No, you're not. You're thinking of THIS hand, but you've altered the details so much that a completely standard hand now sticks out in your mind as this terrible terrible beat. You're 76 draw on 4th with a K brick on 5th somehow turned into you catching a 5 and my **9K2 somehow turned into **9K8. You even described the exact session it was from and named the third party villain involved. I found the hand, dug it up and LMAO when I saw what you were crying about. I posted the hand, and now you won't even admit that you were wrong, yet still berate my imaginary plays. These sorts of things happen when you post bad beat hand after bad beat hand on the forums and find yourself unable to be unaffected from taking one at the table. You will never advance as a poker player until you stop getting so hung up over bad beats... It's really affecting you whether you realize it or not. Even to the point of you lying to yourself about the fine details of the hand.
Last edited by RainmanTrail; 03-30-2010 at 05:59 PM.
Oh balls, this is all content and I apologize but here goes.
You shouldn't make such an assumption, but if you are correct, it actually hurts your hand. When two hands share a dead card, the hand with the better rankings gains significantly in equity. Run some sims to see what I mean. You should always consider unseen cards unknown when making preliminary assessments.
Such guesses only matter (only improve your hand) if you can reliably put the Aces in the folded hands, not the live ones.
Your equity position is extremely volatile on Third with so many little cards out. Fourth street will tell you so much, and usually give you either an easy fold or an opportunity to raise and shorten the field that folding this hand is very bad. Also, I think you are being overly respectful of opponents' ranges. You can be somewhat more realistic by opening their ranges up a little.
Your hot-and-cold equity on Third is of secondary importance while equity is so volatile. This hand is not going to remain multi-way for long (you shouldn't allow it to, I mean), and if you catch a good card you're either going to be able to get it heads-up on the next street or get a bunch of money in with a nice overlay. If you don't catch, you have a trivially easy fold.
In short, you have excellent implied odds and no reason to put another bet in if you don't have a good Fourth street situation. You should play here.
I had a tough time deciding what to do in this spot. It's still a bit murky to me. I like how you're approaching the hand though, at least you're not taking the... "easy call" or "easy fold" lines of reasoning. I applaud you for reasoning it out. I think I'm going to have to sit down and crunch this one out. FWIW, the reason I gave the 3rd and 4th raisers both 6- is because I have them both tagged as yellow on FTP which for me implies that they are super nitty. I assumed I was actually being generous by giving them 6- (and if I recall correctly, they both had 3 card wheels). I didn't want to continue in the hand if I ended up with A768 on 4th, and felt like I wouldn't be able to fold it because the pot was so big... one of my leaks. Anyhow, I decided to get away from it at the time. I'm still not convinced one way or the other yet... I'll do some deeper analysis and see if I come up with the same thing you have.
Thanks again for using logic rather than emotion in your response. Something the Stud community is severely lacking in at times.
3rd Street: (1 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 7____Seat 1 folds
Seat 3: xx xx 3____Seat 3 raises____Seat 3 caps!
Seat 5: xx xx 6____Seat 5 folds
Hero: 4 5 2___Hero brings in for $1___Hero calls___Hero calls
Seat 7: xx xx 8____Seat 7 calls____Seat 7 folds
Seat 8: xx xx J____Seat 8 completes____Seat 8 3-bets____Seat 8 calls
4th Street: (13.333 SB) (3 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 3 9____Seat 3 raises____Seat 3 calls
Hero: 4 5 2 3___Hero 3-bets___Hero calls
Seat 8: xx xx J J____Seat 8 bets____Seat 8 caps!
5th Street: (12.667 BB) (3 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 3 9 5____Seat 3 bets____Seat 3 calls____Seat 3 calls
Hero: 4 5 2 3 A___Hero raises___Hero caps!
Seat 8: xx xx J J T____Seat 8 checks____Seat 8 3-bets____Seat 8 calls
6th Street: (24.667 BB) (3 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 3 9 5 6____Seat 3 calls____Seat 3 3-bets____Seat 3 calls
Hero: 4 5 2 3 A 9___Hero raises___Hero caps!
Seat 8: xx xx J J T K____Seat 8 bets____Seat 8 calls____Seat 8 calls
7th Street: (36.667 BB) (3 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 3 9 5 6 xx____Seat 3 calls____Seat 3 calls
Hero: 4 5 2 3 A 9 A___Hero raises all in
Seat 8: xx xx J J T K xx____Seat 8 bets all in
Spoiler:
Final Pot: 41.083 BB
Seat 3 shows 8d 7h 3d 9c 5h 6s 2s (HI: a straight, Nine high; LO: 7,6,5,3,2)
Hero shows 4s 5c 2c 3c Ac 9s Ad (HI: a straight, Five high; LO: 5,4,3,2,A)
Seat 8 mucks Js 8c Jc Jd Th Ks 3h
Seat 3 wins 0.833 BB
Hero wins 0.833 BB
Seat 3 wins 19.5 BB
Hero wins 19.417 BB
(Rake: $3.00)
No, you're not. You're thinking of THIS hand, but you've altered the details so much that a completely standard hand now sticks out in your mind as this terrible terrible beat. You're 76 draw on 4th with a K brick on 5th somehow turned into you catching a 5 and my **9K2 somehow turned into **9K8. You even described the exact session it was from and named the third party villain involved. I found the hand, dug it up and LMAO when I saw what you were crying about. I posted the hand, and now you won't even admit that you were wrong, yet still berate my imaginary plays. These sorts of things happen when you post bad beat hand after bad beat hand on the forums and find yourself unable to be unaffected from taking one at the table. You will never advance as a poker player until you stop getting so hung up over bad beats... It's really affecting you whether you realize it or not. Even to the point of you lying to yourself about the fine details of the hand.
Hitting quads in Razz. Was going to SIWAS, but villain would have called me down anyway.
Full Tilt Poker $10 + $1 Limit Razz Tournament - t200/t400 Limit + t30 - 7 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
Seat 1: t2017 M = 3.95
Seat 3: t3457 M = 6.78
Seat 4: t1309 M = 2.57 Hero (): t4958 M = 9.72
Seat 6: t2550 M = 5
Seat 7: t6571 M = 12.88
Seat 8: t6280 M = 12.31
3rd Street: (1.05 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 8____Seat 1 calls
Seat 3: xx xx J____Seat 3 brings in for $50____Seat 3 folds
Seat 4: xx xx A____Seat 4 completes
Hero: 5 3 5___Hero calls
Seat 6: xx xx 9____Seat 6 folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4____Seat 7 folds
Seat 8: xx xx T____Seat 8 folds
4th Street: (4.3 SB) (3 players)
Seat 1: xx xx 8 2____Seat 1 bets
Seat 4: xx xx A 9____Seat 4 folds
Hero: 5 3 5 6___Hero checks___Hero calls
Congratulations, you sir are the founding member of my ignore list.
I don't know if you are really as bad as your posts here, I can't imagine you are. I'm convinced that you are intentionally misleading everyone here as a level to keep the games as soft as you can. Surely you're not as bad as you lead everyone here to believe by your posts.
FWIW, your betting line assessment accuracy ratio on 2+2 has to be around 5% correct... on a good day .
This is nice stuff, not friendly but nice. Wanted to highlight the highlights, ended up with this.
We're almost certainly in last place with two cards dead in a pot with only 3 antes and we're facing two bets cold.
Only good points I can see is that we have a good door card and the xx4 might raise with a worse hand or something.
Also is 5th standard?
I know about putting extra money in from the xx4KQ but we don't even have 33% in the pot. Although we increase to a 2 to 1 dog should he fold (unlikely) is it still worth it?
On 5th, I think Hero took the least desirable of his four reasonable lines -- I like check/call, check/raise, and bet/call all better than I like bet/raise.
When Hero decides to bet/raise, he has to assume that if the guy in the middle calls, this street is getting capped or at least 3-bet, and that's not good for Hero; as pointed out already, he doesn't even have 1/3 equity, and is a heads-up dog to Seat 6's range.
In order to maximize the chance that the guy in the middle folds, Hero needs to set him up to see two bets cold. Hero could check/raise here on 5th, maximizing the chance that the guy in the middle folds. Furthermore, if he check/raises, this street doesn't need to get capped; the cap bet would be on Hero, and he could refuse to put in the cap bet.
And if Hero goes for the check raise and it gets checked through, that's not awful; it also means that Hero is just about 100% sure to be the big equity favorite, and both opponents are drawing runner-runner just to beat Hero's made Jack low.