From WSOP Razz... Sorry for lack of additional details... I don't recall the exact order the cards came out. Aces were live -- I had one in my hand, but hadn't seen any others.

Experienced pro (and Razz bracelet winner) bets sixth street showing 7-5-3-2. I call with a made 8-6; both the 8 and the 6 are visible. He'd been betting his better board the entire way; he's capable of doing so with nothing, but he's also capable of doing so with 4-A in the hole.

Seventh street is dealt. I don't improve. Villain comes out betting on the river.

What's my action?

Really hard to answer without more info including approximate stacks and order of action preflop (what position did villain complete from). Also all the cards in your 86 lo since they change the odds of villain pairing. I lean fold and think 6th might also have been a fold. Realistically what is the worst hand villain opens, maybe t76?. So unless villain has something like t7x,97x where x paired the board its very dicey.

Unless you have a read he's going to bet 6th check 7th. I think calling 6th is decision point. Folding 7ish. Big bet pot on river seems like a mistake.

Does he really think you will fold an 8?

Or does he know that you know he thinks you won't fold an 8, and therefore is bluffing?

Usually pot odds will solve the levelling war.

So, Hellmuth? You're still 16% here so I guess if you're getting better than 6:1 you have to sigh call.

There's a little back story behind my thoughts on this hand.

In the 2015 WSOP Razz event, I made a value bet on the river with what appeared to be a very obvious 7-5, and in fact was a 7-5 much like the one that Villain is representing in this hand.

My opponent in that hand was Allen Kessler. He folded and told me I played the hand horribly. For the most part, I shook off the criticism for two reasons: I won the hand, and he didn't actually know what I had. He may have read me perfectly, but I'm also capable of betting K-7-5 there, or maybe I rivered a wheel. I'm guessing that Kessler missed his wheel draw, and was just venting a bit, but truth be told, that was the one hand from 2015 that sticks with me, just because of the table talk.

So here, I'm thinking that if there's any nugget of truth in Kessler's criticism of me two years ago, then Villain here isn't betting a 7-5. In that case, I have to call, because his hand is polarized between really strong hands and bluffs.

However, if Villain is smarter than both Kessler and myself, then maybe he's leveling me, and betting the 7-5 thinking that it looks suspicious and he'll get that extra bet of me.

As it turned out, Villain turned up A-A-2 at the end. I'm guessing that with Villain holding 3-2-2-A-A, he was probably right in assuming that I'm drawing very thin to actually beat a 7-5.


I've thought a few times since then whether I should have tried a SIWAS; talked myself out of it at the table because the only other river raise I'd made in the tourney turned out poorly for me. (I raised a 6-5-4-3-2 that I rivered, only to find that my opponent in that hand had rivered a better 6, and he 3-bet me.)

Don't know what he could call with that you beat. But it might sow confusion in the ranks of your enemies, so there could be some ITO here.

Kessler advice is worth what you paid for it

What is a SIWAS please?

A SIWAS (Sometimes It's Worth a Shot) is a raise on the river when you fully expect to have the worst hand.

The term was coined by Brandon Shack-Harris in 2008 in one of the epic Stud forum threads... http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/20...h-shot-164748/