I've gone back and forth on these spots in the past, and I find myself re-visiting them lately.
One thing to note is that this structure is very nitty. Not a lot of incentive to continue wide in most spots.

Hand #1
5th street is where I've bounced back and forth about calling and folding. I generally use the dead cards and my read on the player to make a decision here as I think it's very close. If the player is wide or the dead cards are in my favor I call, and fold if not. In this hand A, 4, and 5 are dead which is bad for me. I would understand folding is correct. Once we get to the river again I use my reads on player combined with dead cards. If I think villain will under-bluff river then I am happy to be folding, if I think villain will always bet river then I'm forced to call.

PokerStars, Razz Limit - $10/$20 ($1.50 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

dolmren: $516.48 (52 bb)
afghan herat: $562.00 (56 bb)
gregor7878: $440.85 (44 bb)
WTFOMFGOAO: $667.26 (67 bb)
Ceegee87: $522.12 (52 bb)
DrGogo: $243.00 (24 bb)
zilbeee: $500.50 (50 bb)
jp_legacy: $491.55 (49 bb)

Third Street: ($12) Hero (Ceegee87) is in Seat 1
Xx Xx Kx jp_legacy bring-in $3____jp_legacy folds
Xx Xx Ax dolmren folds
Xx Xx 2x afghan herat folds
Xx Xx 4x gregor7878 folds
Xx Xx 8x WTFOMFGOAO raises to $10____WTFOMFGOAO calls $10
2x 6x 3x Ceegee87 raises to $20
Xx Xx 9x DrGogo folds
Xx Xx 5x zilbeee folds

Fourth Street: ($55) (2 players)
Xx Xx 8x 4x WTFOMFGOAO bets $10
2x 6x 3x Jx Ceegee87 calls $10

Fifth Street: ($75) (2 players)
Xx Xx 8x 4x Jx WTFOMFGOAO bets $20
2x 6x 3x Jx Tx Ceegee87 calls $20

Sixth Street: ($115) (2 players)
2x 6x 3x Jx Tx Qx Ceegee87 checks____Ceegee87 calls $20
Xx Xx 8x 4x Jx 8x WTFOMFGOAO bets $20

Seventh Street: ($155) (2 players)
2x 6x 3x Jx Tx Qx 7x Ceegee87 checks____Ceegee87 calls $20
Xx Xx 8x 4x Jx 8x Xx WTFOMFGOAO bets $20

Total pot: $195.00 (Rake: $3)



ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Dead - KA2495
600000 trials (randomized)


Our All-in Equity on 5th. The biggest issue here is that we won't realize a lot of it on 6th if we brick and are folding. Also the reverse implied odds of getting to showdown calling a bet vs a 9 or better.
All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Lo %	Ties Lo %	Wins Lo Count	Ties Lo Count
236JT	37.7283%	37.7190%	0.0187%	226314	112
{[a,2,3,4,5,6,7] [a,...	62.2717%	62.2623%	0.0187%	373574	112

Hand #2

Very similar to hand #1, however 6th street lands in our favor and it shows the good part of peeling. We get to the river and are forced to make another annoying decision. Will villain bluff at an equilibrium here? if not which way will he lean.

PokerStars, Razz Limit - $10/$20 ($1.50 ante) - 5 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

Ceegee87: $486.74 (49 bb)
4outs2full: $312.12 (31 bb)
zilbeee: $400.00 (40 bb)
karpuha: $270.50 (27 bb)
WTFOMFGOAO: $837.62 (84 bb)

Third Street: ($7.50) Hero (Ceegee87) is in Seat 1
Xx Xx Qx WTFOMFGOAO bring-in $3____WTFOMFGOAO folds
6x 8x 2x Ceegee87 raises to $10
Xx Xx Tx 4outs2full folds
Xx Xx Tx zilbeee folds
Xx Xx 8x karpuha calls $10

Fourth Street: ($30.50) (2 players)
6x 8x 2x Tx Ceegee87 bets $10
Xx Xx 8x 8x karpuha calls $10

Fifth Street: ($50.50) (2 players)
6x 8x 2x Tx Jx Ceegee87 checks____Ceegee87 calls $20
Xx Xx 8x 8x 3x karpuha bets $20

Sixth Street: ($90.50) (2 players)
6x 8x 2x Tx Jx 4x Ceegee87 bets $20
Xx Xx 8x 8x 3x Qx karpuha calls $20

Seventh Street: ($130.50) (2 players)
6x 8x 2x Tx Jx 4x Kx Ceegee87 checks____Ceegee87 calls $20
Xx Xx 8x 8x 3x Qx Xx karpuha bets $20

Total pot: $170.50 (Rake: $3)

Our all-in equity again is very similar.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Dead - TTQ
1019 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Lo %	Ties Lo %	Wins Lo Count	Ties Lo Count
682TJ	39.4014%	39.2542%	0.2944%	400	3
{[a,2,3,4,5,6,7,9][a...	60.5986%	60.4514%	0.2944%	616	3

How often do(es)
PLAYER_1 have hand vs. range equity of at least 35% on sixth street
54.9558% (560)



Thoughts? Do you always call 5th? If so how are you determining your bluff catching frequency by the river?

I feel that if you're calling 5th, you need to be close to perfect on the river in these spots in order to not fall into a largely -EV play vs a close to 0 EV or slightly winning play on 5th.

What is your question in the first hand? You have a clear continue on Fifth. There are quite a few Sixth streets where you will be nutting him with a better redraw.

Hand two I also can't imagine folding the river vs an opponent who bluffs even the smallest percentage. Your river binks can be very good hands, but if he bricks he can't beat a Jack, so this is a spot where he should be getting raised a lot. It looks like a bad bet, and w/ some opponents those are often desperation bluffs.

In Hand 1, if you are planning on folding 6th you can calculate the probability that you will be able to continue on the next Street and then apply that to your 5th Street hot/cold. Then you just need to consider the impact of 7th Street play against this adjusted equity. And also some 6th Street implied where you have best hand and best draw.

In both these hands I think you can learn a lot by setting up a grid for 6th of all of the possibilities and probabilities associated with them, how often you will be able to continue, how often you will get a good peel and so on and so forth. Go further than just looking at 5th Street hot and cold imo

yeah i think 1 is pretty standard. easy continue and the hand pretty much plays itself out. Never ever folding 7th. Maybe you can fold like 1 in 7 times so you aren't completely exploitable in these spots, although the fact that you have check/raises in your range sooooorta tips the scale in the odds that villain isn't bluffing; but overfolding getting those odds would be a grave mistake.

hand 2, dang, yeah, same situation. call, take notes what he's betting with and use it in future to abuse him with c/r in similar spots

i like where you're headed but no matter what you come up with i don't think folding at any point in these hands would be advised.

yeah maybe, I haven't studied these spots enough to know for sure and it was OP that mentioned he might be able to fold on some 6th streets. If we aren't folding any 6th streets in these hands there are definitely examples we have played or could come up where we should do some folding where 5th was marginal and 6th went bad.

Pro Poker Tools does some cool stuff. I'm not familiar enough with it to know everything but I know it can at least answer questions like how much do you have at least X% equity on the next card or it can produce a graph of our overall equity situation on the next street.

But if I was going to analyze it, I'd look at a grid of the 169 different ways that 6th street could fall, and try and gain insight that way or even try and model EV (including 7th street) based upon a set of assumptions. Even if we are sure it's profitable the magnitude is important because then we know how to adjust to situations where it seems closer.

WHen i get some time i will attempt to do what youre saying. But yeah of course there are some 6th streets he would fold...i was referring to the actual hands posted...i dont think folding at any point in either would be good. Now, in a tournament, that's a different discussion...

Paging SGSpecial...

That would be great, was hoping someone would give it a try!

Eventually I was probably going to to give it a go too

Maybe I'm crazy but both of these 5th streets seem like super-clear continues to me.

and you gotta wonder...just how strong is villain's hand in hand 2? 5 handed, a deuce completing into TT8...seems the 8 would raise most of his good hands. Any reads on villain?

most of the time I think this means a nine, ten (unlikely here), or a jack in hole

If he's passive, it could be a really rough 678

I do know some players who will flat their entire continuing range here with an 8 versus a 2 too though

Basically, even if we feel these are super clear continues we in some cases we are not realizing our equity and in general even when we always continue on average we will be losing money on the last two betting rounds.

So it will be interesting to see the impact of that. People always seem to stop their analysis on 5th, they see they have a big overlay of equity over pot odds and call it a day. There's value in seeing if it's closer than what the experts think. We can analyze our EV if our opponent is always bluffing 7th, never bluffing 7th, or bluffing at exact correct frequency.

I got your page. Sorry it took a while, but you know how F'd up the postal service has been these days. I wouldn't recommend doing what Scotch suggested. That's almost exactly what I did years ago, and while it's incredibly effective and enlightening and was able to turn a yutz like me into a decent razz player, it took sooooo damn long. But maybe you're better with computers than I am

Here is the distribution of ceegee's equity on 6th street in the first hand
Notice that we see three clumps as a takeaway here

opponent hits good and ceegee hits bad : we have about 12% equity

opponent and ceegee hit about the same : we have like 40% equity

ceegee hits good and opponent hits bad : we have like 77% equity

About 25% of our range is in this first clump, the middle clump has about 40% of our range, and about 20% of our range is in the last clump (I know, I know, that doesn't add up... but some of the stuff is out in no-mans kinda middle ground area between the clumps).

Also around 12% of the time we end up with less than the required equity to continue on 6th street (that's somewhere around the middle of the first clump), but another 8% is really close so we might want to fold closer to around 20% of the time on 6th street naturally.

If you just ignore all the equity coming from the first clump (assuming we're going to fold that on the next street), we have about 34% equity in total for our range here, which I think makes for an easy continue, especially since I have not really thought about any implied odds for the good clump.

Great stuff, silverware. Thanks.

So since you are extending it out to the next street we must also reflect the fact that we must also call on 6th. So I believe we are getting (75+40)/40 or 2.875 to 1 effective meaning we need around 26%.

So 34% > 26% is an overlay, but that's without the impact of 7th street betting where I still think we have more reverse than implied odds.

Still I think it is what I originally thought, a slightly +EV calldown

Actually if we assume you are folding around 20% of 6th streets your effective is around 3.2 to 1 (24% equity)