Mohegan Sun (Uncasville, CT) - Page 105 - Venues & Communities -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

On Friday night were you wearing a NYG jersey - #10? At a table pretty much in the middle of the room close to the front? This would have been around 8pm. In the 3 or 4 seat?

Nope, I would never, ever wear an Eli Manning jersey :P.

I was wearing my grey Skynyrd sweatshirt.

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06-07-2010 , 11:18 AM

#2602

Lattimer

I is smart

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 15,463

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothPicker

Against 3 callers and no no one else holds an A it's only 52% chance to win
with A,A. Do you really like max possible advantage of 2% to shove?
And I am not a rock and I was perfectly funded for 5/10 NLH.
And I folded A,A preflop 1 time out of prolly more then 1000 times I had
pocket As pre in 5 years. And it was clearly shove with 3 callers or fold situation.

You're completely overlooking the fact that you would quadruple up if you win, not double up. You would need to be 25% for it to be neutral EV. But at 52%, it's +++++++++EV to do this.

Think about it. Let's round that 52% down to 50% for simplicity. Half the time, you'll lose 1 buy-in. Half the time, you'll win 3 buy-ins. How could you NOT do this??

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06-07-2010 , 11:53 AM

#2603

27offsuit

actions have consequences!

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 38,535

****ing math. HOW DOES IT WORK?!

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06-07-2010 , 11:58 AM

#2604

iDonkYoU

adept

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 833

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothPicker

2% advantage?

A 52% chance to quadruple up is more like a 110% advantage.

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06-07-2010 , 12:06 PM

#2605

rizasutton

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,274

BTW its def more like 60% prefolp. On the flop 70-80%. By the turn its 80-100%

52% is more accurate for a hand like 77 vs AK where 77 is the 52%.

In any case I'm never foldind aa in cash even against the whole table all in

Last edited by rizasutton; 06-07-2010 at 12:23 PM.

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06-07-2010 , 12:25 PM

#2606

Kenneth Bania

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 668

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothPicker

its actaully a lot more like 62% against 3 random hands. If your not getting it in with an edge like that and 3:1 on your money then i guess your looking after the wrong things.

Theres no way to justify folding AA in a non satty mtt.

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06-07-2010 , 12:26 PM

#2607

MJ88

veteran

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 2,994

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothPicker

Against 3 callers and no no one else holds an A it's only 52% chance to win with A,A. Do you really like max possible advantage of 2% to shove?
And I am not a rock and I was perfectly funded for 5/10 NLH......

You may not be a rock, but you appear to be mathematically challenged.
Let's see... Your equity is 52%, and you're only putting in 25% of the money...... Obvious fold?
Your "advantage" here ain't 2%, but >100% (of your bet), ie., your EV is more than twice your bet.
The fact that you would have lost the one time you cited is irrelevant.
Really, folding AA preflop is a cash game isn't ever right.....

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06-07-2010 , 12:49 PM

#2608

Sq Pa

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 9

Quote:

Originally Posted by IWearSportsJerseys

Man, how do you win $1400 at 1/2? I find it hard to win that much at 2/5, nevermind 1/2...people make regular donations?

I was the 7 seat on Friday, and it was a solid table, for sure...no idea how I walked away a winner given that I was dealt very little.

The only difference between Saturday and Friday is that Saturday dealt me hands that ended up being proverbial coolers--Friday was simply a case of being card-dead, save for a set that actually paid.

i was the guy in the 1 hole who didnt win a hand for the first 3 hours. i imagine you were a winner because of the 10 seat? and the 2 older guys who busted/re-bought a couple times in the 5 & 6, no?

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06-07-2010 , 12:56 PM

#2609

IWearSportsJerseys

banned

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,697

The worst part of Friday was the fact that despite the presence of table donors (seats 5, 6, and 10), I had to earn my cash against the better players of the table the entire night.

4 seat tried to bluff me in an absolutely dreadful spot, which got me quite I bit when I looked him up.

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06-07-2010 , 01:01 PM

#2610

Sq Pa

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 9

i left @ 430 and 10 was still there... he re-bought a couple of times. he stopped calling the floor for a while but as i left he was getting into it with someone who took your seat. i think your buddy in the 8 was still there so he was in the middle of it.

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06-07-2010 , 01:27 PM

#2611

jpsychlady

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,588

Does anyone know how the games are on Monday evenings? Thinking about heading down in a bit.

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06-07-2010 , 01:31 PM

#2612

unhcp

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 121

usually mostly regs but obv there are some fish like you!

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06-07-2010 , 01:49 PM

#2613

ToothPicker

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 186

Quote:

Originally Posted by MJ88

You may not be a rock, but you appear to be mathematically challenged.

Take it easy. And please support your "not challenged" opinion with correct
math for the hand next time. At the time I folded I was pretty sure that one of my opponents had A,A as well , which was absolutely correct.
Now what quadruple are you talking about?

To addition to, all of you completely ignoring the pot size to compare to
avg pot size you win/play with A,A. And it is one of the most common mistakes in applying math to NL. So what happens when you loose with A,A pot which is more then 5 times of the size of avg pot you play with a pocket A,A?

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06-07-2010 , 01:49 PM

#2614

jpsychlady

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,588

Quote:

Originally Posted by unhcp

usually mostly regs but obv there are some fish like you!

Hahaha?

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06-07-2010 , 01:55 PM

#2615

unhcp

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 121

haha yes, I would wait till after 5.

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06-07-2010 , 01:57 PM

#2616

rizasutton

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,274

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothPicker

Then you say damn variance. And say ill gladly do it again. Give me any hand where I'm 60%+ to win preflop and ill get it all in with them all day. Put the whole table all in and I'm still correct to call all in.

I'm surprised you say this after reading some of sklanskys books. In one of his books he repeatedly exersizes this thought.

Folding is not correct in cash games. Only in certain situations for tourneys where the payouts some what similiar to top end satellites given certain stack sizes etc.

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06-07-2010 , 02:02 PM

#2617

IWearSportsJerseys

banned

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,697

Quote:

Originally Posted by unhcp

usually mostly regs but obv there are some fish like you!

And I thought I picked bad spots to be sarcastic.

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06-07-2010 , 02:29 PM

#2618

Kenneth Bania

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 668

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothPicker

To addition to, all of you completely ignoring the pot size to compare to
avg pot size you win/play with A,A. And it is one of the most common mistakes in applying math to NL. So what happens when you loose with A,A pot which is more then 5 times of the size of avg pot you play with a pocket A,A?

wow this has to be a level or something. what makes u think avg pot size has anything to do with the situation. the size of the pot, the amount u have to put in the pot and the equity your hand has absolutely kills every argument u have for folding aces

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06-07-2010 , 02:35 PM

#2619

IWearSportsJerseys

banned

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,697

Quote:

Originally Posted by akagod

How often do you fold underfulls?

On a board with trips? Quite a bit.

On a twice-paired board? Quite a bit.

Almost never in other circumstances, especially on a flush/straight board.

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06-07-2010 , 02:37 PM

#2620

mrmossy84

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,761

LOLing on my train back to new london back from NYC, thanks toothpicker.

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06-07-2010 , 02:37 PM

#2621

Kenneth Bania

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 668

there is a limped pot u have a A3s and you flop a flush draw on a 2 8 T board. First player to act shoves and gets 3 callers all 4 have you covered?? Are you making this call??

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06-07-2010 , 02:39 PM

#2622

mrmossy84

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,761

Quote:

Originally Posted by IWearSportsJerseys

If anything, I regret not being more sociable, myself, despite my willingness to meet people in the room. Even though my posts likely do not reflect it, I doubt anyone gets more "locked in" to a game.

Lol kind of funny you said this cause I felt like a jerk for not talking more sat night. I really wanted my $ back so I kind of shut down talking and started rapping songs to myself, lol

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06-07-2010 , 02:39 PM

#2623

IWearSportsJerseys

banned

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,697

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kenneth Bania

there is a limped pot u have a A3s and you flop a flush draw on a 2 8 T board. First player to act shoves and gets 3 callers all 4 have you covered?? Are you making this call??

Every single day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

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06-07-2010 , 02:39 PM

#2624

Kenneth Bania

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 668

There is sometimes spots in MTT where a marginal +ev spot could be a fold but thats a different story. In cash games you should be putting it in in every +ev spot u can find. That is why these games are played by successful players with proper bankroll management.

p.s. AA preflop is never anywhere near a marginal +ev spot.

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06-07-2010 , 02:40 PM

#2625

IWearSportsJerseys

banned

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,697

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmossy84

Lol kind of funny you said this cause I felt like a jerk for not talking more sat night. I really wanted my $ back so I kind of shut down talking and started rapping songs to myself, lol

We were both stuck at that point, but you were treated to seeing just how snakebitten I was. At least you know that I take coolers well, though :P.

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