JUST WOW !!!!!
I know on the end you want to get value from all two pairs, but when he calls 4th facing the open Aces (just for the sake of discussion, assuming this guy is reasonable) and he's got A
8
, you'd have to figure he has a
big draw ... like 4 baby spades most likely ... giving him 8 outs to flush the end (which he'll raise, but we should often fill I know, but ignoring that for
this hand - i.e we should bet but just exploit this spot) vs 9 outs for two pair and 2 for trips (which he'll raise and never be good) - Also, he doesn't always call with two pair ... so say half the time he does ... then
(I just put them in terms of outs but the math is the same as %s obv).
so EV of bet/call = -2*8 + 1*4.5 + 2*2 = -15.5 (Ignoring he's animal enough to bluff raise the end).
whereas EV of c/c = -1*8 + 1*2 + (% bluffs) > -6 (Could stab given you
should be v-betting here)
so EV(c/c) = 2.5*EV(b/c)
I know it's sick not to value bet here, and terrible for metagame, but in a vacuum it doesn't seem so good - any thoughts ? (or have I just duffed the math as usual
)
Last edited by LT7; 02-03-2009 at 04:53 AM.
Reason: teh maths obv