I've gone back and forth on these spots in the past, and I find myself re-visiting them lately.
One thing to note is that this structure is very nitty. Not a lot of incentive to continue wide in most spots.
Hand #1
5th street is where I've bounced back and forth about calling and folding. I generally use the dead cards and my read on the player to make a decision here as I think it's very close. If the player is wide or the dead cards are in my favor I call, and fold if not. In this hand A, 4, and 5 are dead which is bad for me. I would understand folding is correct. Once we get to the river again I use my reads on player combined with dead cards. If I think villain will under-bluff river then I am happy to be folding, if I think villain will always bet river then I'm forced to call.
PokerStars,
Razz Limit - $10/$20 ($1.50 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker
dolmren: $516.48 (52 bb)
afghan herat: $562.00 (56 bb)
gregor7878: $440.85 (44 bb)
WTFOMFGOAO: $667.26 (67 bb)
Ceegee87: $522.12 (52 bb)
DrGogo: $243.00 (24 bb)
zilbeee: $500.50 (50 bb)
jp_legacy: $491.55 (49 bb)
Third Street: ($12) Hero (Ceegee87) is in Seat 1
Xx Xx Kx jp_legacy bring-in $3____
jp_legacy folds
Xx Xx Ax
dolmren folds
Xx Xx 2x
afghan herat folds
Xx Xx 4x
gregor7878 folds
Xx Xx 8x
WTFOMFGOAO raises to $10____WTFOMFGOAO calls $10
2x 6x 3x
Ceegee87 raises to $20
Xx Xx 9x
DrGogo folds
Xx Xx 5x
zilbeee folds
Fourth Street: ($55)
(2 players)
Xx Xx 8x 4x
WTFOMFGOAO bets $10
2x 6x 3x Jx
Ceegee87 calls $10
Fifth Street: ($75)
(2 players)
Xx Xx 8x 4x Jx
WTFOMFGOAO bets $20
2x 6x 3x Jx Tx
Ceegee87 calls $20
Sixth Street: ($115)
(2 players)
2x 6x 3x Jx Tx Qx
Ceegee87 checks____
Ceegee87 calls $20
Xx Xx 8x 4x Jx 8x
WTFOMFGOAO bets $20
Seventh Street: ($155)
(2 players)
2x 6x 3x Jx Tx Qx 7x
Ceegee87 checks____
Ceegee87 calls $20
Xx Xx 8x 4x Jx 8x Xx
WTFOMFGOAO bets $20
Total pot: $195.00 (Rake: $3)
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Dead - KA2495
600000 trials (randomized)
Our All-in Equity on 5th. The biggest issue here is that we won't realize a lot of it on 6th if we brick and are folding. Also the reverse implied odds of getting to showdown calling a bet vs a 9 or better.
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Lo % | Ties Lo % | Wins Lo Count | Ties Lo Count | |
---|
236JT | 37.7283% | 37.7190% | 0.0187% | 226314 | 112 | |
{[a,2,3,4,5,6,7] [a,... | 62.2717% | 62.2623% | 0.0187% | 373574 | 112 | |
Hand #2
Very similar to hand #1, however 6th street lands in our favor and it shows the good part of peeling. We get to the river and are forced to make another annoying decision. Will villain bluff at an equilibrium here? if not which way will he lean.
PokerStars,
Razz Limit - $10/$20 ($1.50 ante) - 5 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker
Ceegee87: $486.74 (49 bb)
4outs2full: $312.12 (31 bb)
zilbeee: $400.00 (40 bb)
karpuha: $270.50 (27 bb)
WTFOMFGOAO: $837.62 (84 bb)
Third Street: ($7.50) Hero (Ceegee87) is in Seat 1
Xx Xx Qx WTFOMFGOAO bring-in $3____
WTFOMFGOAO folds
6x 8x 2x
Ceegee87 raises to $10
Xx Xx Tx
4outs2full folds
Xx Xx Tx
zilbeee folds
Xx Xx 8x karpuha calls $10
Fourth Street: ($30.50)
(2 players)
6x 8x 2x Tx
Ceegee87 bets $10
Xx Xx 8x 8x karpuha calls $10
Fifth Street: ($50.50)
(2 players)
6x 8x 2x Tx Jx
Ceegee87 checks____
Ceegee87 calls $20
Xx Xx 8x 8x 3x
karpuha bets $20
Sixth Street: ($90.50)
(2 players)
6x 8x 2x Tx Jx 4x
Ceegee87 bets $20
Xx Xx 8x 8x 3x Qx karpuha calls $20
Seventh Street: ($130.50)
(2 players)
6x 8x 2x Tx Jx 4x Kx
Ceegee87 checks____
Ceegee87 calls $20
Xx Xx 8x 8x 3x Qx Xx
karpuha bets $20
Total pot: $170.50 (Rake: $3)
Our all-in equity again is very similar.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Dead - TTQ
1019 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Lo % | Ties Lo % | Wins Lo Count | Ties Lo Count | |
---|
682TJ | 39.4014% | 39.2542% | 0.2944% | 400 | 3 | |
{[a,2,3,4,5,6,7,9][a... | 60.5986% | 60.4514% | 0.2944% | 616 | 3 | |
How often do(es)
PLAYER_1 have hand vs. range equity of at least 35% on sixth street
54.9558% (560)
Thoughts? Do you always call 5th? If so how are you determining your bluff catching frequency by the river?
I feel that if you're calling 5th, you need to be close to perfect on the river in these spots in order to not fall into a largely -EV play vs a close to 0 EV or slightly winning play on 5th.