Dead cards: KJT74

Villain: (**)AT
Hero: 872J

On 4th street Villain bets $2. Pot is now $10.80. Hero has equity about 25% even against a pair of Aces in Villain's hand, though Villain seems not stealing. Shall Hero peel?

Yes. Only one heart is dead, your pairs are reasonably live, and a ten is dead. In general, you need a good reason not to peel a 3-flush on 4 and you don't have one here.

I feel like villains tendencies/previous action would dictate whether I'd peel here or not.

Is that wrong, is this always a peel?

Unless I'm missing something...I wouldn't.
It is heads up, and the pot isn't really that big. Assuming Villain has Aces, hero can forget about drawing out two pairs or trips (especially with a 7 and J dead) and really needs to hit a straight (unlikely with the two tens dead), or, of course, the flush. Two of the next 3 cards must be hearts, and assuming Villain has Aces, there are probably more like 2 hearts dead. Another time.

Also, what are the limits? Are the (7,8) the hole cards?

I know that that is pretty much a direct quote from Seven Card Stud for Advanced Players, but it also states, "Of course, if you think you are against a pair of aces, you should fold." If there is a serious thought that the hero is up against aces, heads up, no reasonable redraw for straight, two pair, trips, etc. and the pot isn't a monster...

The crux of the issue is that the Villain has aces. If they suspect they don't, probably throw the $2 in.

Note: Despite what I've been saying, I would almost always chase the flush, lose a fortune in the long run, and tilt everyone that I suck out on. Stud is such an awesome game to do that with

If Villain can really have any two here (was he last to act?), then it's close. I see players lose a lot of money in this spot against reasonable opponents.

Note, you'd be better off if you caught a 9, or 6, and not the J, probably worth 5% cold equity with those two cards.

I LOL'd, haha. Good responses, thanks for posting.

You have breakeven hot-and-cold equity with almost any pretty-live three-flush vs an unpaired board that has a reasonably wide opening range, which is where the rule of thumb that you should rarely fold comes from. A better three-flush (more connected with live straight cards, overcards or a small pair) would be a solid hand to continue with. This hand is none of that, it's just fairly dead garfunkle that happens to have three of a suit, and you don't think villain is stealing.

You could certainly peel if the game is full and the ante is big, but in a small pot this exact hand isn't making you money on its own. If you feel like you could do something later in the hand to win it regardless of your board, or if your opponent will overly credit you with any improvement, then you can call to set up a play with a weak redraw as backup, but mechanically throwing in a call because you see three of a suit is just treading water. If you don't play boards or hand-read as well as your opponents this is also a spot where you can easily get outplayed when you improve to a weak hand with some value.

Against a strong opening range (any pair, 3-flush, any Ace, Broadway cards) the dead, unconnected nature of your hand really hurts:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: k j t 7 4

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
22+, *d*d, jt+, A* : Ad Tc	71.46%	428,758	23
8h 7h 2h jc	28.54%	171,219	23

You're in decent shape if villain's range is ATC, and in higher-ante games that will be true:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: k j t 7 4

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
**	Ad Tc	59.94%	359,626
8h 7h 2h jc	40.06%	240,329	45

TL/DR: Call if you play well enough to own souls later, if not folding costs you nothing with this exact hand.

Lol my advice is my own I have no idea whether or not I'm coming close to quoting a book. The main thing is that overfolding 4th is really bad. Lean towards calling when you're not sure. Not only will you tend to be doing the right thing, but you'll get practice in playing marginal hands/spots

Well kudos for independently deriving a concept from a great book.

I agree that the "overfolding 4th is really bad," especially in fixed limit games (opposed to spread limit) because you can see a cheap card before the bets double. Of course, as I said before, I like to chase a little and pay/get paid off. So many times you end catching something you weren't looking for and having it hold up against broken draws/unimproved pairs.

I played 5 hours yesterday for +$353 at 20-40, but with the exception of quads once and two full houses (neither of which paid all that much), nearly all of my wins were one or two pair that were caught in the late streets. So yea, taking one or two off and playing marginal hands can make a few bucks sometimes. But drawing to a flush against made aces is a good way to hit the buffet before the dinner rush.

The guy not being on a steal is not the same as automatically having aces. Small-mid wired pair, broadway cards, and 3-flushes are not "steals"; they're hands anybody would raise with

Lol JD, I think usually the quickest way to buffet line is to make aces up in 4 and have your opponents runs you down with a 3 flush and a draw at a backdoor gut shot straight on 4th

How can you assume aces? That's one of the hands he could have, like RolldUp said, but without the 3rd street info, I don't see how you can be so sure the guy wasn't on a steal unless you know he was the Rock of Gibraltar

Fold. If I had higher hearts I might come. But this hand doesn't play well against A T showing.

I've got this as a call but it is quite close.

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Hey Howling I remember playing Stud on Stars with you when everyone else was from Changle China and colluding against. But will still always won!

Why higher hearts help here? Or do you mean when some cards of our hand are higher than his board cards?

If the A is in steal position, which OP says is not the case, I might continue if I had (Kh Qh) in the hole, as then I could overcome most pocket pairs OP might have, as well as the 10 if he had something like (T K) A T.

But since OP thinks villains range is weighted towards aces, we are going to have a hard time winning this pot if we need to overcome aces or better.

Our highest card is up, and if we make open Jacks without the Jh, now what? Enemy can fold steals and continue with a hand that crushes us.

If we hit a deuce we are in the ugly spot of trying to rep trips. How many bets are we putting in then in a small stakes game?

The hand has reverse implied odds for many of the back door wins we might connect with. It leaves us in a guessing game the whole hand unless we pick off two more hearts.

Lots of Stealing in STUD.
When J comes on 4th and you have the 2H showing - Villain rightly thinks the Jack has missed you - and might be just looking to pick up Pot.

Your three to a flush is well disguised.
I would take lead back by re-raising 4th street.
If Brick comes on 5th For Villain then Lead out.

Very often your re-raise on 4th will buy an extra card..If you both Brick (which is most of the time) then it might just go check-check on 5th Street. Since V will likely want to avoid the check raise again.
You get another chance on 6th street to check or continue with lead.

This check/Re-raise with big draws on 4th (to get an extra card) often works.
If you get three bet then opponent has the goods and you can release the hand - or continue with your draw knowing that V. has a made hand and not a bluff.

Other than on the last betting round, if a hand has so little equity and playability that you are thinking about folding it, you can be sure that that of your 3 options, raising is the lowest EV play.

Electrical's analysis was great.

So much info missing from the OP such as where the ace raised from and the ante structure that makes analyzing this hand too deeply not a great use of time

That said I’m never raising here, often folding

Electrical nailed it. Your hand is trash release it unless opponent is very poor it the rent is due.

Peace