stud hi: 5th street 2pair vs K77
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,860
i have 988ss in bring in. K door opens on me, i raise, he raises back, i call.
3rd: K7 vs my 9886ss, he bets, i call
5th: K77 vs my 98869ss, he bets
easy fold, right? i don't play a lot of stud hi. i'd fold here without much thought in the past but i'd like to make sure, and if this is a fold, what situations might i actually peel? would i peel if the 6 were an ace and i had 3 spades?
fwiw players i play with tend to be transparent with their 3-bets pre. i.e. i pretty much expect a big pair from him here and never a draw of any sort.
thanks
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,543
Why did you two bet third? What position did he raise from?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,860
oh forgot to mention. it was HU at the time.
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 19
Based on your read this is a fold. 7.25/3 to call down a river bet so you need 30% to breakeven.
Against a range of 2 pair with 99+ in the hole you have just 20% equity.
But, once you expand the range to something more reasonable you should plan on calling down unimproved vs. a board that doesn't show obvious improvement.
Against a starting range of KKK, KOK, any PP, and a 3 flush you should have about 45% equity. Additionally your IO is greater than your ROI with respect to river raises.
Does he re-raising 3rd with the above range 100% of the time. Probably not based on general tendencies and based on your read he doesn't. Just make sure you aren't always folding here to all opponents.
Best.
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,860
thanks. pretty much the explanation i was expecting, but hoping to confirm.
i think if this were a very aggro player with spewy/tricky tendencies i'd just go into calldown mode, which seems to be the right play.