Hand vs Shaun Deeb late on day 2. We've played together for the whole day, and he has seen me go for thin bets/raises, much more than the avg player at our table.

He opens BTN, and due to me being fairly short stacked (cant remember exactly how many bb), I just flat 753 in the BB. I would normally 3b him here though, as he opens 2cd hands frequently and I saw him once open CO and draw 4.

1st draw - 2:3 I improve to 8753. Bet/call
2nd draw - 1:2 I dont improve, no pairs. Bet/call
3rd draw - 1:1, I make 87653. I lead and get raised.

Easy call/fold here? What are the main factors that would sway your decision? I saw no deuces but then I didnt pair any wheel cards either. I normally bet/fold this vs population, but I'm sure he knows I'm betting wide here and therefore folding a lot too.

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Folding is a game theory nightmare so I’d call.

Was this really a good value bet on the river to begin with? Especially when you're short of chips?

It’s a 1-1 spot. This is not close no matter chip stacks, certainly not close in a non-bubble or other extreme icm spot


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You mean this is still a clear value bet even OOP? It just doesn't seem like a great hand to me after a competent player draws one on the last draw. Do many people pay off with bad made hands or pairs here?

i'm not sure about tournament strategy, but in cash game i'm betting a j on river.

Wow, ok. I haven't played this game that often, but I would have considered that a bluff and the original hand a check call bluff catcher. I have only played in smaller games though, maybe people pay off lighter in bigger games and tournaments.

It would be helpful to know payouts and stacks. (Late day 2, I assume we've already mincashed.) IME otherwise good LO8 players are just neurotic about thinking ICM applies way more than it does in a huge tournament like the WSOP. But if there's a pay rise coming up and you're at risk of busting out then missing marginal bets could make sense.

(But this bet isn't really marginal.)

With reads it's bet/call. Your predraw call telegraphs that you're valuing chip preservation. That makes his bluff raise better than it would otherwise be, so I'd assume he's bluffing a bit more than GTO.

The key is that everything depends on the draw. 1:1 on the last draw is the game theorist's delight. Depends on pot size of course but a good player will bluff her worst hands (pairing the top couple of cards), check/fold a bit (maybe low pairs, which can win if it checks through), check/call bad hands with some showdown value (maybe queens through aces, depending on variables), and bet jacks or better. This is because it's a limit game and the other player should call with those queens, probably kings, and maybe aces and small pairs given pot odds. If they're not calling with queens then they should be bluffed to death.

Obviously 1: pat or pat:1 or whatever are completely different ranges being represented.

The DeathDonkey DeucesCracked videos from ages ago are still excellent for learning the basics of this game. Apologies if I'm saying things you know or are in an FAQ. I'm a total novice in this game so I hope others will jump in if my ranges are badly off.

I just have the experience of people routinely making big hands every time I play this game. It seems very easy.

I've probably mentioned this before, but the very first time I played this (in a home game) the BB tried to throw away his hand. We pointed out that it had not been raised and gave it back. He drew 4 and ended up with wheel. That greatly surprised me, but every time I play this game it surprises me less.

Sevens are still rare, 86 is often like TPGK in HE, and after a 1:1 river draw a nine is still toward the top of your range. But everything is situational. If your opponent pats all three draws it often means something like a really rough 8 that can't easily be improved. I once saw an opponent pat a ten three times in a single table sat which is pretty atrocious.

But yeah, just locate those videos. Negreanu's Super/System 2 chapter is pretty good too.

Have to call Shaun freaking Deeb

I understand game theory wise if Im bet/folding here then Deeb can go nuts with bluff raises. However, I'd feel better bet/calling a good T if I caught some low wheel blockers, as I dont think he is value raising a 9 anyway, but not sure if this thinking is flawed.
Exactly what was going through my mind lol. I called and was good, but this was the 1st successful attempt out of maybe 8 times in the day I had bet/called river in similar situations so it had played on my mind a bit.

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Did he have a slightly worse hand or a bluff?

He said 'pair' and mucked

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I mean it’s only even worth thinking about cuz people played the 1-1 spots so weird in that event, but in gto land you have the easiest bet call ever and Shaun is tough so don’t level yourself.

The fact that you haven’t paired or seen 2s should make you happier to call.


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Why? Doesn't that mean that more low cards are available and villain should have a stronger hand?

Can someone explain the relevance of having seen pairs in our decision to call?

Seems irrelevant due to Bayes Theorem. The presence of more or less low cards will increase the odds of him pairing or making his hand however it doesn’t change his overall ratio. So decision is the same.

More to pair too, but see my post as I think it is irrelevant.

i agree with you about pairs, but the 2's i think could be relevant, no?

Well if we think it’s relevant because of more likely pairing deuces and he would raise even them then seems like we have an easy call regardless

Only thing I can think we can take away from having seen no pairs or no deuces is that the chances of getting raised on river is greater for one reason or another.

Or deuces in opponents hand makes for more value raising hands

i'd also say deuces are the best pairs to use as raise bluffs, being hero is more likely on the side of thinner value. esp if he can make him consider folding an 8

Yeah I can see your point about the deuces

He opened the BTN but you really shouldn't be considering 3b from the BB w 753xx against anybody, so it's good you didn't, esp in a tourney w short stack ITM.

things that hedge it towards b/c:

- he may have seen all the deuces or most 7s or paired other wheel cards and you defended from the BB, which gives him more reason to identify your 1-1 river betting range as filled w rougher hands than most 1-1 value betting ranges (I think that's the theory part, if I understand correctly)

- payouts at this point are not yet 5k iirc and your opponent is more likely to take a higher variance line than most and care less about laddering up. esp in a 1500

congrats on the deep run OP