are right, next time I will, thanks a lot for replaying

Well the chances we are beat are around .7% so by far the most likely scenario is he just folds. Maybe we might get worse nines to call but people get skittish with huge bets and we block nines.

Calling allows him to realize his equity cheap and lets him completely off the hook with nines and tens.

That’s why I settled on a non huge reraise to go for more value. Is there more risk? Yes there is but it seems like best way to win a little more against a certain part of his range

We’re beat far more often than .7% fwiw.

But if you want to lay me 100:1+ on somebody having better than pat 98 when they 3 bet me in single draw we can prob get a lot down for a fun prop (and I’m sure 3 bettin ranges even tighter 6 handed at a final table).

I did not phrase it clearly as well as I should have, I meant off the deal in a vacuum. Not given the fact that we are 3bet. And FWIW it is probably closer to 1%.

But anyway no bet, I know the numbers very well, even wrote about a long time ago when I played the game more often. Against a range of pat jacks or better we are probably good around 90% or better here

https://www.countingouts.com/deuce-t...and-decisions/

But I would suspect villain's range would also include many 1cd draws.


So my cerebrum indicated to me that I think overall we should maybe 3 bet small to get some action on the range that we beat. Small 3 bet may induce a shove where we have 70% (or greater) and that seems good enough for me. Final table can contain some lags especially in 2-7 NL with a lot of juice in pot and fold equity. Thoughts?


I'll let others crunch the math on how profitable the push is based upon their own assumptions.

I was pretty sure that’s what you meant. Just wanted to clarify for others as there is a big difference between expecting to have best pat hand 90% of time vs > 99%

Yeah, definitely thanks