Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Stud Discussions of various forms of stud poker.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-09-2017, 06:41 PM   #1
Dynasty
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dynasty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 24,926
Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

This hand offered a situation I don't remember encountering before. I'm wondering how hard I can push what I think is thin value against an opponent with a very coordinated board.

My opponent in this hand is a competent player who hasn't done anything stupid while we've played together. He's from California and asked somebody else at the table if the Commerce 20-40 game was any good. The opponent has gotten bored with no-limit hold 'em and has been playing stud lately. However, his play indicates that he's either an incredibly fast learner or he played stud many years ago and has recently returned to the game.

The hand:

The ante is $5 and the bring-in is $10

Third Street
Seat 1: (x,x)6
Seat 2: (x,x)5
Seat 3: (Q4)Q (me!)
Seat 4: (x,x)8
Seat 5: (x,x)9
Seat 6: (x,x)J
Seat 7: (x,x)J
Seat 8: (x,x)2

Seat 8 with the 2 is the $10 bring-in. The 6 folds.

The player on my right limps with the 5 and I raise with my split Queens.

The 8 calls. The 9, J, J, and 2 fold. The 5 calls.

Three players see fourth street with $140 or 4.67 small bets in the pot.

Fourth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)53
Seat 3: (Q4)Q7 (me!)
Seat 4: (x,x)82

I bet. Seat 4 folded and my lone opponent raised with the 53 showing. I called.

Two players see fifth street with 4.33 big bets in the pot.

Fifth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)536
Seat 3: (Q4)Q79 (me!)

I bet. My opponent called.

Two players see sixth street with 6.33 big bets in the pot.

Sixth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)5367
Seat 3: (Q4)Q79K:diamon d: (me!)

I bet. Is it a good bet?

But, more importantly, if my opponent raises his 5367 board, can I three-bet him with just a pair of Queens in this spot?
Dynasty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-09-2017, 07:33 PM   #2
Howard Beale
Formerly red
 
Howard Beale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Doing what my dog wants
Posts: 19,763
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Have you won the Powerball recently?

I bet 6th, fwiw.
Howard Beale is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-09-2017, 08:29 PM   #3
prototypepariah
old hand
 
prototypepariah's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,704
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

definitely betting into him given the 4 in our hand.

why would you want to 3! him? If he raises he's committed imo to betting river. Since you have the 4spade and he didn't raise 5th it's basically impossible for to him to have a 4. So let him barrel.

If you 3 bet are you going to then bet fold river? What's he calling with on river? Are we going to 3! bet then check river?

Same amount of bets go in "better" imo without a 3 bet on 6th.
prototypepariah is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2017, 03:45 PM   #4
Sean Snyder
newbie
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 49
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Assuming I guessed right, villain in your hand played 100/200 Stud every day for years at Commerce before going to Vegas to play 10/20 no limit back in 2010 or 2011. He's a smart and solid player but he has very very little gamble in him.
Sean Snyder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2017, 12:37 AM   #5
lstream
old hand
 
lstream's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Loose enough to be dangerous
Posts: 1,313
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Interesting spot. Seems to me there are three possibilities here. The first is a premium pocket pair. Shouldn't be kings or aces the way he played. Jacks are pretty dead, so maybe pocket tens. However, I think tens should raise on third, so I am inclined to rule them out. But many players will also limp with then tens.

Next possibility is 567 , or 567 with a two flush. When he catches the 3, he could be attempting to buy a free card on fifth or beyond. But you don't cooperate and bet into him on fifth. No raise is consistent with the gut shot with either the three flush or four flush. Why charge yourself to draw? Briefly considered rolled fives, but I can't convince myself of that one.

Third possibility is a four flush. Similar logic to the second possibility. Probably the most likely scenario.

I like the bet on sixth, because you are ahead in 2 of the 3 scenarios. But if you get raised, then you are likely facing two pair - sixes and sevens, or worse, meaning trip sixes or sevens, which I guess is the fourth possibility. But I have a hard time believing trips, since he should have folded earlier with those pocket pairs.

So I would be really surprised if you get raised on sixth, but if you do, I put him ahead, and slow down.
lstream is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2017, 04:05 AM   #6
Dynasty
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dynasty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 24,926
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Results:

The hand didn't have any drama going forward.

My sixth street bet was called and I checked the river dark. My opponent checked behind and a pair of Queens was good.

My opponent (apparently, Sean Snyder above) said he was open-ended and had a pair in addition to his flush draw.
Dynasty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2017, 04:07 AM   #7
Dynasty
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dynasty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 24,926
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Quote:
Originally Posted by prototypepariah View Post
Are we going to 3! bet then check river?
That was my post-hand thought: Three-betting and checking the river dark.

It's certainly a strange line.
Dynasty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2017, 04:42 AM   #8
DeathDonkey
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DeathDonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 12,212
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

I would check call 4th
DeathDonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2017, 11:28 AM   #9
Phat Mack
Pooh-Bah
 
Phat Mack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: People's Republic of Texas
Posts: 5,972
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
I would check call 4th
I don't understand this line. Do you want two opponents?
Phat Mack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2017, 03:51 PM   #10
DeathDonkey
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DeathDonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 12,212
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

If you think I'm wrong then I submit that checkraise is the next best line. But I think call is ok and let the 82 come along. If 53ss hits well on 5th we are maybe done with it anyway and if not we probably blow him out there. My thinking is to protect our range that doesn't always have queens here. Clearly we want to peel with three big cards.
DeathDonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2017, 01:07 AM   #11
Phat Mack
Pooh-Bah
 
Phat Mack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: People's Republic of Texas
Posts: 5,972
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Cool. I was thinking that betting here would protect our range in case we ever showed up with a big hand, but I understand your thinking. Perhaps I'm too tight.
Phat Mack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2017, 01:41 AM   #12
prototypepariah
old hand
 
prototypepariah's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,704
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Fwiw this isn't stud 8. If he doesn't have a flush draw and you wiff the c/r, giving 2 hands a free bee is a mistake.
prototypepariah is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2017, 02:44 PM   #13
nuggetz87
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
nuggetz87's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 15,347
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Quote:
Originally Posted by lstream View Post
Shouldn't be kings or aces the way he played.
why not? new-ish stud player, sorry if that's a dumb question.


why are we leading 5th? our specific hand is only 50% vs. a range of ss,76,64, and when you add big cards and flush draws into our range our range vs. range equity drops fast.

another newb question: does villain have 5x on 3rd street? do we have all BBB and hhh?
nuggetz87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2017, 07:19 PM   #14
Mason Malmuth
Top Dog
 
Mason Malmuth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: @MasonMalmuth
Posts: 10,050
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dynasty View Post
This hand offered a situation I don't remember encountering before. I'm wondering how hard I can push what I think is thin value against an opponent with a very coordinated board.

My opponent in this hand is a competent player who hasn't done anything stupid while we've played together. He's from California and asked somebody else at the table if the Commerce 20-40 game was any good. The opponent has gotten bored with no-limit hold 'em and has been playing stud lately. However, his play indicates that he's either an incredibly fast learner or he played stud many years ago and has recently returned to the game.

The hand:

The ante is $5 and the bring-in is $10

Third Street
Seat 1: (x,x)6
Seat 2: (x,x)5
Seat 3: (Q4)Q (me!)
Seat 4: (x,x)8
Seat 5: (x,x)9
Seat 6: (x,x)J
Seat 7: (x,x)J
Seat 8: (x,x)2

Seat 8 with the 2 is the $10 bring-in. The 6 folds.

The player on my right limps with the 5 and I raise with my split Queens.

The 8 calls. The 9, J, J, and 2 fold. The 5 calls.

Three players see fourth street with $140 or 4.67 small bets in the pot.

Fourth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)53
Seat 3: (Q4)Q7 (me!)
Seat 4: (x,x)82

I bet. Seat 4 folded and my lone opponent raised with the 53 showing. I called.
Hi Dynasty:

I question this bet. Players who catch a straight flush card almost always bet, so going for a check raise to knock the third player out looks best to me (even though he folded anyway).

Quote:
Two players see fifth street with 4.33 big bets in the pot.

Fifth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)536
Seat 3: (Q4)Q79 (me!)

I bet. My opponent called.

Two players see sixth street with 6.33 big bets in the pot.

Sixth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)5367
Seat 3: (Q4)Q79K:diamon d: (me!)

I bet. Is it a good bet?
I think the answer has two parts.

1. If you bet will your opponent ever fold? and this should be a clear no. His hand was good enough to call your fifth street bet and now he has picked up another out.

2. If you check will your opponent bet? I think the answer is highly likely. He probably has at least a lot of outs here and will hope that by betting you just might fold. And if has made the straight, then he'll certainly bet.

So it seems to me that you gain nothing by betting and may save a little by check/calling.

Quote:
But, more importantly, if my opponent raises his 5367 board, can I three-bet him with just a pair of Queens in this spot?
Even if he has only a gut shot, the pot is probably large enough for him to call your reraise. So why not just call and let him bluff again on the river if all he has is the gut shot draw and he misses on the river?

Best wishes,
Mason
Mason Malmuth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2017, 07:23 PM   #15
Mason Malmuth
Top Dog
 
Mason Malmuth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: @MasonMalmuth
Posts: 10,050
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Snyder View Post
Assuming I guessed right, villain in your hand played 100/200 Stud every day for years at Commerce before going to Vegas to play 10/20 no limit back in 2010 or 2011. He's a smart and solid player but he has very very little gamble in him.
Hi Sean:

I think your statement is a bit of a contradiction. $100-$200 stud has a very high ante structure which implies you'll need to have some gamble in you. Thus, if he doesn't adjust well for $30-$60 stud this may carry over to that game as well.

On the other hand, if the $100-$200 stud at Commerce has a different from standard ante structure, then my statement may not be correct.

Best wishes,
Mason
Mason Malmuth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2017, 08:25 PM   #16
DeathDonkey
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
DeathDonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale
Posts: 12,212
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Mason, the 1/2 commerce game has a $20 ante so it's a slightly high ante but nothing crazy (bellagio 300/600 mix does a $100 ante!)
DeathDonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2017, 09:12 PM   #17
kidcolin
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
kidcolin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: thank god for the hatchery
Posts: 103,413
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
I would check call 4th
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phat Mack View Post
I don't understand this line. Do you want two opponents?
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
If you think I'm wrong then I submit that checkraise is the next best line. But I think call is ok and let the 82 come along. If 53ss hits well on 5th we are maybe done with it anyway and if not we probably blow him out there. My thinking is to protect our range that doesn't always have queens here. Clearly we want to peel with three big cards.
I've been taking similar lines with weak big pairs, i.e. no flush/straight connections, for the same protection reasons. I would agree in this situation check raise is best but seat 4 bricked as bad as possible so maybe a call is fine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by prototypepariah View Post
Fwiw this isn't stud 8. If he doesn't have a flush draw and you wiff the c/r, giving 2 hands a free bee is a mistake.
It's hard to envision a scenario where seat 2 won't bet that board unless he's a really passive player. Like what does he check back there. (44)5 or something?
kidcolin is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2017, 09:36 PM   #18
kidcolin
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
kidcolin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: thank god for the hatchery
Posts: 103,413
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Interesting thought from seat 2's perspective: is there a hand in his 6th street raise range that he shouldn't 4-bet if Dynasty 3-bets? Cuz I'm having a hard time seeing one.
kidcolin is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2017, 10:00 PM   #19
Mason Malmuth
Top Dog
 
Mason Malmuth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: @MasonMalmuth
Posts: 10,050
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
Mason, the 1/2 commerce game has a $20 ante so it's a slightly high ante but nothing crazy (bellagio 300/600 mix does a $100 ante!)
Thanks Donkey:

I was assuming a $25 ante. $20 will slow the game down some.

Best wishes,
Mason
Mason Malmuth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2017, 02:54 PM   #20
ceegee
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ceegee's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Last, Best Hope of Western Stud
Posts: 6,424
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

4th street: Theoretically I think checking is fine here. Our total range isn't doing so great on the 7c 4th vs the 53ss & 82hd. I think as a range play, I agree check call is good

Exploitively I think bet is fine as we're getting value from the 82hd, 53ss and are doing well 3-ways here with QQ.

on 4th there may be a mixed strategy here, and both are ok.

5th I think is a good check as he's going to be betting most of his draws here, and he is a range favorite. He either has a flush draw, pair+straight draw, or flush draw + straight draw unless he's getting tricky with a weak pair of 5's.

6th I think is a must check here as you block the 4s which is great, and I think he's turning any draw into a bluff here by betting 6th/7th. If we bet 6th and get raised it's pretty gross, and even if he calls we're forced to check 7th so we aren't really looking for two streets of value with this hand vs this range and board.
ceegee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2017, 08:51 PM   #21
Howard Beale
Formerly red
 
Howard Beale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Doing what my dog wants
Posts: 19,763
Re: Bellagio 30-60 Stud: Thin (and Super Thin?) Value on Sixth Street

It's been a while since I've played Stud Hi but I started out in the NYC clubs where it was THE game at mid-stakes until HE showed up (DAMMIT!) and I never saw anyone check 4th in a spot like this.
Howard Beale is online now   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online