Oh balls, this is all content and I apologize but here goes.
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Originally Posted by RainmanTrail
Thoughts here?(Note: I assumed there were probably 1 or 2 dead Aces down in villains hands, so my hand isn't quite as bad as it looks...)
You shouldn't make such an assumption, but if you are correct, it actually hurts your hand. When two hands share a dead card, the hand with the better rankings gains significantly in equity. Run some sims to see what I mean. You should always consider unseen cards unknown when making preliminary assessments.
Such guesses only matter (only improve your hand) if you can reliably put the Aces in the
folded hands, not the live ones.
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... So, $116.50 in pot, costs me 24 to see 4th.
Your equity position is extremely volatile on Third with so many little cards out. Fourth street will tell you so much, and usually give you either an easy fold or an opportunity to raise and shorten the field that folding this hand is very bad. Also, I think you are being overly respectful of opponents' ranges. You can be somewhat more realistic by
opening their ranges up a little.
Your hot-and-cold equity on Third is of secondary importance while equity is so volatile. This hand is not going to remain multi-way for long (you shouldn't allow it to, I mean), and if you catch a good card you're either going to be able to get it heads-up on the next street or get a bunch of money in with a nice overlay. If you don't catch, you have a trivially easy fold.
In short, you have excellent implied odds and no reason to put another bet in if you don't have a good Fourth street situation. You should play here.