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Old 04-19-2017, 12:52 AM   #1
pokerponcho
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40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

8 handed HOE

Hero has [JdTd]Qd
Villian 1 has 2d and brings in, thinking player who steams
Villian 2 has Ts and calls, weak player all around
9d in the muck, a Q mucks
Hero raises with the somewhat live (two diamonds are gone, and one straight possibility, another Q mucks) straight-flush repping split queens, and getting value in against the T. The 2, re-raises, call, call. My hope that the T might get out does not seem to be happening, though I don't mind it terribly. I suspect the 2 may have 3 to a straight, wired aces or wired kings, rolled up trips, or three to a flush with three lows, (no aces or kings out, so seems most likely holding). I can safely ignore the possibility of a split pair, or a wired pair of Queens or lower. I place V2 on a likely split pair of tens, weak wired pair, or three to a flush, maybe even three to broadway with some loopholes in it, or otherwise raggedy straight, though I can safely remove ace-rag as I don't think he was THAT bad of a player, but in Omaha saw some serious cheese. I think most likely split tens. Low cards are somewhat deader than usual.

4th street.
7s for V1, 8h for V2, and 9h for H (bringing a four straight)

H bets, V1 raises, V2 calls, H calls.

5th street
V2 has only about 3.5 BB left.

V1 catches a 7, and bets. V2 catches an offsuit 6, and H makes the straight with an 8.

V1 bets, V2 calls, H raises, V1 3 bets.

V2 calls (I think desperation with split tens, but who knows)

H re-raises (made straight looks good against aces-up, which seems entirely plausible given the action.

V1 re-raises (do I think he's full at this point, and call down, or do I think he has three sevens with three to a flush here? Or do I think it's three ducks with walking sticks? Or is he steaming with Aces Up) The sevens do not match the suit of his door card.

V2 calls

H ??? decides to 4bet intending to muck to a 5bet

V1 5bets, V2 calls (who the hell knows)

H mucks straight.

I am 100% sure my steam engine will 5bet with steam boat, so fold is clear, which made the 4bet/fold line easier. A smarter player may have just called 4 bet, and wait until 6th to raise again. But should I have slowed down on 5th street sooner?
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Old 04-19-2017, 03:16 AM   #2
monikrazy
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

Your straight is fairly well disguised, I'm not sure we can 4b!/fold 5th without much stronger reads

I also don't really like raising preflop with so many good cards for us dead, limping seems better and folding might be best
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Old 04-19-2017, 11:12 AM   #3
LUCIUS VARENUS
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

I think the clue was in his raise on 4th street.
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Old 04-19-2017, 11:49 AM   #4
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

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Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
Your straight is fairly well disguised, I'm not sure we can 4b!/fold 5th without much stronger reads

I also don't really like raising preflop with so many good cards for us dead, limping seems better and folding might be best
Only 3 of 17 cards for the straight or flush are dead. That's still 14, and there are pair draws as well, 5 of them make a Q or J. This hand is somewhat live.
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Old 04-19-2017, 11:52 AM   #5
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

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Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS View Post
I think the clue was in his raise on 4th street.
That was the point of making it 4. It may have been cheaper to simply turn my cards face up and see how he reacts, lol.
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Old 04-19-2017, 11:55 AM   #6
LUCIUS VARENUS
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

It would probably have been superior to call down rather than getting a bunch of bets in and then folding.

You would at least then see a showdown but for the same investment or less.

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Old 04-19-2017, 12:22 PM   #7
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

On 3rd St.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9Q6654
Hand Board Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
JdTdQd38.24% 169,074289,03690700
XX2d33.87% 126,273143,075130163,523161
T9-,TJ+,99-Ts27.89% 116,013166,95682959,804161

My raise has some equity. Folding would be a mistake.

Looking at some stats on 5th street, I am actually a 52-48 dog to trip sevens with an Ad in it, and a 3-1 favorite over AA,KK, so there is some value to finding out on 5th. I did not realize that I would be a dog to trips there. This particular opponent would only re-raise 3rd with Ad7d2d, and still have a seven.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-
Hand Board Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
JdTdQd9h8c60.18% 342,063380,150000
AA,KK,Ad7d,222d7c7h39.82% 219,850219,850038,3860

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-
Hand Board Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
JdTdQd9h8c74.58% 425,706469,250000
AA,KK2d7c7h25.42% 130,750130,750043,5440

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-
Hand Board Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
JdTdQd9h8c48.10% 247,671329,526000
Ad7d2d7c7h51.90% 270,474270,474087,3370

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-
Hand Board Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
JdTdQd9h8c0.24% 1,4681,468000
222d7c7h99.76% 598,532598,532000

An expert would re-raise with trip sevens as well as a boat (which this person is not).

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9Q6654TT9-
Hand Board Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
JdTdQd9h8c11.68% 60,29579,875000
22,Ad7d2d7c7h88.32% 520,125520,125020,8990

Calling down seems correct mathematically without a strong read on how the opponent plays.

Last edited by pokerponcho; 04-19-2017 at 12:34 PM.
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Old 04-19-2017, 02:47 PM   #8
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

What am I missing? Villain should happily jam any razz hand three ways here
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Old 04-19-2017, 03:16 PM   #9
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

On 5th:

An 85 in the hole in a 3 way pot for high has only 29% equity, and when he's all in, it's 37% to 63%, so not advantageous on 5th, though advantageous on 3rd, and 4th.
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Old 04-19-2017, 08:59 PM   #10
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

Do you think you can safely exclude 77 and 27 ITH?
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Old 04-19-2017, 10:06 PM   #11
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS View Post
Do you think you can safely exclude 77 and 27 ITH?
I thought I could safely exclude, but looking at the equity calculator, the 77 in the hole, or the 27 has nearly 40% equity, which was a surprise to me, tbh. I still do not think this particular opponent would re-raise here from my observation. But, it would not be a bad play. 42% equity if I have the split queens. Though you can get into rough spots with lower two-pairs, which is why it does not seem like an obvious play to me.
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Old 04-20-2017, 03:45 PM   #12
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

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Originally Posted by DeathDonkey View Post
What am I missing? Villain should happily jam any razz hand three ways here
He can't have a made low yet because he paired his 7
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Old 04-20-2017, 04:15 PM   #13
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerponcho View Post
On 5th:

An 85 in the hole in a 3 way pot for high has only 29% equity, and when he's all in, it's 37% to 63%, so not advantageous on 5th, though advantageous on 3rd, and 4th.


Not sure what you are talking about I can't seem to run a sim where the low draw doesn't have around 35% against two high hands here. If he knows the third guy won't fold it's an easy jam
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Old 04-20-2017, 06:23 PM   #14
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

Yes, DD, you are correct, on 3rd it's a raising hand for the 2 with razz hands

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 9Q654
Hole Cards Board Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
JdTdQd34.66% 110,135305,19784500
852d40.04% 102,262113,83942310,703257
T9-,TJ+,99-Ts25.30% 80,021180,09086150,753257
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Old 04-20-2017, 08:50 PM   #15
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

I'm saying on fifth street.
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Old 04-20-2017, 11:14 PM   #16
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

V2 is all-in.
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Old 04-20-2017, 11:29 PM   #17
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

One of my favorite things in Stud 8 is jamming a low equity hand into a high board, then having the high board fold after putting in a bunch of money. Just great. Like petting a kitten.

As Hero I'm never jamming this hand into a paired board that seems intent on driving the action. But once a bunch of bets go in I'm also never folding.
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Old 04-21-2017, 03:57 AM   #18
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

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Originally Posted by pokerponcho View Post
V2 is all-in.


That's not at all clear from your first post. You said V2 called the 5 bet on fifth.
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Old 04-21-2017, 10:00 AM   #19
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

I don't raise Third and I'm definitely not folding here.
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Old 04-29-2017, 04:15 PM   #20
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

Don't fold big hands in big pots in limit poker imo.

Also from your reads I feel like you are describing a stud high only hand. You said this was Stud 8.

And on 3rd street why are you trying to rep a pair of queens when 2 other queens are dead?
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Old 05-21-2017, 08:02 PM   #21
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

Quote:
Originally Posted by LUCIUS VARENUS View Post
It would probably have been superior to call down rather than getting a bunch of bets in and then folding.

You would at least then see a showdown but for the same investment or less.

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Old 05-27-2017, 02:00 AM   #22
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Re: 40/80 Stud8 5th Street (Made Straight)

ive played a lot of years and cant think of many or even any players that 4 bet fold in poker having money long term. for many reasons. one of which is being wrong is too costly and two if seen doing it now you become the bluff target and lose the ability to play well.
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