Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Stud Discussions of various forms of stud poker.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-30-2020, 12:53 PM   #1
Bhark85
stranger
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 2
Stud

New to stud but have an easy question for someone out there.
Say you get dealt rolled up trips. Assuming no knowledge of other players cards. What are your odds to either upgrading to a full house or 4 of a kind by the end of the hand?

If you can show your math, that would be helpful too.

Last edited by Bhark85; 06-30-2020 at 12:54 PM. Reason: Typo
Bhark85 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2020, 06:30 PM   #2
PoteauMtn
stranger
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 9
Re: Stud

with [ K K ] K your percentage chance :

Quads 8.16 percent

Full House 32.02 percent

The math for quads

49 unknown cards And 4 more cards to complete your hand
4 Card Combinations
49c4 = 211,876
one out for quads (1) King
48-1=47
47c4 = 194,580
combinations with a king
211,876 - 194,580 = 17,296
probability = 17,296 / 211,876 = .081633
8.16 percent chance
odds 12.25
The full house takes more time than I have at the moment
you can google the combination formula there is at least two formulas
for 49c4 that is 4 card combinations for 49 cards
here is one of them
49*48*47*46/24=211,876
49*(49-1)*(49-2)*(49-3) / factoral of 4 (4*3*2*1) = 24
PoteauMtn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2020, 09:00 PM   #3
Bhark85
stranger
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 2
Re: Stud

Thanks, I ran my math at 1st and got 38% earlier. I was close but thought something was still off.
Bhark85 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2020, 09:15 PM   #4
PoteauMtn
stranger
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 9
Re: Stud

I got to thinking the odds for quads in my reply is off by 12 combinations I did not count the hands where the last four cards dealt are all of the same rank for example

[ K K ] K A A A A , 2222 thru QQQQ

SO for quads : 8.17% odds = 12.2
PoteauMtn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2020, 04:34 PM   #5
PoteauMtn
stranger
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 9
Re: Stud

Below is the math for probability of making a Full House

[ A A ] A Starting Hand, 4 more Cards to come from 49 : containing the following combinations that make a full house : 1 pair, 2 Pair and 3 of a kind

1 Pair Combinations : 12 x 4C2 x 11C2 x 4 x 4 = 63,360

2 Pair Combinations : 12C2 x 4C2 = 2,376

3 of a kind combinations : 12 x 4C3 x 11 x 4 = 2,112

Total = 67,848

49C4 = 211,876

probability : 67,848 / 211,876 = 0.320225

ODDs = 3.122803
PoteauMtn is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:50 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online