This hand offered a situation I don't remember encountering before. I'm wondering how hard I can push what I think is thin value against an opponent with a very coordinated board.

My opponent in this hand is a competent player who hasn't done anything stupid while we've played together. He's from California and asked somebody else at the table if the Commerce 20-40 game was any good. The opponent has gotten bored with no-limit hold 'em and has been playing stud lately. However, his play indicates that he's either an incredibly fast learner or he played stud many years ago and has recently returned to the game.

The hand:

The ante is $5 and the bring-in is $10

Third Street
Seat 1: (x,x)6
Seat 2: (x,x)5
Seat 3: (Q4)Q (me!)
Seat 4: (x,x)8
Seat 5: (x,x)9
Seat 6: (x,x)J
Seat 7: (x,x)J
Seat 8: (x,x)2

Seat 8 with the 2 is the $10 bring-in. The 6 folds.

The player on my right limps with the 5 and I raise with my split Queens.

The 8 calls. The 9, J, J, and 2 fold. The 5 calls.

Three players see fourth street with $140 or 4.67 small bets in the pot.

Fourth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)53
Seat 3: (Q4)Q7 (me!)
Seat 4: (x,x)82

I bet. Seat 4 folded and my lone opponent raised with the 53 showing. I called.

Two players see fifth street with 4.33 big bets in the pot.

Fifth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)536
Seat 3: (Q4)Q79 (me!)

I bet. My opponent called.

Two players see sixth street with 6.33 big bets in the pot.

Sixth Street
Seat 2: (x,x)5367
Seat 3: (Q4)Q79K:diamon d: (me!)

I bet. Is it a good bet?

But, more importantly, if my opponent raises his 5367 board, can I three-bet him with just a pair of Queens in this spot?

Have you won the Powerball recently?

I bet 6th, fwiw.

definitely betting into him given the 4 in our hand.

why would you want to 3! him? If he raises he's committed imo to betting river. Since you have the 4spade and he didn't raise 5th it's basically impossible for to him to have a 4. So let him barrel.

If you 3 bet are you going to then bet fold river? What's he calling with on river? Are we going to 3! bet then check river?

Same amount of bets go in "better" imo without a 3 bet on 6th.

Assuming I guessed right, villain in your hand played 100/200 Stud every day for years at Commerce before going to Vegas to play 10/20 no limit back in 2010 or 2011. He's a smart and solid player but he has very very little gamble in him.

Interesting spot. Seems to me there are three possibilities here. The first is a premium pocket pair. Shouldn't be kings or aces the way he played. Jacks are pretty dead, so maybe pocket tens. However, I think tens should raise on third, so I am inclined to rule them out. But many players will also limp with then tens.

Next possibility is 567 , or 567 with a two flush. When he catches the 3, he could be attempting to buy a free card on fifth or beyond. But you don't cooperate and bet into him on fifth. No raise is consistent with the gut shot with either the three flush or four flush. Why charge yourself to draw? Briefly considered rolled fives, but I can't convince myself of that one.

Third possibility is a four flush. Similar logic to the second possibility. Probably the most likely scenario.

I like the bet on sixth, because you are ahead in 2 of the 3 scenarios. But if you get raised, then you are likely facing two pair - sixes and sevens, or worse, meaning trip sixes or sevens, which I guess is the fourth possibility. But I have a hard time believing trips, since he should have folded earlier with those pocket pairs.

So I would be really surprised if you get raised on sixth, but if you do, I put him ahead, and slow down.

Results:

The hand didn't have any drama going forward.

My sixth street bet was called and I checked the river dark. My opponent checked behind and a pair of Queens was good.

My opponent (apparently, Sean Snyder above) said he was open-ended and had a pair in addition to his flush draw.

That was my post-hand thought: Three-betting and checking the river dark.

It's certainly a strange line.

I would check call 4th

I don't understand this line. Do you want two opponents?

If you think I'm wrong then I submit that checkraise is the next best line. But I think call is ok and let the 82 come along. If 53ss hits well on 5th we are maybe done with it anyway and if not we probably blow him out there. My thinking is to protect our range that doesn't always have queens here. Clearly we want to peel with three big cards.

Cool. I was thinking that betting here would protect our range in case we ever showed up with a big hand, but I understand your thinking. Perhaps I'm too tight.

Fwiw this isn't stud 8. If he doesn't have a flush draw and you wiff the c/r, giving 2 hands a free bee is a mistake.

why not? new-ish stud player, sorry if that's a dumb question.


why are we leading 5th? our specific hand is only 50% vs. a range of ss,76,64, and when you add big cards and flush draws into our range our range vs. range equity drops fast.

another newb question: does villain have 5x on 3rd street? do we have all BBB and hhh?

Hi Dynasty:

I question this bet. Players who catch a straight flush card almost always bet, so going for a check raise to knock the third player out looks best to me (even though he folded anyway).

I think the answer has two parts.

1. If you bet will your opponent ever fold? and this should be a clear no. His hand was good enough to call your fifth street bet and now he has picked up another out.

2. If you check will your opponent bet? I think the answer is highly likely. He probably has at least a lot of outs here and will hope that by betting you just might fold. And if has made the straight, then he'll certainly bet.

So it seems to me that you gain nothing by betting and may save a little by check/calling.

Even if he has only a gut shot, the pot is probably large enough for him to call your reraise. So why not just call and let him bluff again on the river if all he has is the gut shot draw and he misses on the river?

Best wishes,
Mason

Hi Sean:

I think your statement is a bit of a contradiction. $100-$200 stud has a very high ante structure which implies you'll need to have some gamble in you. Thus, if he doesn't adjust well for $30-$60 stud this may carry over to that game as well.

On the other hand, if the $100-$200 stud at Commerce has a different from standard ante structure, then my statement may not be correct.

Best wishes,
Mason

Mason, the 1/2 commerce game has a $20 ante so it's a slightly high ante but nothing crazy (bellagio 300/600 mix does a $100 ante!)

I've been taking similar lines with weak big pairs, i.e. no flush/straight connections, for the same protection reasons. I would agree in this situation check raise is best but seat 4 bricked as bad as possible so maybe a call is fine.

It's hard to envision a scenario where seat 2 won't bet that board unless he's a really passive player. Like what does he check back there. (44)5 or something?

Interesting thought from seat 2's perspective: is there a hand in his 6th street raise range that he shouldn't 4-bet if Dynasty 3-bets? Cuz I'm having a hard time seeing one.

Thanks Donkey:

I was assuming a $25 ante. $20 will slow the game down some.

Best wishes,
Mason

4th street: Theoretically I think checking is fine here. Our total range isn't doing so great on the 7c 4th vs the 53ss & 82hd. I think as a range play, I agree check call is good

Exploitively I think bet is fine as we're getting value from the 82hd, 53ss and are doing well 3-ways here with QQ.

on 4th there may be a mixed strategy here, and both are ok.

5th I think is a good check as he's going to be betting most of his draws here, and he is a range favorite. He either has a flush draw, pair+straight draw, or flush draw + straight draw unless he's getting tricky with a weak pair of 5's.

6th I think is a must check here as you block the 4s which is great, and I think he's turning any draw into a bluff here by betting 6th/7th. If we bet 6th and get raised it's pretty gross, and even if he calls we're forced to check 7th so we aren't really looking for two streets of value with this hand vs this range and board.

It's been a while since I've played Stud Hi but I started out in the NYC clubs where it was THE game at mid-stakes until HE showed up (DAMMIT!) and I never saw anyone check 4th in a spot like this.