Well if WWE is putting DB in the main event they better do it to open the show in Chicago else it could turn ugly quick

Just booked a bet giving someone 9/1 that Punk shows up at RAW on Monday. Easiest money I've ever made. If probably lay twice as much here as there is literally no way possible this happens. Anyone wanna find a mutual escrow and dance?

I dunno about "literally no way possible," but you definitely made a hugely +EV bet.

I agree that you're making easy money but saying "literally no way" is always pretty dumb. I mean, last time Punk came back after leaving with the title all the reports were that he was supposed to be away a lot longer, but his return was brought forward at around 24hrs' notice, and he got a lot more out of the deal as a result.

I don't think it's out of the question that Punk would call up Vince tomorrow and be like "I'll work through to WM31 if you guarantee me another title run and the WM main event". As a negotiation tactic, the night before Raw in his hometown - a Raw where the crowd is threatening all kinds of misbehaviour - would be the best time to do that.

It's definitely longer than 9/1. It's probably more like 49/1 or even 99/1. But "literally no way possible" is a stretch. Heck, we can't even be 100% sure it's not a work - nothing's ever certain.

http://whatculture.com/wwe/cm-punk-1...chicago.php/13

Hyperbole ITT

Punk's not coming back and DB isn't winning the title at WM, guys. The sooner you learn to accept it, the easier it will be.

it's still not real to me, dammit

I can only assume that the line you're taking here is a cowardly emotional hedge.

I don't really know or care about Punk at this point, but Bryan winning the title at Mania is pretty obviously at least possible. Taking the extreme stance that it's impossible isn't enlightened; hope that helps.

I'm in the camp of 90%+ work with Punk, but I'm not sure they will bring him back before mania anyway. I actually think 50-1 might be a +ev spot.

And yeah I'll put a small amount of money where my mouth is on that if anyone wants to lay that. Using escrow and pokerstars only though.

Not emotional hedge, just recognition of fact. I thought there was a chance until the Royal Rumble. Vince isn't "working" his investors when he said SummerSlam was "a swing and a miss". Batistia got a huge ratings pop on RAW on his initial appearance.

There may have been a ratings pop on his initial appearance, but creative plans obviously changed since then anyway. It's plain as day that there was no plan to turn him heel before Mania, especially considering ADR's pre-match attack on him at Elimination Chamber and everything, but they eventually succumbed to what the crowd was demanding there because they weren't just going to go ahead with the planned main event as it was.

Now whether or not they'll add Bryan, I don't know, but the fact that they've very obviously already bent to the reaction of the crowd on part of the issue clearly leaves it in play as a possibility until we see more evidence either way.

They are placating the Universe on small stuff like that since they know they aren't delivering the big title shot the Universe wants. WWE isn't stupid, they know that DB is super over with fans but he doesn't increase ratings or draw PPV money. They will keep him in big storylines with lots of TV time but no title for the near future.

fwiw, I also don't understand how so many people have viewed the past ~6 months and come to the conclusion that Daniel Bryan is winning the title at Mania without it being in large part to just wanting it to be the case. It seems like every time someone produces an opinion ending with "Bryan wins at mania", its rationale involves beliefs that the powers that be couldn't possibly ignore the crowd being so pro-Bryan nor be willing to stick with their proposed main event of Orton vs Batista due to fear of crowd response.

It's not as if the crowd has just suddenly become massively pro-Bryan. It's been the case for the previous 6 months as well. What they've done with that is:

- Use Bryan's popularity to springboard a HHH/Orton heel turn at Mania (despite HHH being confused since then on whether he's supposed to be a heel or not)

- Have a series of PPV main events where they don't give an ending (and then blame the poor buyrates on Bryan if those reports are to be believed).

- Rush Cena back from injury and immediately put him back in the main title picture (which leads me to believe the reports are at least somewhat accurate)

- Use Bryan's popularity to establish Bray Wyatt as a credible heel to face Cena (going over Bryan entirely clean with no rematch)

- Keep Daniel Bryan out of the Royal Rumble in an effort to not have the crowd boo when he's eliminated.

- Have Daniel Bryan challenge HHH to a match at mania




So when I look at all that and then see people talking about pulling double duty at WM and winning the title, I just kind of shake my head. Of course he should be in the title match. But I just don't see it happening based on anything they've done.

Hate the ratings pop for Batista logic, as it came as the opening segment the week after Daniel Bryan's face turn. I know I turned it on to see what was gonna happen there.

Well PPV money is now completely reshaped by the WWE Network, so I don't think that buyrates will be measured so traditionally now. As ratings go, my guess is that he's getting put on TV more than Batista is. If the implication is that Batista makes for better ratings, why (if I'm correct that D-Bry is on more) are they doing that?

Gonna be really interesting to see how this works out over the first handful of ppvs with only a percentage of the market being eligible for the network.

Don't get me wrong, I don't any particularly strong resolve that it's what WILL happen; I just think it's silly to assert that it's stone cold fact that it isn't when we haven't seen very much of the final build to the show yet.

It would be one of the logical conclusions to "Daniel Bryan gets held down by the Authority" storyline, and as detailed above it's clear already that they've bent creatively in reaction to the crowds as is. What you say about Bryan being hugely over in a positive way for much longer than two months is obviously true, but every live crowd crapping on the product on a weekly basis is a pretty new phenomenon.

Now FWIW, in counterpoint to the possibility that it may happen: if it is an angle then I will personally go to the home of each person who thinks it was an angle since before the Rumble and beat them over the head with a wrench because that's so obviously wrong that they need some sense beaten into them. And that means that they really were just going to hope that Batista's win would go over great with everyone, and that they were going to go ahead with the douchebag triumphantly returning and going over his old Evolution buddy. But we are seeing signs of storyline reaction to the crowd, and I'm not at all confident we're done with that yet.

I don't know how much of the market share is American really. They were never counting on buys from the UK because as I understand it they get those there via Sky Sports anyway. Is Canada that big of a market? Or other European countries, or Australia? I have to think, based purely on how much pro-US patriotic propaganda they push if nothing else, that America is a pretty dominant percentage of the demo.

I'm willing to believe that I'm underestimating just how much the negative reactions have caused them to rework things. If it indeed ends up being the case, then after our wrench bashing spree we need to go to the house of everyone that was in attendance for the Royal Rumble and give them a hug.

Oh I'm sure it's a dominant percentage, I was more saying it'll be interesting to see how their revenue changes over the next few pay per views. Between needing about 4 people that normally don't buy the PPV to get the network in order to make up for each person that normally buys the PPV that gets the network, an easier to access method of watching things like Raw that could affect advertisements (I think I saw they were uploading the full episodes after they air?), and factoring in the overhead of having the network running, it should be interesting to see how it all shakes out once it's gotten rolling.

Admittedly I don't really have the first clue how WWE's financials shake out as far as what their biggest sources of revenue are (advertising, merchandise, PPV buys, gate). I also am having a hell of a time finding these ratings breakdowns that others seem to be able to find. I can imagine that Batista returning at the start of a show may have done a nice number, but obviously more relevant is what has happened since.

EDIT: I can see that the first hour of Raw this week did the biggest numbers, but without quarter-hour breakdowns that's worthless. I would have to assume that a Hogan return that was pre-announced would have the best numbers.

What?

Happy to talk odds for Bryan leaving mania as WWE champion too btw... Hell if it's no chance I'll bet on it at 50-1 no problems

Again, will require escrow and pokerstars only though.

I do wonder what people think Hogan will do if he doesn't get to put Bryan in the championship match... like why is he hosting? You think Hulk is just gonna come out and announce matches and not get in to the action at all?

There are plenty of feuds for Hogan to interject himself in one way or another. Thing is that we're clearly getting Bryan vs. HHH, so Bryan isn't just getting placed in the main event without winning the shot. The scenario with him pulling double duty is the only chance that he actually has to leave as champ.