The -ev argument for the lotto is one that I think is flawed.

Mathematically over an infinite sample, the lotto is certainly -ev. This is obvious. Every time you buy a ticket your expected return is less than what you paid for it. However I don't think the lotto is a good example of a viewpoint that like. What I mean is that the loss affects you almost zero* (assuming one ticket per drawing at two times a week, it costs $208 a year) while the win drastically alters your life. Apologies for a poker analogy - they are almost never good - but it's kind of like cEV and $EV don't always see eye to eye. Except instead of chips and prize pool, it's $ev and life ev.

$208 over the course of the year is a minuscule amount of money while hitting even one of the small jackpots nets you everything from paying off your house to college fund taken care of for the kids and retirement funds being set. Which once that's covered allows you not only to do what you want for the rest of your life work wise, it also alleviates stresses most people end up dealing with and allowing you to have more time for friends and family.

I understand the math behind it. I understand the unrealistic odds. I understand that for every $2 I spend I am likely getting back less than $1. I just think the positives outweigh the negatives in my situation and so I buy a ticket each drawing.

Though I also recognize this could just be rationalization for continuing to do something that I know is wrong mathematically. Meh.


* Keep in mind, I'm arguing this from the viewpoint of someone that has chosen to do the lotto as a calculated risk rather than one of consistently feeding excess money into the lotto as it's the only "realistic" method to escape from poverty. The lotto as a whole is a godawful system preying on people that can't afford the losses by promising them a chance to "make it". If the lotto shut down tomorrow I think it'd be a net positive for society. But for the purposes of this conservation I'm approaching it as a middle class person trying to determine if the lotto is worth is.

Seems like winning the lotto probably damages almost every relationship you have, family or otherwise.

But I'm pretty cynical, so I could be wrong about that.

Man, I would just take this as rubbing it in if I was a Rams fan.

No you're not wrong on that, at least with the cases that I've seen. Of course idk if we only ever hear about the ones that work out like that etc.


Definitely rubbing it in.

Speaking of nfl, I'd like it if they redid divisions now since they got someone moving:


AFC:

east
Pats
Jets
Bills
Ravens

South
Texans
Jags
Dolphins
Titans

North
Colts
Steelers
Browns
Bengals

West
Chargers
Raiders
Broncos
Chiefs



NFC: no changes




seems like a miami/indy/baltimore swap would make so much more sense. would leave kc/dal as the only ones that dont really make sense based on name but someone has to with the locations

Boy you sure gave your team a hell of a division to compete against.

luck o the draw my good man!

until mariota and bortles become the new elite qbs

The non anonymous laws are complete bull****. Life would be hell to win a ton of money very publicly, everyone would want a piece and when you said no theyd kindly point out you did jack **** to earn it anyways

Yeah I think so too.

And yet of course I'm snap-calling if you offer me a guaranteed winning ticket.

Itd certainly be an interesting experience to say the least. I say Id live a similar life, just with more irresponsible spending, but Im sure faced with that kind of money Id go full ******

I certainly don't know the problems of winning many millions of dollars instantly, but I'd love to discover what those problems are.

The Mavs are definitely not covering the over. I took +10.5, they're down 24. At least Denver's keeping it close with Golden State. Took Denver at +10.5 as well.

This.

Idk about you guys but I'm a huge nit because I played fr cash professionally for years. Needless to say, I'm still a huge nit. I talked with my wife about what I'd do with $1B. I don't think I could spend more than $20M of it in my lifetime. Buy a house in Tucson (because Tucson is ****ing awesome and cheap). A couple vacations, set my kid up for life, and I have no idea wtf I'd do with the rest. It's not even enough to set-up a competitor to PokerStars

Well my Powerball dreams have been dashed again. I assume it will be about another decade before I get my next lottery ticket.

What if no one connected on the jackpot tonight?

EDIT: Nevermind. Somebody in California apparently shipped it.

Pretty crazy only one winner. I think when it was 800 mill there were 3 winners?

Ugh, I know I shouldnt, but I still have like a really big comedown from this. I shouldnt be sad. Why am I sad?

I don't think you're wrong at all.

I bought a ticket, and I would be terrified if I had won tonight.

Since the real EV of the lotto is in the fun in discussing a win, my wife and I agreed there's a non-zero chance that we'd outright give the ticket to a charity we really like (my favorite is called Food for the Poor which feeds and builds homes for destitute families in Latin America). Basically we have a comfortable middle-class existence and I wouldn't want to fall into the trap of trying to pursue happiness through "stuff." From that point forward, I don't know that I'd want managing a massive fortune to be my chief worry for the remainder of my life. I would dread the long line of "friends" with their hands out. Counterintuitive, I know, and it's certainly a lot easier to type on a message board than to do if actually faced with that choice. Still, passing it up is something I think I'd legitimately consider.

3 winners this time too.

I had a vivid dream last night that I went on an absurd $750,000 heater at the blackjack table. I guess my subconscious really took that Powerball ticket purchase seriously.

Excellent news. I wonder lifetime how much Ive spent on the lottery. I dont buy any crazy amount but sometimes drop 10 bucks here and there. Never even won a dollar back

Roulette and Powerball/MegaMillions the only gambling things I'm down lifetime at. Need to rectify that this year

I'm actually up quite considerably in roulette which us weird

I was up lifetime at both McDonalds contests* and slot machines before the age of 12, so have that streak to continue for my life, which is nice.

when i was about 7 my family went on vacation and made a stop in vegas to visit a friend of my dads. while we were eating at one of the casino restaurants i asked what the numbers on the wall meant and my dads friend explained keno to me. to show me how it worked he let me pick numbers and bought a ticket. we hit a few hundred bucks on the first game. I said something like "oh this is easy why don't people just do this for work".

years later when my dad told him i was playing poker he apologized profusely for turning me into a gambler, which we all got a kick out of.

I had a similar thought in kindergarten when somebody's dad came in and did a bunch of magic tricks. He had some cheap plastic thing that turned a penny into a quarter. All I could think was "How can I get one of those? I'd have SO MUCH MONEY."