Hand 1 - Easy pat pre-draw. Decent-sized mistake to break this hand, despite being an equity favorite whether we pat or D1.

Hand 2 - Much closer decision. I'm a little unclear as to whether this a huhu match (only you and one other player are playing), or whether only you and one other player have VPIP pre-draw. This isn't a preflop line check, as your decision point is occurring on the 2nd draw.

If it's huhu, BB is much more likely to have a rough D2, such as 854xx. If the hand is being played HU in a ring game, his D2 range will be much stronger.

huhu I'm going to pat the 97632 in position, due to how much weaker a pre-draw D2 range (that didn't 3b) is going to be.

In a ring game, against the stronger D2 pre-draw range (esp if it's a SB cc), I'm going to take whatever line exploits my opponent's specific tendencies the most. Some opponents will x/r/4! turn w #6 and others will x/c turn and pat #8.

The standard amongst online HS winners is to pat 97632 huhu in position, based on the given action.

Given your first HH, I'd recommend taking the standard line in position - going w the simple objective math and patting - until you have a better handle on your opponent's tendencies and which line will be most ev

Think OP described it as a HU match. Not a lot of people is folding any 8 draw on the turn as someone earlier said they might.

So basically the only advantage of patting is the ability to possibly getting one bet in on the turn as a 70% favorite. That is good, but when we get C/R we have 2 going in with around 12% equity if we break. Not good. And we could also be getting outplayed.

We also cannot neglect our positional advantage on the turn when we are both drawing. We have the ability to freeze our opponents and stay pat with tens while our OOP is limited. This reduces his realization a lot.

Lastly we can improve and get bets and raises in on the turn and river.

I don't even think this is close actually.

Edit to add: Regarding the turn bet unimproved. While it definitely should not be over used if you never bet UI it would be a mistake. If you have a strong draw and/or have seen many pair cards you should bet for value. It is limit poker so you need to push the bigger edges wherever you find them. Also a turn bet UI can make him break a hand like a ten.

You seem to rely on this stuff like this possibly too much. I remember we were talking about some D2 situations in another game and you said you were going to do research. I'm like sweet, let's do some analysis and model out some situations, but you just walked around a poker room and asked various people what they would do lol

Don't get me wrong, there is value in that. Obviously they do a lot of things right but that does not mean everything correct. And standards have evolved, and certain "flavors of month" have flamed out.

Maybe I'm wrong with some of my analysis, that is why I try and make my points in a clear fashion.. But "Joe Blow and Kate Blate do this and so should you" doesn't really advance anything

There's no need to deviate from standard play readless/no history.

Pat H1 and H2.

It’s not surprising to me that the guys that have played a lot of heads up prefer patting both here. In particular if you aren’t fist pump patting hand 1 I don’t like your heads up dynamics. I’m getting called down by tens and jacks a ton heads up (and they might not even be bad calls against me). If you play 90% of buttons you are gonna have a lot of snows and rough hands.

Yes certainly patting is highly profitable especially with these dynamics, not under dispute. So it is a fist pump, making money!

However if breaking is modeled out to be more profitable patting would be a mistake, that’s what I consider a mistake. I’m sure you realize that though, others may not be clear on that.

You guys are claiming it’s this monumental mistake to pat and it just isn’t.

What did you use to model out both lines?

How many big bets in EV would you consider to be a big mistake?

Just a quick few clarifying points, this is a huhu game, playing 5 games, I've maybe played 50hands lifetime huhu 2-7 at this point.

Hand number 2 we make 97632 after the 1st draw, so we have 2 draws left to go, apologizes for the confusing title that made some think we were dealt 97632,

You have a bad habit of attributing things to people which they did not say. This is the 2nd time in many, many posts I have referred to the standard of what top players do (which is what OP asked) to give the answer. I didn't "walk around a poker room and ask people".

I have played a lot of HU deuce online for meaningful stakes. I know you haven't, so maybe that's why you rely so much on these models that don't reflect what is actually going on in these games.

This is a huhu match and the key factors that makes HH2 a pat imo, is that 1) we are a mathematical favorite against a D1 over 2 draws and 2) BB did not 3b their D2 pre draw, capping that D2 range and making it much more likely that we can either fold out their rougher D1's, as OTR stated, or that BB could even end up drawing dead.

I've never been condescending in my posts to you and I've actually expressed my appreciation for your efforts in the 2p2 magazine. So please don't be condescending to me, w your "kate blate" and "lol" comments. Pretty much every experienced pro disagrees w you. In fact, here's one of the joe blow's I asked - just one of the best players on the forum . . .

i don't 3 bet any d2's hu. is this a huge mistake?

I don’t think so but I do think most opponents will huhu

You actually have been condescending to me in the past. But regardless I should have not returned the favor. So I do apologize!

You don't know what I have played but at the end it doesn't matter too much. This is going to sound cocky but has to be said, I've spent a decade leading a team doing projections that were all 100x more complex than this. Yeah maybe we can tweak call down assumptions etc but analyzing something like this is really not that difficult at all if your roll up the sleeves. I don't blindly listen to anyone.

Death Donkey is one guy I respect immensely though. Smart computer engineer grad. Watched every training video of his. Twice. But he's admitted several times in his videos that he was not as in tuned with the math of situations as others may be. Maybe that has changed, but regardless a post from him should not shut down conversation. But his post didn't really address the entire situation. He said it was highly profitable to pat but that was never in dispute.

So to address your points

1) Yes we are a hot/cold equity favorite against a D1, but we are also a favorite D1 vs D1. Plus our superior position allows us to cause the OOP player to under realize. Tools like freezing and signaling when we can pat tens are advantages. End of the day we are probably a greater advantage D1 vs D1 than Pat vs D1, in terms of what will happen in reality.

2) It seems like there is an attempt to have it both ways. OTR says we have fold equity vs rough eight draws. DD says we have a ton of rough hands and thus snows here, so are we really to believe that rough 8 draws are being folded?

In this respect I tend to side with DD but still think it is more profitable to draw because the chances to win the hand are typically greater D1 vs D1 than patting and in the process we exchange reverse implied odds for implied odds.

ok. i assume from dd's comment about opening 90% of btns, he's opening any deuce. i'm currently only opening 87+ (78%), and i think most are.
but vs a player that opens like dd does would you think not 3betting all or most d2's is still a mistake?

Lol scotchy why don't you just share your damn models if you're so confident. Again, HUHU readless/ no history there is no reason to deviate from standard play.

Cody what were the other 4 games if you don't mind sharing.

LHE/S8/O8/Big0

You seem angry? It’s just a poker thread man. But you are right, I am confident.

But surely if it is so standard as an optimal line maybe you could point me to some modeling results?

Maybe I will run some numbers but first help me reconcile what seems to be a discrepancy. Macau and OTR say we have fold equity against a rough one card draw. DD indicates it’s HU, and we would have lots of rough 1cds and snows. Do we have fold equity or not, important assumption.

If it’s huhu or btn v bb we don’t have fold equity vs an 8 draw but we can value bet the end and depending on our dynamic expect to be called by all kinds of bluff catchers. If we opened from earlier position we should have a fair amount of fold equity and if we don’t our opponent will often be making a TOP mistake vs our range.

Agree 100%

Let’s keep the momentum going imo

You keep saying we're all wrong while you go off on these long winded posts (backed by no hard numbers), modeling and your intelligence while providing no proof that we are in fact wrong. So yeah, I'm little annoyed to keep checking this thread wondering if you ever are going to provide proof or maybe just shut up.

The fact that you're demanding that WE prove you wrong is the most boggling imo. I have no idea what line of work you're in but the standard is if you're the minority with a far out idea then the onus is on you to prove it works, not the other way around. That alone leads me to believe you're trolling and or goading someone to do the work for you (despite claiming how intelligent you are).

And if you're going to respond to this with "I'm right but I don't have to prove anything" then why the hell did you post itt in the first place / what responses were you expecting?!

This is a long rant basically saying nothing exists?

I was going to model this out based upon assumptions fed to me by you guys but not wasting my time now.

Frankly I am perplexed that this seems like some far out idea. If both increasing your win% and exchanging reverse implied odds for implied odds is crazy I’m not sure what to say. That’s why I’m asking for some work.

Trust me, I don’t need anyone to do any work for me. I’ve had numerous experienced pros reach out to me personally to thank me for my analysis and talk of further collaboration.

Now I’m not always right but I never really let someone say “it’s standard” and then that be the end of it. Seems weird as if some discussion is stifled because certain people always want to make sure they agree with each other.

Well, I’m signing off from the forum.

Be good to yourselves and each other!

Casinos are full of people who would rather win than lose, but aren't putting a lot of effort into trying to win versus playing hands and having a good time. I agree there are more accurate ways to phrase it but we all get the point.

Yes, but some people's thinking is that it's more fun to play hands than not play hands, etc.

Agreed almost all 2+2 posts would benefit from this. I'd rather have one HH with what you said than 20 with just the action and all one-sentence replies.


That said 1 seems like an obvious pat and 2 I don't know because I don't play any HU 2-7. Some good arguments for patting ITT but you're a favorite to improve or retain a 9 and the IO would be nice if it's close.

I'm lost here. This hand started heads up right? Literally I see why you say it's not that smooth but in context it seems like it would be "smooth enough" in a situation where a lone opponent is probably can't afford to be picky about his own draws' smoothness. Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding HU27?

I was not aware that hand 2 was huhu


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I guess I'll just have to assume you've never played HUHU 2-7 (besides maybe in your head/lab lol) if you don't want to pat this. Of course there are situations where deviating from the standard is ok but this certainly isn't the situation (unless OP forgot to mention something about villain).