Quote:
Originally Posted by bolt2112
99.9 percentile? You're talking about 1 in 1000 2-5 pros. How many 2-5 pros do you think there are in South Florida? I doubt there are 1000 pros across all games.
Figure a single 2-5 table can support 4 or 5 professional players. Magic City might have 3 games going at most times (which is a generous estimate). Gulfstream has 2 games going. Mardi Gras has 1 game. The Isle has 3 games. The Kennel Club has 3 games. Hialeah, Miccosukee, Dania, and King's Court have zero games.
The Hard Rock has maybe 6 games. Coconut Creek has 2. Let's count the two Seminole Properties as 10 tables instead of 8 since they're open 24 hours, which is overly generous.
So that's 22 tables of 2-5 to choose from in South Florida on average. Those 22 tables can support between 100 and 150 professionals, which will allow the pros to spread out and play 30-40 hours/week and only have 2 or 3 pros sitting together at the same table at the same time.
I'd estimate that 10-15 of those guys are making 100K per year. I can probably name 3 or 4 of them off the top of my head.
Lets face it, we are just playing a guessing game here because nobody really knows what anyone else makes. However, if you play a lot you can get some sort of idea about the top 5-8 players in the room.
I think your numbers are too high. You are estimating:
5-7 pros per available table. 2-3 pros per table playing at same time.
10% of 2/5 pros make $100K
I play 95% of my hours at the Isle so clearly I know it like that back of my hand. Ive played at Kennel Club, The Creek, HR, Gulfstream and Hialeah.
As an experiment Im going to count the total number of 2/5 tables at 2PM and 9PM and Ill come up with an average over the next 7 days. For now, I think your estimate of 22 tables is somewhere near correct although places like the Creek that you are giving 2 tables have none at least half the time.
You're giving the Isle 3 out of the 22 tables. That's fair.
So we are saying the Isle has 1/7th of all tables. I would be shocked if there was more than two 2/5 players at the Isle who make $100K. Id actually fall out of my chair if there were more than 2. You have to play at least 1500-1600 hours. I think I know every single player who plays that much.
I think there are only 4 regs at the Isle who are capable of making $100K.
1) Only plays at the Isle maybe 1-2 days a week so hes not really an Isle reg. He plays more at HR so I have no idea if he plays enough total hours to make $100K, but when hes in the Isle, IMO, hes the best player in the room.
2 and 3) Two of them play only evenings. I dont know them well enough to know if they have jobs or not but my guess is they do which is why they play only evenings so they dont play 1500+ hrs of poker.
4) Good ol' MikeStarr. I know what I make.
If someone came up to me and showed me their poker app and showed me a $100K year and it wasnt one of these 4 guys, I might pass out. I honestly dont think there is anyone else good enough and plays enough to do it.
So Im saying there is 1 maybe 2 Isle players who make $100K. Since we gave the Isle 1/7th of all tables maybe we can extrapolate that may be 7-14 total 2/5 players in S. Florida who make $100K?
I still say its about 5 or less though because people are lazy and poker pros are even lazier and some of them will play less hours when they are crushing it.