stud 8 - not got much of a hand but should i be folding anywhere? - Page 2 - Stud Poker

So like if it’s Jh under and 4d up it’s got to be a fold. TBH I really didn’t think the A and K made that much a difference but I guess it makes sense. So yea I was wrong calling down is fine it seems.

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The bigger issue here isn't the exact hand. You can play around with calculators and get some information from that. The bigger issue is just the sort of thinking going on in the earlier posts.

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08-03-2021 , 07:57 PM

#27

J33W

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 260

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips

The bigger issue here isn't the exact hand. You can play around with calculators and get some information from that. The bigger issue is just the sort of thinking going on in the earlier posts.

Oh and I get it know. Like I said I sat on it and yea I agree that it’s fine to call down.

I still think the c/r on 4th is bad and I think leading 4th is good. That’s honestly what I would have done on 4. It also allows you to bluff lead when you hit another low card on 5th.

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08-03-2021 , 10:12 PM

#28

kisada

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,860

Quote:

Originally Posted by J33W

i wouldn't have thought so either until a couple years ago, like i alluded to. the more i realized that literally every card matters for one reason or another, the better the decisions i made.

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08-03-2021 , 11:43 PM

#29

DeathDonkey

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 12,875

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

dunno if it matters but fwiw:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	32.13%	134,891	134,891	93	121,378	0
qhkcqcjs5s	67.87%	349,278	465,016	93	0	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	33.37%	148,553	148,553	0	109,038	0
qh8cqcjs5s	66.63%	348,062	451,447	0	0	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	31.45%	133,757	133,757	17	115,533	0
qh*cqcjs5s	68.55%	356,314	466,226	17	0	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	20.37%	63,672	63,672	0	122,098	0
qhjcqcjs5s	79.63%	419,249	536,328	0	0	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	14.11%	25,538	25,538	0	122,351	0
jhjcqcjs5s	85.89%	456,215	574,462	0	0	0

fwiw I think the last two combos are more likely what we are going to be up against but I still am in favor of calling 5th. It is sorta close though if the guy never has one pair.

J33W: i think the red flag in your earlier post that rolleduptrips is referring to is this idea that "we are calling down to get our own money back" - like yeah sometimes that is true but here we have all sorts of backdoor scoop draws where they push us the entire pot.

It's quite funny, I've been on these forums since 2003 and for years and years all the fish pushed call too often and now everyone pushes fold too often.

Quote

08-05-2021 , 02:01 AM

#30

RolldUpTrips

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,334

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathDonkey

J33W: i think the red flag in your earlier post that rolleduptrips is referring to is this idea that "we are calling down to get our own money back" - like yeah sometimes that is true but here we have all sorts of backdoor scoop draws where they push us the entire pot.

Yeah it's that but even your comment sort of misses my point. The idea of "calling down to get our own money back" is just wrong and emblematic of a very common sort of flawed thinking. The money is no longer "ours". It belongs to the pot and is part of the odds offered by the pot.

Quote

08-05-2021 , 05:06 PM

#31

DeathDonkey

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 12,875

Fair enough, maybe I'm giving too much credit but I took that as a parlance for "our effective odds are 1:1"
Some people's money just tastes sweeter than others too, you can't put a price on that!

Quote

08-06-2021 , 09:46 AM

#32

J33W

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 260

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips

What’s funny is that I never think that way in one winner games, I’ve only thought of “winning my money back” in split pot games.

Correcting that mindset can only help me. Thank you guys!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

03-31-2023 , 10:02 PM

#33

khrage

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 370

Fold 5th

Quote

04-11-2023 , 10:59 AM

#34

3for3poker

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,502

Quote:

Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS

dunno if it matters but fwiw:

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	32.13%	134,891	134,891	93	121,378	0
qhkcqcjs5s	67.87%	349,278	465,016	93	0	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	33.37%	148,553	148,553	0	109,038	0
qh8cqcjs5s	66.63%	348,062	451,447	0	0	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	31.45%	133,757	133,757	17	115,533	0
qh*cqcjs5s	68.55%	356,314	466,226	17	0	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	20.37%	63,672	63,672	0	122,098	0
qhjcqcjs5s	79.63%	419,249	536,328	0	0	0

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 5

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
3hkh6hadqs	14.11%	25,538	25,538	0	122,351	0
jhjcqcjs5s	85.89%	456,215	574,462	0	0	0

I don't get the weaker hands bet/3! on 4th. I think you are up against 2P+ almost always here. The bad thing about your check raise on 4th is that it made the pot so good you got enticing odds on 5th street, when if you had check called 4th, you could fold 5th. Your back door scoop draws probably give you enough to win the pot, but if you are 'counting outs' I think pairing an overcard isn't one of them.

As you realize, pairing the King/Ace just gives you a marginal bluff catcher. Is it good 9% of the time on the river? Probably. That requires villain having one of the weak hands on 4th, AND not improving on 7th.

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