What do you think about this spot against a random unknown player in that field? Like the bet/fold a bit more?

I'll admit I don't quite understand Bayes Theorem. If villain's raising range consists of decent 8s+ for value and say, 77xxx/88xxx for bluffs, and we've seen multiple extra low cards (not deuces but say 33-55), doesn't that increase the ratio of bluffs in his range with this added information?

Do we flat every 3cd hand here then? I thought it was a 3b because he was opening a lot of 2cd hands from both CO and BTN when I was in the blinds. It felt like I had the worst seat at the table.

And cheers, it was the most fun I've ever had in a tournament. I was gutted that I couldn't quite close it out vs (still tough) opponents who I thought had some leaks.

I do flat every 3cd hand in the big blind vs a btn open. I also flat them huhu but I know there are good players who 3bet especially huhu. Anyway in a tournament, I would almost never 3b any 3cd hand in the big blind regardless of my cash strategy.

I played several really interesting hands deep in this thing. Maybe I’ll post them in the next couple days.

I suppose thats because our equity edge (if any) is negated by being OOP? From that tournament, I know playing OOP in general was one area I realised I needed to work on.

I wish I would've noted hands down on my phone. I remember there being quite a few interesting hands/spots but at the time I thought I could just remember them later on. It would be cool to see some more hands posted from that event though. If we played together I wouldn't be surprised if I was involved in some of them... I definitely made a few questionable plays lol.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

We played together but don’t think there were any interesting ones. Here’s a fun one where I took a weird line because of my stack size. Tournament is 8 handed. We are playing 4 handed. I’m otb with 3.5 bets and open 2348. David Prociak calls big blind 2-1. He chks I hit a king and chk behind. 2-1. I hit a Q he chks I bet he calls 1-1. I make a J and chk behind.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm 100% sure OTR is more knowledgeable about these dynamics than I am but want to point them out for pedagogy because there's so much confusion about ICM in massive MTTs. The only reason passive play makes sense is because they're deep in the money and survival to the next place can mean large pay jumps.

Often players talk about ICM far from the money as an excuse for passive play. They're usually confused; cEV and $EV run fairly close far from the money. Same thing, more often, around the bubble. But for an MTT the size of a WSOP event, the mincashes and immediately above are very gently sloped. (Did you really come to play 1.5 days and profit 0.5 x your buy in?) Doubling your stack should still come pretty close to doubling your $EV.

I wouldn't take 51-49 gambles on the bubble in a WSOP event but I'd take 60-40 and feel pretty good about it.

But in OTR's spot, 8 left, doubling your stack is nowhere near doubling your $EV so caution makes sense. Please everyone correct me if you disagree. An ICM calculator > 50 paid is impractical but I'm pretty sure the theory is solid.

Small range v range edges can be passed in these spots imo but I would valuebet a ten on the end for example. Or if it had gone 3-1 I’d bet unimproved after the first draw. The payouts remain quite flat until the top 3 so perhaps even this amount of caution is unwarranted. However it felt like the correct play at the time and also the best way to wield my stack.

Here’s a really cool snow spot I found right after the bubble. Short stack moves to my table and opens co. I 3b 245 otb he calls. 1-2. I catch 5K. He chk I chk. I catch 45 and he bets and has exactly a bet behind. I call. He pats. I pat. Chk bet fold.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, no doubt about it.... calling off your case chips on a sound crying call in a limit tournament is psychologically
really difficult. Even if I knew it was right there's a good chance I'd talk myself out of it (although I've done it once and lost, nh, gg).

Oh I was just trying to sound like Mr. Fancy pants lol

You and OTR just mentioned pair cards, and that is basically what I meant when I said low cards, 8s and 7s are low cards to me

The fact that you haven't paired just means that your opponent is more likely to hit one of them. So you are more likely to be raised for one reason or another, either as a bluff or value.

But the fact that we have not seen any of them at all is irrelevant to the river calling decision.

But you are exactly right that if we have seen multiple middle cards (3-5s) but no high low cards (7s and 8s)it does give us information that it is more likely to be a raise bluff. But the lack of pairs didn't give us anything at all.

That's quite creative. Would you still snow if you had caught just 1 pair on 2nd like 5A?

Ahh, I get what you mean now, cheers. So would you then say in general that those middle blockers are the most significant for picking off bluff raises? As well as unblocking top pairs and deuces (although I think there's an argument for and against seeing deuces, in this spot where Deeb opens and draws 3, he most likely has a deuce already so catching one isnt going to improve his hand).

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Yeah man, against a good tough player it is a good deciding factor. If you've seen many of the higher cards (7s or 8s) the ratio skews towards more towards value while the middle cards (3-5s, mayb 6) makes the ratio slightly more bluff heavy.

Probably not. It’s tough to say though since the situation was so unique. The combination of his line and the cards I caught made it so overwhelmingly likely that his hand was quite rough and I didn’t think he’d want to call off the rest of his chips with a lot of that range.

I like the line against prociak cuz it generates more FE when you do bet if he's only improved to a weak D1 and saves at least a small bet close to the big money. The snow is something that wouldn't cross my mind if I'm on auto-pilot. I think it would've been more ideal right before the bubble, but there's prob some instinct or observations (like if guy keeps looking up at the payouts sceeen) that make it the right line in that very specific tourney spot. gg