3rd: xxK bi, xx4, fold, I complete (52)4, xx2 2bets, bi folds, I 3bet, he calls (villain had been raising my steels pretty wide so decided to mix in a re-raise here)
4th: xx25 bets, I call (52)4J
5th: I check (52)4J7, xx25K checks back (so I figure he must have 4 to an 8 or worse here)
6th: I check (52)4J75, he bets xx25KA, I call (I'm 19% if he has 83 buried here and only need 15% to continue)
7th: I check (52)4J75(K), he bets xx25KAx, hero?
Result:
Spoiler:
I called and lost to (37)25KA(9). I guess that's the one hand that can check back 5th that has me in very bad shape 6th. My river thinking was there's a decent chance he paired the A given my unblockers although unlikely he paired the 5. But given the 5th action I pretty much need him to have exactly 8x or occasionally 9x buried and have paired 6th and not improved 7th so I think it was a bad call
doesn't villain checking 5th make it a little more likely he paired the 5?
slightly, but because there are three 5's dead it's unlikely. It is more likely he thought a 5 card J7 was stronger than his hand, which paired with hero's read makes sense for him to have a 4 card 8 or 9 draw.
oh right, so basically he's thinking his best 4 cards aren't better than hero's range of 4 cards here. an 8 or a 9 make a lot of sense for villain's checking range then.
I would 100% put villain on a Nine or bad Eight ith when Fifth checks through b/c you should have some c/raises there for value when he has two good cards showing and it sucks to have to put in a two bets with a bad draw. Let me look at the thing and see if I'm right.
[result of look] maybe
Dunno if the cards scramble but I want to think I was right because it makes me feel good about myself and that's a rare thing. That and right after I shave. Look at that mug, a frickin oil painting, why am I not a movie star.
I would have bet a decent Seven draw on Fifth as villain because the c/r if it comes isn't that bad, but not everybody does.
3rd and 4th good, 5th bet for sure ( not seeing having a cr here )
6th bet and decide if he raises, keeping in mind 7 and 5 are really bad cards for him to see given your line 3rd and the 5 in his hand. It would be a pretty above the rim semibluff assuming hes a person capable of realizing the value of the cards you caught because you have a 7 a solid amount of the time
If he just calls your bet on 6th then cc 7th. Lots of 8s or worse value hands tend to check back typically and bets come from nutted 7s and bluffs. You want to face a bet and a check back is usually bad news
I would 100% put villain on a Nine or bad Eight ith when Fifth checks through b/c you should have some c/raises there for value when he has two good cards showing and it sucks to have to put in a two bets with a bad draw. Let me look at the thing and see if I'm right.
[result of look] maybe
Dunno if the cards scramble but I want to think I was right because it makes me feel good about myself and that's a rare thing. That and right after I shave. Look at that mug, a frickin oil painting, why am I not a movie star.
I would have bet a decent Seven draw on Fifth as villain because the c/r if it comes isn't that bad, but not everybody does.
Cards do shuffle, maybe I was wrong to assume he caught the 9 on the river.
