Stud 8 round of mix, 20/40 w/ 3 ante

Guy brings for 5, I complete to 20 with [5x2d]Ad, get called by Jh. Caller is a loose passive, no other read.

4th (89):
[52]AA
Jh9h

I bet and he calls

5th (129)
[52]AA8
Jh9h6

I bet and he calls

6th (209)
[52]AA8J
Jh9h68

I bet and he calls

7th (289)
[52]AA8J[A]
Jh9h68

Do we bet and hope he somehow has two pair and can call? Or check because he's so likely to have one pair or worse?

mmm

i c/c for a few reasons here myself

if he has just 1p he can't call. if he's on a FD he's folding if he blanked or raising if he hit.


what you are really hoping for is for him to have 2 pair and get value from that. so, in the event he has 2 pair: our hand looks more high than low. it's a lot easier for a guy to talk himself into calling with 2p on riv if you might have low + AA. but we don't, and not that i wouldn't bet our hand anyway if i thought he had two pair with a different board, the other factors make me wanna c/c.

I think its a bet since we would bet river with pretty much any lo and will get some cry calls, maybe even fold a bad lo. Not sure if I prefer b/c or b/f though.

Did the caller ever pause in his actions of consider raising? Hate to play Mike Caro on this one, but it sure as hell would pay to know if he were drawing to a flush. Without a read, I'd have to assume he's flushing and doesn't have two-pair and xc. What the hell else makes sense against open aces? Of course it makes no sense to chase for a flush for probably half the pot, but meh, still seems most likely. If s/he does have two-pair s/he may bet it for you anyway.

Interesting spot. Does villain have enough hands in his range here to make a bet profitable? I'm not sure. I think I value bet, but it def seems close. Interested to hear what better players think....

yeah i think this an underrated point and something i forgot to mention.

a villain who is really confident in their abilities might just v-bet jacks up on the river, thinking you had LL|AA8J|brick. only gives me more reason to c/c, myself.

FWIW, I have almost no read on this guy, and this is the first pot he's seen me enter (hand 7 in my first Stud 8 round). Just that he's done a lot of calling thus far and nothing in the way of betting or raising.

As far as live reads go, he called 4th fast when I paired my Ace, so I'd think he would take his time if he had a real decision to make (leading me to think he has even more FD's in his range on 4th then if I didn't pair my Ace), with maybe some [9T]J9 and [QT]J9 type hands as well.

Also, dead cards aren't particularly relevant for either of our boards, hence my omission (but thought anyone posting comments would like to know that).

Good comments so far, guys.

If he's seemingly passive and has called without thinking much so far, he's not betting 7th unless he can beat aces up and nobody expects you to fold open aces. But lots of players will call two pair without thinking. I think bet fold is best.

I don't really like bet/fold on the end. What if he hit trips? Wouldn't he likely raise?

Pretty easy c/c when he could have backed into a low

If you're confident in the read of loose, passive, I think I would slightly prefer bet/fold 7th. Even if he makes a low, he's only going to raise with that read if he hits a straight or flush. If he has two pair or trips, your board makes it difficult for him to bet, especially if he's passive. So, you're only getting value from your hand when you bet and you're only getting raised when you're beat by a loose passive player.

The fact that the best low he can have is an 86 and I can have an 85 should make a difference here, IMO.

Villain most likely has a flush draw with a probable gutshot/open-ended straight draw and/or a pair. Obviously he can have other types of hands (I'm mostly leaving out back door low possibilities here), but he is pretty face up and I don't think I'm too far off on his overall range given those estimations.

If his hand range on 6th is a flush draw with a gutshot/open-ended straight draw, he has 9 outs to improve to the flush and 3-6 outs to improve to the gutshot/open ended straight which = 12-15 outs. For the sake of argument he is probably more likely to be open-ended to his straight so let's say 14 outs.

If he has a flush draw plus a pair he will have 9 outs + 15 outs = 24 outs to "improve". Without even factoring in the equity advantage of us winning a bet by Villain betting some two pair/trips combos a decent % of the time, check calling is still best.

Assuming Villain raises all made flushes/straights, and calls all trips or two pair he will raise us when he hits his 14 outs in the first example and just call when he hits his 15 twopair/trips outs. B/F is a gross spot in limit so I believe that we are risking 2 bets to win 1 (2:1) when Villains ratio of raising vs calling is closer to 1:1 (Again, 1:1 ratio not including times he bets into us anyway).

Also his odds of betting into us are even higher assuming he has a straight + flush draw + a pair.

as a default:
1) check/call naked aces,
2) bet/call naked aces + lows,
3) check/call some aces up,
4) bet/call most aces up,
5) bet/call trip aces

if villain is an old person (70+),
change 3 to b/f,
change 4 and 5 to b/f.
the old person is never raising an 8 low or air on the river.

^^^

Thanks for the help, guys.

Results:

The thing is when you bet you appear unafraid that he has a flush which would indicate you can beat that.

So even if he makes his hand, he likely will not raise you.

Bet!

I'm in the same boat. I tend to bet when I would call a bet anyway and I'm unlikely to get raised. Especially in stud where pots get large and people back into other viable hands like lower two pairs and trips. I was on the negative end of this 2 or 3 times in a previous session, but c'est la vie.

well i think the wawb thing applies, but that doesn't necessarily mean check, right?

assuming you can make a disciplined b/f, you accrue value the times you are ahead and if you fold it's costing you the same number of bets either way if you c/c.

If he is truly a loose passive I think I prefer b/f. In addition to making two pair while going for flush he could have started with a jacks and made jacks up and call in hopes you have aces and low.

I think b/c is giving away money because he's never raising worse. And a passive is not going to raise bluff two aces on board, especially when the guy could have a pair of aces and a low and never fold because of that low. But he's hardly ever raising, might not even raise jacks full/

But C/f isn't that bad. Why do we feel obligated to show it down? This is a small pot, only getting 5.75 to 1. If we are calling because he could have a low it's only 2.86 to 1 on our money. Sure it's possible he backed into a low. But you need to compare that possibility with the pot odds. I'm not calling just because it's possible.