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Old 01-05-2013, 08:27 PM   #1
We Major
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Liquidity trends?

Took a quick look at DraftDay and doesn't seem to be a whole lot of liquidity in the market. Highest stake is 109 and not a whole lot of players.

How is liquidity trending on daily fantasy sites for NBA? For players who play regularly, are you seeing more or less players than 3, 6 and 12 months ago?

With the uncertainty surrounding offshore books we thought it'd be a good opportunity to use our vast amount of data and modeling experience to try to beat daily fantasy sports - but there doesn't seem to be enough liquidity to make it worthwhile.
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Old 01-05-2013, 09:54 PM   #2
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Re: Liquidity trends?

There are other sites with a lot more high stakes action than DD. You can easily find dozens of $400-$535 NBA match-ups every day if you know where to look.
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Old 01-06-2013, 04:56 PM   #3
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Re: Liquidity trends?

There's definitely bigger sites than DraftDay but I don't know if the market is big enough yet to support something like you describe if it involves a significant investment. Most sites are 10% rake and to get big volume you are going to have to take on some of the other top regs eventually. You could perhaps try building a quick and dirty model and see how you do against other regs at low stakes. That might give you a feel for whether its beatable for you or not once you pull out all the stops.
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Old 01-07-2013, 09:30 AM   #4
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Re: Liquidity trends?

The site with the largest high stakes action has only 5% rake at $420 buy-in. I'm certain you could get at least 10 of those each NBA night. Whether it is beatable depends on how good you are versus the regs you would play at that level.

But 5% rake is definitely beatable.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:27 PM   #5
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Re: Liquidity trends?

Quote:
Originally Posted by We Major View Post
Took a quick look at DraftDay and doesn't seem to be a whole lot of liquidity in the market. Highest stake is 109 and not a whole lot of players.

How is liquidity trending on daily fantasy sites for NBA? For players who play regularly, are you seeing more or less players than 3, 6 and 12 months ago?

With the uncertainty surrounding offshore books we thought it'd be a good opportunity to use our vast amount of data and modeling experience to try to beat daily fantasy sports - but there doesn't seem to be enough liquidity to make it worthwhile.
I'm biased as the owner of the site, but I think it's a good idea. You aren't going to sniff what you can make as a top sports bettor, but no one really knows what's going to happen in the future in this market. It's a lot bigger than it was 1 year ago, and way bigger than it was 2 years ago.

I have a friend who wasn't playing DFS 1.5 years ago. He moved out of the country to play poker. Since then he has been grinding DFS and is making enough money to where he can support himself just doing DFS (I would guess mid 5 figures+) a year.

Keep in mind you don't just need to play on one site. If you develop a good methodology to winning on DraftDay then you should be able to beat other sites (you are really only limited by your ability to manage lineups near game-time. That is the reason why we have made it simple to manage lots of lineups and make changes quickly across teams).
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:35 PM   #6
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Re: Liquidity trends?

Oh, one other thing. We're coming out with a Rewards program at DraftDay. If you're playing big action (say $100+ a day), it won't be hard for you to earn 20% reduction in site fees (mostly in the form of rakeback). The top guys can earn up to 40% (you'd need to put into action $~1k day). This will be live in the next few weeks.
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:54 PM   #7
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Re: Liquidity trends?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Plastic View Post
Oh, one other thing. We're coming out with a Rewards program at DraftDay. If you're playing big action (say $100+ a day), it won't be hard for you to earn 20% reduction in site fees (mostly in the form of rakeback). The top guys can earn up to 40% (you'd need to put into action $~1k day). This will be live in the next few weeks.
Please more details, I can do this provided there is enough NHL action to match up to my $1k.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:04 PM   #8
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Re: Liquidity trends?

I'll link it here when it's posted -- I kind of don't think there will be enough action for you at NHL to get $1k a day but I'm not sure. You could definitely get $1k/day in action if you play more than one sport (that's true year round).

(monthly)
$1,000 in buyins - 20% rakeback on anything above it
$2,500 in buyins - 25% rakeback on anything above it
$25,000 - 40% rakeback on anything above it

Once you hit a tier (say $2,500) one month, you receive that 25% rakeback for the entire next month. So essentially, as long as you are clear a given tier, you can sustain that rewards level indefinitely.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:11 PM   #9
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Re: Liquidity trends?

point being, your rake is going to be around 5% or less if you are playing a ton, it's going to be 5-7% if you are playing a good amount. IMO (it's an educated but biased one), those are very beatable numbers if you're good.
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Old 01-07-2013, 10:45 PM   #10
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Re: Liquidity trends?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Plastic View Post
I'll link it here when it's posted -- I kind of don't think there will be enough action for you at NHL to get $1k a day but I'm not sure. You could definitely get $1k/day in action if you play more than one sport (that's true year round).

(monthly)
$1,000 in buyins - 20% rakeback on anything above it
$2,500 in buyins - 25% rakeback on anything above it
$25,000 - 40% rakeback on anything above it

Once you hit a tier (say $2,500) one month, you receive that 25% rakeback for the entire next month. So essentially, as long as you are clear a given tier, you can sustain that rewards level indefinitely.
I know you've been rolling with month-to-month promos and just wanted to say that I am very much looking forward to a more permanent rewards program like this.
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Old 01-17-2013, 07:35 PM   #11
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Re: Liquidity trends?

Quote:
Originally Posted by We Major View Post
Took a quick look at DraftDay and doesn't seem to be a whole lot of liquidity in the market. Highest stake is 109 and not a whole lot of players.

How is liquidity trending on daily fantasy sites for NBA? For players who play regularly, are you seeing more or less players than 3, 6 and 12 months ago?

With the uncertainty surrounding offshore books we thought it'd be a good opportunity to use our vast amount of data and modeling experience to try to beat daily fantasy sports - but there doesn't seem to be enough liquidity to make it worthwhile.
If I where trying to determine how much I could get in play, I would look across the sites at there leader boards. On just one other site Condia has over 300K in winnings for Jan. He has 400K winnings on that site in Dec. I know he is a large vol NFL guy, But on that site he is playing a lot of NBA too I believe.

He is on just about every site too. I don't know how much your looking to get in play a night but I think you can get a lot more in play then you think.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:06 PM   #12
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Re: Liquidity trends?

i've been pretty much playing only Draft Day's Guaranteed 50/50s and i get over 400 in play a day.
I can play 600 if i want just by picking up a couple other 50/50s
I'm fairly sure i could get 1k in action a day just on draft day nba if i wanted.
I would think it wouldn't be too tough to get 5k in action everyday on nba if you spread across 3-4 sites.
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Old 01-18-2013, 01:33 PM   #13
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Re: Liquidity trends?

Quote:
Originally Posted by phillydilly View Post
i've been pretty much playing only Draft Day's Guaranteed 50/50s and i get over 400 in play a day.
I can play 600 if i want just by picking up a couple other 50/50s
I'm fairly sure i could get 1k in action a day just on draft day nba if i wanted.
I would think it wouldn't be too tough to get 5k in action everyday on nba if you spread across 3-4 sites.
you could definitely get $1k/day in action on DraftDay if you wanted to. you'd have to play some tough players in high variance games, but like you said, $400 is no problem just sticking to bigger field games, 50/50's, etc.

thanks for playing on the site. we appreciate your business.
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Old 01-23-2013, 11:28 AM   #14
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Re: Liquidity trends?

seems like the amount of NBA action has increased on Draft Day the last couple days.
There have been multiple $530 buyin games going the last few days, heads up and 4 man double ups.
Right now, there are 4 man double ups with 3/4 players at every level from $11 to $530, and we are still 8+ hours from tip off.

That being said, I'd be careful about what I join. I've played a little more in the h2h games over the last week, and the strength of competition has massive swings.
Even at the $100+ buyin level, all the way up to $530, there are players that I consider soft, and then there are also some I consider top NBA players on the site.
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Old 01-23-2013, 12:45 PM   #15
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Re: Liquidity trends?

The rakeback incentive at DD seem to have worked the level of action has increased. It's relatively easy to find a game but it's usually against the same handful of opponents so it's not really diversified action. They also happen to be some of the tougher players on the site so good luck.
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