BI is very well known (mainly in holdem but in all other games also) good rather tight player
MP is unknown for me

PokerStars, $100 + $9 - 7 Stud H/L Limit (H.O.R.S.E.) - 20,000/40,000 (8,000 ante) - 6 players


Seat 4 (Hero): 527,398 (13 bb)
Seat 5: 388,104 (10 bb)
Seat 6: 1,938,138 (48 bb)
Seat 8: 632,022 (16 bb)
Seat 1: 1,359,573 (34 bb)
Seat 2: 1,951,926 (49 bb)

Third Street: (48,000) Hero is in Seat 4
Xx Xx 2♠ BI bets 40,000____BI calls 80,000____BI calls 40,000
A♣ 3♣ A♥ Hero raises to 80,000____Hero 4-bets to 160,000
Xx Xx Q♦ MP 3-bets to 120,000____MP calls 40,000
Xx Xx A♠ MP+1 folds
Xx Xx T♠ CO folds
Xx Xx 5♥ BTN folds

Fourth Street: (528,000) (3 players)
A♣ 3♣ A♥ J♠ Hero bets 40,000____Hero raises to 160,000
Xx Xx Q♦ J♥ MP raises to 80,000____MP calls 80,000
Xx Xx 2♠ 6♦ BI raises to 120,000____BI calls 40,000

Fifth Street: (1,008,000) (3 players)
Xx Xx Q♦ J♥ J♦ MP bets 60,104 (all-in)
Xx Xx 2♠ 6♦ T♦ BI raises to 80,000
A♣ 3♣ A♥ J♠ Q♥ Hero ???

Horrible spot! At this point he is representing trips or some kind of low draw/flush/straight draw combo which is drawing very live. Meanwhile, you have very few outs to improve your hand and between you and the BI your reverse implied odds are very bad for you.

That being said, if he is on a draw, your hand is presently the best in the side pot and you are getting over 10 to 1 on a call closing the action.

*If* your hand is still best vs seat 2 the only streets you can really hope to make any more chips are now on 5th and on 6th street while you hope to fade whatever draw he is on, *if* he is on a draw.

Because he did not jam on 3rd it certainly makes it less likely he has 3 deuces, although calling all the bets would be fine and very deceptive, and I don't really see how he put 3 bets with 662 or TT2 in his hand on 3rd.

At this point you basically have to write off half the pot given seat 5's hand so it's just a case of whether or not you can hold and make 60k if your aces are good and can hold up vs seat 2 or 100k if he bluffs the river.

All things considered,
-in almost every case you only stand to gain 60k/100k from continuing at best unless somehow you can bink a 3 or backdoor low and not be against a queens full in seat 5, assuming a bet goes in on 6th
-the ev on the 60k/100k is only going to be about 50/50 or 60/40 in your favour
-it's basically a dry side pot
-you're likely have to invest either 120k or 160k for a gain that is almost always less than the total invested
-you still have about 200k if you fold and 5 bets is not the end of the world in limit particularly in a WCOOP structure
despite the pot odds and the importance of winning at least half a main pot of this size it's probably best to give it up.

Great thanks for such a detailed answer

>>despite the pot odds and the importance of winning at least half a main pot of this size it's probably best to give it up.

As I calculated direct pot odds are OK:
Hero pot odds 6,5%


Hand_____________Equity
{$W$W 2s} 6dTd__40.88%
Ac3cAhJsQh______17.30%
*QQdJhJd,KKQdJhJd__41.82%
dead cards: AsTs5h

As you see I set rather narrow ranges (for example WW not LL for BI) for opps so 222 and QQQ are also in their ranges.

>>-you still have about 200k if you fold and 5 bets
Yes, but 5 small bets. So speaking of pure ICM I think it's better to fold on fifth, but speaking of FGS with my only 2 Big Bets left I am not sure.

For me it's still the question speaking of turnament strategy shouldn't I just through away my best (about 42%) starter hand on 3rd street just to avoid very expensive varianced 3-way play initiated by rather short (4,5BB) MP seat 5 and to try to find better or at least less varience HU spots in the future?

Probably it's better to calculate different equities for main and side pots. I will try to do it in the future.

I’d check 4th

Thanks for the answer
I think that to decrease variance I should at least call on the 3rd (if not fold).
On the 4th they both go to jam mode and would cap anyway. Probably MP decided that I am on a low draw as he saw another A on the board. Or he was on a jam mood from the beginning.

i saw 20k/40k and assumed 40k = big bet, and 5x 40k = 200k

normally 20/40 in a limit game means 40 is the big bet

am i missing something or is the hand history wrong?

Btw I forgot to account for the possibility of bluffing in my answer but I think based on the action and given the board of Seat 2 it's more than reasonable to assume there is no chance Seat 5 is bluffing and started without 3 low cards or trips because it would be extremely foolish to be doing that when it's so clear that Seat 2 will not fold his hand at any point and that Seat 2 would have way the best of it if Seat 5 gets you to fold.

I'm very guilty of always assuming they opponent has a real hand and started with 3 good cards but the conditions here mean that he cannot be bluffing unless somehow this player reached this stage of the tournament and is knowingly giving his chips away

It's probably so obvious as to not be worth pointing out but I wanted to say this just to make my answer as complete as possible

I would be curious why you think that. Besides the dead A you don't see any clubs, your hand is fairly disguised, and you still have low potential on 3rd even if it is remote. You also don't see any 3's, though maybe if the 2 or 5 door cards get involved you can infer they may be not as live as you would hope.

By raising 3rd it would seem to me you'd clear out quite a few players given the door card and maybe clear our some of the rattiest lows like 28x, 27x, etc., maybe pick up the dead money, or get a favorable heads up situation.

I agree with ninefingershuffle though 4th brings a bad card for a lot of your range in that it brings no low or high help and should begin with a check to keep your range as wide as possible and play the hand as cheaply as possible.

I guess what I am trying to say is that I feel 3rd is fine and sometimes in a tournament all the conditions can be right to put money in early but the cards don't pan out. That doesn't mean you did anything wrong by deciding to play the hand.

Third is fine to play for a cap.

Fourth leading is best to put Queens in the middle. If you check to balance (not bad HU, bad here) then you'll have to pay two cold in jeopardy most of the time and our hand isn't strong enough to b/3b when the low hand can put in an automatic 4b.

Fifth just call and call down. Losing the main pot at the moment, likely still scooping the side.

just_grindin thanks

Sorry, my fault, bad explanation, I didn't mean not 2-bet, I mean call 3-bet instead of cap. This is rather deep in the tounament, about 30 players are left, 104 is the payzone, payjumps are about buy-in at this moment. So ICM consideration is rather important. To win 1 additional small bet is much less ICM important at this stage than to lose 1 with my stack size (about 6 BB).

It's the converter bug, sorry
Initial PS HH is "(7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit) - Level LV (40000/80000)"

Against a low card and a Queen with a premium AAw 2-suit hand, it's much less likely you'll get scooped, so your downside is mitigated, and in a 3-way pot you're getting 2:1 on each sb you put at risk. Queens can fold later in the hand if boards break badly, so getting extra bets in on Third may be your only chance to do so, and the potential cost of a folding error later in the hand is so great you're probably not going to fold unless beaten on board once three bets go in anyway. I think it's too conservative to think only about how expensive losing this hand will be.

Don't forget, that one Ace is dead
So assuming their ranges are
{$W$W 2s} (this opp is really very tight and opens from UTG)
*QQd,KKQd
I am equity favorite but not huge, like 43% - 32% (2) - 25% (Q)
More important that I scoop them ~27%, get scooped also ~27% and about 45% I split with one of them.
Assuming bubble factor is about 1,5 (really probably more close to 1,3-1,4, but just for simplicity) I am rather close to break-even ICM wise.

What is more important, next streets will show my equity more accurately so it's better to postpone our decision.

>>in a 3-way pot you're getting 2:1 on each sb you put at risk.
It's mainly for Stud and Razz, not for split games

Sorry, was a bit wrong. Now I calculate it more precisely and on the 3rd I still have ICM expectation for about 30% of my stack, but on 4th, when UTG catch good with some backdoor/gutshot possibilities for high, I had ICM expectation very close to 0.

I wouldn't cap 3rd in a tournament for three reasons: First You cap your range (meaning when you only call here you still have weaker hands, where as now you only have the top of your range) when adding in a 4th bet. You're heavily weighted towards aces and 3 low/flush cards. This isn't bad in a one off tournament, it's more of a concern in a cash game, but it allows players to play much better vs you in an inflated pot. Inflating the pot allows the other players to play more correct vs you in general, the likely QQ type hands the Q is raising you with (a mistake by the way) is now getting a better price to make two pair, and potentially correctly calling down. Lastly reducing variance in a tournament like this is good for you if you have a big edge on the field. If you're an amateur not familiar with the game then ignore most of what I said and cap at your hearts content if you think you're ahead 3 ways here. if you have an edge it's better to reduce variance in these spots by having a no cap range and finding better spots post to iso raise or raise for value after improving your hand and the equity distributions are more significant.

Great thanks for the answer, ceegee!

I'm rather good, but nor very good S8 player. But as this was the $100, not $1000 tournament, I definitely fill that I have rather big edge on the field where most of the players were from Holdem and Omaha (for example opp really had split QQ) and play stud only during series.