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Old 02-07-2020, 08:11 PM   #1
tableclown
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Odds question

7 stud hi only
1.) Odds of getting two pair by the river / last card

2.) Odds of making a pair by the river / last card
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Old 02-07-2020, 08:45 PM   #2
tableclown
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Re: Odds question

Assuming no outs are showing
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Old 02-08-2020, 01:54 AM   #3
Fold&Forget
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Re: Odds question

Do you start without any pair in both points? 8-handed?

Last edited by Fold&Forget; 02-08-2020 at 02:00 AM.
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Old 02-08-2020, 08:50 AM   #4
Fold&Forget
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Re: Odds question

So if you start with 2s8hKd without known dead cards at all:

5-card hand type is one pair by seventh street 48,6070%
5-card hand type is at least one pair by seventh street 75,8771%

5-card hand type is two pair by seventh street 20,3450%
5-card hand type is at least two pair by seventh street 27,3057%
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Old 02-08-2020, 10:03 PM   #5
tableclown
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Re: Odds question

Are those odds similar against situations like this:

AsAd(5s)

vs.

Kd9c(Ks)

Do the aces have 75% equity? Assuming its heads up and no dead cards shown.
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Old 02-09-2020, 01:30 AM   #6
Fold&Forget
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Re: Odds question

This is completely different (and more easy to answer) question. Everybody uses popular and free propokertools.com, please see below

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsAd5s66.94% 401,6412
Kd9cKs33.06% 198,3572
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Old 02-09-2020, 02:13 PM   #7
tableclown
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Re: Odds question

Appreciate the responses, I'm new to stud and I'm trying to get a feel for it.

So in other words, when you are behind in stud early, you are far behind like in HL holdem... I also play Pot Limit Omaha and equity runs very close a lot of the time.

My weakness now in stud is understanding %'s and also understanding where I am at in a hand. Example, I will have Qs9d(Qd) and I will raise, someone will re-raise with ? ?(8s) and I will scratch my head for the rest of the hand.

Or spots where I start with a potential draw like 3 suites or 3 straight cards, do you only play this multi-way and muck it if you know its heads up? (If thats the case, at a tight-ish table, I should only play high cards such as jacks or better preflop? and only go on draws when its obviously multiway and no dead cards?)

The two games in question are 20/40 and 75-150 stud... Moreso 20/40 stud. Live



I really want some kind of strategy advice, Im gonna start reading Skalanskys stud book today.


Is it possible to play too tight? I would think the antes might eat you over time? I do recall sitting for 5 hours and I only received maybe 3 premo hands like JJ/AA/KK....
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:23 PM   #8
Fold&Forget
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Re: Odds question

I think you should use all kind of materials to get this needed feel.
Books including new ones like "Mastering Mixed Games: Winning Strategies for Draw, Stud and Flop Games by Dylan Linde", videos, WSOOP and Scoop stud replays and so on. Use propoker tools to investigate hands with showdowns. Use this forum beginning from search tool. Here you could find really great players answering interesting questions for specific hands.

I am more about mathematics of stud, not about play, anyway about your questions:
If opps play tight you have to use 3straight and 3flush to steal a lot even in HU. Especially with high cards giving you additional outs.
Don't forget that live high kicker is very important, ex 2A2 and especially 22A - are rather good hands.
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:40 PM   #9
tableclown
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Re: Odds question

Put in about 40 hours so far 20/40, not enough but just to see. Early mistakes are starting to be obvious which is good.

Playing steals to far after hitting an enticing card. Gotta remember this isn't nlh.

Not giving respect to 3bets with a 5 showing for example. Lot of times I called down with jj which is probably bad vs the range I'm against, literally jj qq kk aa. Fourth chance of being a tie. Derp

Going past 5th street with just overcards to the bettor. Not sure how bad this is if I know he just has 88 for example.

I know I'm missing bets when I'm ahead. Like I'll have aa and not get 2 pair and check back river for example.

Is it common to bluff fifth street when the aggessor checks 5th? Or do stone cold bluffs rarely exist in this hand selection equity simulator game?
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Old 02-14-2020, 11:12 AM   #10
Fold&Forget
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Re: Odds question

It's equity calculator, it's not solver, so there is no bluff in propokertools
You should know your opp, but mainly it's normal to bluff 5th after check, if he was an aggressor from the beginning.
With overcards in HU pot you should be aggressor, not 88
equity wise AKQ has 43% equity vs 288
but AKQ45 - only 29% against 28845
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:17 PM   #11
3for3poker
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Re: Odds question

Quote:
Originally Posted by tableclown View Post
Appreciate the responses, I'm new to stud and I'm trying to get a feel for it.

So in other words, when you are behind in stud early, you are far behind like in HL holdem... I also play Pot Limit Omaha and equity runs very close a lot of the time.

My weakness now in stud is understanding %'s and also understanding where I am at in a hand. Example, I will have Qs9d(Qd) and I will raise, someone will re-raise with ? ?(8s) and I will scratch my head for the rest of the hand.

Or spots where I start with a potential draw like 3 suites or 3 straight cards, do you only play this multi-way and muck it if you know its heads up? (If thats the case, at a tight-ish table, I should only play high cards such as jacks or better preflop? and only go on draws when its obviously multiway and no dead cards?)

The two games in question are 20/40 and 75-150 stud... Moreso 20/40 stud. Live



I really want some kind of strategy advice, Im gonna start reading Skalanskys stud book today.


Is it possible to play too tight? I would think the antes might eat you over time? I do recall sitting for 5 hours and I only received maybe 3 premo hands like JJ/AA/KK....
A lot depends on the makeup of your and your opponents kicker. If you have an overcard kicker, and a 2 flush, you are about 45/55.

If your opponents pair and kicker card have one dead card, you are a favorite from behind.
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Old 03-31-2020, 11:02 AM   #12
MRBA
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Re: Odds question

One important point that gives me trouble in stud is that the pot gets large compared to the size of one more bet. So let's say you raise with (QJ)Q v two loose but not terrible players showing undercards. Now one of them makes a three flush on 5th, while you have not improvement. Do you check here? Bet/fold? And if you do stay for a bet, are you then committed to showdown, given how large the pot has become?
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:07 PM   #13
SligoFella
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Re: Odds question

Bet/fold given the reads of the player pool in stud games at large. Flush is unlikely even if villian started with a card between 5-9 on 3rd street, so that makes a bet mandatory.

Last edited by SligoFella; 04-02-2020 at 02:11 PM. Reason: Error in 1st sentence
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