75/150 game with 25 ante, 25 bring-in, 8 handed.

Seat 5 with 2 brings in
Q folds in Seat 6
Seat 7 with 6 completes to 75.
J folds in Seat 8.
Hero has (AA)8 in Seat 1 with three high cards and the bringin left behind.

Seat 5 has shown some station tendencies, Seat 7 seems solid and aggressive. Seats 2 and 3 have also been playing some high hands and calling down against low boards.

Hero's image is TAG. Raising or flatting here? I'd be raising for sure with almost anything but an 8 door, but with the 8 it seems to telegraph more of a high hand and I'm especially wary of Seat 7.

Hero just calls, folds to bringin who calls

4th st
xx2K checks, calls
xx64 bets
(AA)8Q calls

5th st

xx2KK bets
xx638 raises
(AA)8Q2 ??

Unfortunate street... Aces are probably still good for high but my board is so disconnected there's no way K's are folding and he might even pop it back if he has 2-pair or better.

Thoughts appreciated

This looks like a fold to me. Your weighted equity is well below 30% so you can’t stand to be jammed. If you think that seat 5 won’t jam than it is closer but requires implied odds. How comfortable would you be jamming two pair against a possible straight?

Yes seat 7 should be raising a pair and 4 low but even then and if seat 2 only has kings you still only have 35% equity.

3rd street I would raise. Does seat 7 think you play 8 lows? I would also be raising 88A and 88 with a low suited connector. But would call 876 with highs behind.

4th street. Raise. You are not playing a busted 8 low against a 64 so no opportunity to disguise. Just try to get it heads up.

Oops I just noticed that 4th and 5th street are inconsistent with the low hand. The board was xx638 not xx648.

I like the idea of raising 4th since I would indeed be folding most 8 low draws there.

Full game and big ante is another reason to raise 3rd.

Nod in this ante structure I would play a 3 low razz hand, so I like reraise 3rd. As played I am 3 betting 5th street. Can't recall who said we only have 35% but we are 3 ways! That's pretty good!

Really big antes, would raise 3rd, would raise 4th.

At first pass did not like the suggestion to three bet 5th because when up against two pair and low we have less than 20% equity. But if that’s the case then it’s probably getting capped anyway so you should get the action in should you be up against a 4 low and just KK and 35-40% equity

It is a bit closer than I initially thought. It looks like you will be getting 3 to 1 if it is a 4 bet cap and 2.8 to one if it is a 5 bet cap. So I guess that translates to 20% to 25% needed equity respectively. But of course that is hot and cold. AA really seems to have a lot of RIO here. All made lows that don’t contain an ace have straight draws putting you in a pickle if seat 7 catches another low. Plus if seat 5 does have Kings up or trip Kings than you are in worse shape here. Good discussion. Thanks OP.

Yeah I don't mind a fold, part of reason why said to continue is because read of Seat 5 being a station and thus KK+ plus some longshot stuff in range

But does any good player have KK+ 3 low or KK+ 3 flush there? Dead diamonds all around, and his low can't be that great as there was no re-raise on 3rd. Possibly, I guess the K is a good high card, he doesn't fear a raise, and the ante is big.


I don't think a fold is too tight.


And fold is best if KK more weighted to two pairs which I think good players are.

However, if you continue on 3 betting is play. When you just call and it's a good scenario for you only two bets go in with 35-40% equity three-ways. Thus you want more going in on times other than when you are crushed

he called when the king came on 4th. so his chances of having the kd in the hole is great.
so get out against the open pair. i dont like the hand if it was straight high even here.

how do you like laying two to one on 5th street with aces against three kings and a possible straight or one working..

My thoughts on 'telegraphing a high hand' is 'so what?' I don't get it. If you're perceived as a decent player you're not coming along w/ a rag 8 are you? It seems that you'd rather appear to have (7-6)8. I think you over-thought.

Then again I don't play that high, maybe there are different considerations.

AA8 is a powerhouse, raise for value

This structure is very good for this exact spot on third because you should have a decent range of raises here on third including (A8)8, (76)8, big concealed pairs, suited hands and depending on game flow even razzy lows containing Ace-wheel. Not raising (AA) is a pretty big mistake in this structure because it allows the Bring to come along with any scrap of a hand.

We have breakeven equity against complete ranges on Fifth but I prefer making money over breaking even so I usually fold unless villains are of a certain type. You have a backdoor to a good Eight, but your sideboards are dead so making Aces-up is unlikely and there are some really bad scenarios as Ray Zee points out.

Death Donkey has an expensive but interesting suggestion. Raising will over-rep your hand as some kind of secret monster like dead trips, and if you don't get a fold from just Kings on this street (fearing a cap), you'll probably have to play for a cap, but hands as good as Kings-up will certainly check to the low on the next street and you can hit him with two cold there, which might work. It's obviously high variance and a disaster against a straight draw and stubborn hi hand, but there are lineups where it will work to earn you half.

These ranges were constructed crudely but I don't think we have anywhere near 35%

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

dead cards: 6 J Q

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
Ac Ad | 8h 2c Qd	27.59%	58,342	225,296	12	54,179	127
$L$L, *2, 99+ | 2KK	27.37%	59,427	240,577	39	31,919	273
$L$L |863	45.04%	110,852	134,077	49	370,885	274

That 35% number has been misinterpreted throughout this thread, it was mentioned as the approximate equity (actual being 35-40%) should the kings have something like KK plus a three low or three flush

Now of course you can be way lower than the 35%, for example you have lower than 20% if he has kings up

Seat 5 was indicated to have station tendencies in original OP which is why some players are continuing on.

And should you continue on you should 3 bet not to really over rep your hand as some super monster but simply to get the extra bet in should your equity indeed be in the 35-40% range. By just calling it will be 2 bets going in with 35-40% equity but probably a cap when you have less than 20%

I think in the propoker tools you should also add three diamonds. Ray said the Kd in hole is highly likely due to the fact that he called 4th, but with that large ante structure, high card to pair K, and read in OP about station tendencies I don't think his call narrows his range at all

If we reraise Fifth we have to prepare to get jammed by any made low if the KK flats or potentially see two cold (in a 5-bet live structure) if KK knows what's up and has a big hand, so it's not getting one more bet in, it's getting maybe three bets in when we could be drawing slim for half.

Well, I'm always working under the assumption that we have a 4 bet cap as that is how it's played in the games I play

However, the times we are indeed drawing slim to half it's often going to be capped regardless of what we do. Unless the plan is to flat and fold to further action, but that seems iffy


When we put in the 3rd bet more money will go into the pot the times our equity is at the upper bound of slightly more than 40% and not only the times we are crushed. So that's the rationale behind that.

All that said I'm Ok with folding and probably would. But if continuing on 3 betting has that merit to it under 4 bet cap

Where is this game played?

Raise third, but honestly, I could fold, call, or raise 5th depending on the players involved.