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Stud facing scary board Stud facing scary board

04-03-2011 , 01:52 AM
A lot of dead hearts out there but he is obviously trying to rep the flush with his scary board.
What would you do on 6th and 7th here? Does a bet on 7th in position mean he has the flush?

Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Stud $0.10 Ante - 8 players - View hand 1261247
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

3rd Street: (0.8 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 9 ____Seat 1 folds
Seat 2: xx xx 9 ____Seat 2 folds
Seat 3: xx xx 6 ____Seat 3 calls
Seat 4: xx xx T ____Seat 4 folds
Seat 5: xx xx 7 ____Seat 5 calls
Hero: A Q 3 ___Hero brings in for $0.50
Seat 7: xx xx J ____Seat 7 folds
Seat 8: xx xx J ____Seat 8 calls

4th Street: (2.8 SB) (4 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 6 3 ____Seat 3 calls
Seat 5: xx xx 7 4 ____Seat 5 calls
Hero: A Q 3 Q ___Hero bets
Seat 8: xx xx J 4 ____Seat 8 folds

5th Street: (2.9 BB) (3 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 6 3 9 ____Seat 3 calls
Seat 5: xx xx 7 4 8 ____Seat 5 calls
Hero: A Q 3 Q T ___Hero bets

6th Street: (5.9 BB) (3 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 6 3 9 K ____Seat 3 checks____Seat 3 folds
Seat 5: xx xx 7 4 8 2 ____Seat 5 bets
Hero: A Q 3 Q T 3 ___Hero checks___Hero calls

7th Street: (7.9 BB) (2 players)
Seat 5: xx xx 7 4 8 2 xx____Seat 5 bets
Hero: A Q 3 Q T 3 4 ___Hero checks___Hero calls

Against random hole cards it looks like I am a favourite...

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: T693KJJ499
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
**7h4h8h2h39.07% 234,4130
AcQc3cQhTh3h60.93% 365,5870
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-08-2011 , 06:05 PM
I check/fold on the 5th street and am happy about it.

He never has a truly random hand, so your equity is def worse. But as played, it can be a crying call.
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-09-2011 , 01:43 AM
At no point does folding enter my mind. Well played imo.
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-09-2011 , 04:02 AM
Bad Seed makes a good point that his hand isn’t random. Still, I’d play it as you did.

That’s my 2p2 cents. I hope there’s more discussion on this hand.
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-09-2011 , 10:26 AM
His hand is not truly random no
But the suits of his hole cards are close to random here I think which is the main concern
The way it was played on 3rd and 4th makes it hard to narrow his range down...
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-09-2011 , 06:00 PM
generally, based on pure probability you are always a favourite to still be good on 6th with 2 pair vs 4 of the same suit.

you're getting 7 to 1 ish so put the money in and let the 60/40 ish take care of the rest in the long run.
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-11-2011 , 02:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lemonseeds
His hand is not truly random no

But the suits of his hole cards are close to random here I think which is the main concern

The way it was played on 3rd and 4th makes it hard to narrow his range down...
That’s a good point. Considering that, I’d guess that your simulation shows that you’d be a favorite, but less than a 2:1 favorite.
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-11-2011 , 12:49 PM
Just about any decent book on stud always mentions that "tough" players won't fold just because they are looking at a 4 flush board. Don't let the glare of all those hearts weaken you. You'd bet a 4 flush board if you were him here too, no matter what your down cards. You're probably ahead on 6th but if not you are not drawing dead. On 7th it is just the price.
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-12-2011 , 02:42 PM
He's betting his entire range on 6th street. So, heck, let's construct a 6th street ranges and take a look. Here's your basic "any 7, any pair less than Jacks, and three flush, any three straight":

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: T693KJJ499
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
*7, *h*h, 22-TT, 56,68,89|7h4h8h2h45.89% 275,3690
AcQc3cQhTh3h54.11% 324,6310

If he's folding unimproved pocket pairs that don't have a heart, it barely changes:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: T693KJJ499
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
*7, *h*h, 22,88,44,3h3,55,66,9h9,ThT, 56,68,89|7h4h8h2h46.16% 276,9810
AcQc3cQhTh3h53.84% 323,0190

Intuitively, I play it the same way as you. The above numbers don't change that for me.

sarah
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-12-2011 , 07:46 PM
Nine replies, and no one mentions that 7s are totally live to start, and remain unsighted to the end.

He has (7x)7 far more often than Sarah's ranges suggest.
Stud facing scary board Quote
04-12-2011 , 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SofaKingLucky
Nine replies, and no one mentions that 7s are totally live to start, and remain unsighted to the end.

He has (7x)7 far more often than Sarah's ranges suggest.
The liveness of his hand is factored into the simulation - it doesn't treat every "part" of the supplied range the as if they're the same size.
Stud facing scary board Quote

      
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