This is a hypothetical, but probably not an unfamiliar spot for many.

Say villain is over aggressive and overplaying hands pre. But we feel he's not necessarily a strong player or hand reader. We don't know his tendencies when checked to, if we are showing a decent board.

For purposes of the question I'll just say suits are rainbow/irrelevant.

3rd street
5 6 | 7.
V opens xxJ, I call.

4th street
x x J 2
5 6 7 3 he check/calls

5th street
x x J 2 Q
5 6 7 3 4 he check/calls

6th street
x x J 2 Q T
5 6 7 3 4 K

VS described player how often do I try for a c/r here?

My usual ideas here are this:

- Normally I don't think it's too worth it to get fancy here against a villain not showing an open pair. If he hit a 2, Q, or J I'd prob c/r here like 100% of the time

- The better the player is the more inclined I am to c/r on this particular board. I'd expect a better player to read me for a not yet-made low myself, and to wanna bet their single pair JJx once I check

- The worse the player is, the less I'd expect them to have an actual pair worth betting, and the more I'd expect them to have a draw. And as such, giving them a free card would be pretty awful.

Any thoughts? Thanks

I think he checks back often enough that you miss a bet by checking.

Almost never. You either have a low, two pair, or a pair and a big draw here always. He should check back.

His Honor has the arguments in front of him and has rendered a sound decision. We join.

thanks, guys.

so that's a spot i'd actually just often bet myself in his spot, if i felt my reads were pretty good throughout a match: i.e. based on previous hands and experience, villain pretty much never has 2p+. is this a big leak of mine then?

I mean, if he is actually going to bet and call down, then by all means check raise. But he shouldn’t bet

through experience,

in regular stud8, i think the guy with the low board should lean towards checking, because tons of ppl just auto bet their highs in this spot. the worst hand the high guy usually has is a high pair.

im getting killed with this line in super stud (or running bad?) tho because i just get xr or 2p'd OTR everytime i take this line as the high...

The high hand is likely to be like a slight favorite over a naked 1p+ld.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JQT3J4	55.34%	230,565	433,547	0	0	0
27567K	44.66%	166,453	166,453	0	209,931	0

The high hand is a slight dog vs. 1p+ld+oesd.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
JQT3J4	46.74%	221,078	339,815	0	0	0
47567K	53.26%	260,185	260,185	0	224,989	0

either way, this spot is so close to 50/50 there's not much edge to be gained by looking at this imo

the safe play against less experienced players is prolly just to cbet ur straights and OESD+freeroll. with the rest, u lose maybe like 5% by checking.

glad you brought up the comparison because i'm experiencing the same thing lol

Vs a good, aggressive opponent I would k/r a lot on 6th. You should never check 2p/trips here because you should be looking to bet 6 and 7 and get a calldown from 1 high pair. Your 1 pair+low draws are by far your most common check hand, so a great balance hand is a straight. You should also do it sometimes with your weakest freerolls, since the missed bet doesn't punish you as much as it would if you had something like an ace + OESD.

Interesting. Very good point about balancing with freerolls, since you can balance the c/r range, hadn't thought about that. Given that the one pair hand you're targeting here isn't doing that great vs any of the pair+draw hands hero can have, do "good" opponents fire reliably here? Aggressive may be the key adjective.

If I'm villain and I have one pair smaller than Aces I'd check back a lot since this board will have a straight draw so often, or could be trying something like you're describing. It's only really a mistake to miss a bet against precisely paired hands with a deuce ith, and that's a small mistake, but it would be a big mistake to call the c/r and call down, which is what we expect him to do per your line.