Doubt it hurts Live too bad. Live is in a much better location overall

Based on what?

Same guy who said that MDL would have no affect on Charlestown?

I play/know a pretty significant number of people at MDL who are from Northern VA and drive right past MGM on the way to MDL or Horseshoe. All things being equal, there is zero chance they are going to drive right by and play at MDL. That round trip is @ 2 hours in wasted playing time.

Obviously "all things being equal" covers a lot of ground. Parking, room size, games etc. But if I look at my favorite places to play in LV - they are all MGM properties that seem to take poker pretty seriously.

That being said, lets not kid ourselves, poker is not a massive money maker for the casino. I'd be happy if there were 35-40 poker tables but most likely I know its going to be closer to 30.

lol, no way it has that same affect.

obviously a better location for NoVa people

I think you'll be surprised how much people are interested in playing in a really nice resort with a really good selection of restaurants, shopping or other things for their spouses.

Or god forbid, play for more than a few hours in a row and stay over.

Just out of curiosity, why do you think MDL is so great that even people who live nearby in MD will continue to go there?

Having grown up in Oxon Hill, even graduating from the old oxon Hill HS, and with my familiarity with the area and still living within a quick 15 minute drive of MGM, there's no reason for me to travel to Live. Granted, a huge tournament series or guarantee every now and then will be worth it. But day to day, mgm is in a beautiful spot for me.
20,30, 40, 50 tables, I'll be there daily.

I'm sure this is true for some people. Just not that many.

I feel MDL's poker room, and MDL casino as a whole, will feel significant reductions to traffic once MGM is up and running. This is assuming MGM knows what it is doing and offers a good facility.

I can't believe people are challenging the strong evidence that banana man has brought to this thread.

I offer no prediction other than it will have an effect. How much? idk

Most of the 8 million+ residents of the State of Virginia might disagree with you, not to mention another 2 million+ North Carolinians in easy range of a weekend drive.

Next to a mall vs the National Harbor area? Matter of opinion.

Ok that definitely made me chuckle...

Heard the manager will be Johnny Grooms from Beau Rivage.

This would be my guess as well, I wan thinking of going down for their tourney series, and looked in the MTTc thread for more info and Mr. Grooms posted that he was leaving to take a big opportunity up north...more from the rumor front, also heard that it will be around 25-30 tables....
I know 2/2 PLO will be able to support a game at MGM based on how many ppl at MDL are from DC/ Nova

Well, let's see. Right now at 2pm on a Wednesday Live has more tables running than any casino in the country. Live has 52 tables which is more than MGM's projected spread. Live is easier to access for at least 80% of Maryland's population.

Do you have anything worthwhile to contribute?

Commerce has more tables running rn. How do you know MGM's projected spread?

He's a wizard who needs to merely say something to make it reality.

@banana man, I appreciate you finally posting something we can discuss in your most recent post instead of just pretending that your opinions are fact. I'll address your post fully once I'm in front of a computer.

Above is the entire conversation that led us to this point.

Banana man asserts that MGM opening will not hurt Live "too bad" and that "Live is in a much better location overall."

Maryland Live (MDL) is about outside of Baltimore, about 45 minutes to downtown DC and about 20 minutes to downtown Baltimore (not taking into consideration traffic. MDL offers as amenities an outlet mall which is connected to it.

MGM National Harbor (MGMNH) will be about 30 minutes from downtown DC (not taking into consideration traffic). MGMNH offers as amenities luxury shopping, fine dining, a waterfront resort, and a convention center 5 minutes away, not to mention fine dining onsite.

I don't see how MDL is a "much better location overall," especially given the traffic that will come to MGMNH from visitors to DC and convention attendees both at MGMNH and National Harbor. Additionally, getting to MDL via public transit is a challenge while getting to MGMNH will be a breeze in comparison.

As such, I think that Banana man's assertion that MDL is in a much better location is wrong.

This post is a bit silly because it's one red herring after the other.

First, the number of tables MDL has running right now has nothing to do with its location compared to a casino that hasn't opened yet. Second, Live being easier to access for "80% of Maryland's population" is (1) part of the 90% of all statistics that are made up and (2) another red herring because you're insinuating that only Marylanders will be playing at these casinos. That's of course not the case.

Horseshoe is closer than Live for a large chunk of Maryland's population and yet they don't have a proportional number of games running. It isn't much further (and often faster to get to) from NOVA to Hanover than to Charles Town. Proximity is one factor, but except when the difference in distance is large, it does not seem to be the sole driving factor.

This doesn't mean that Live will be a ghost town when mgm opens. There is a lot that can be done to retain customers, and management will no doubt do their best. The fact is that many players, who have a disproportionate amount of money, will find MGM at least as convenient to get to. That will make some difference. The amount obviously remains to be seen.

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Ctown and Shoe don't appear to value poker and have it only to have a 'complete' casino. Horseshoe has a room manager known for tournaments and they run a lot of them, but the cash games seem to be ignored there, so its to me not a good comparison. I drive further to play at Live most of the time because its clearly a better experience even though C'town is half the drive.

MGM on the other hand seems to really value poker as a core part of the casino and they work to drive other revenue off from it - food, massages, pushing harder to get people out on the other table games. I expect they will comp with hotels in Vegas to drive revenue that way as well. They also said they would push for a lot of out of town traffic and use the hotel plus National Harbor as a lure.

I'm really expecting that whether its 30 tables or 40, a lot of the MGM business will not be taken from Live, but will be people who wouldn't be in a casino in this area if MGM wasn't there. For me, the drive at 3PM on a weekday is 2 hours to Live and 30-45 minutes to MGM, so I will likely play more than I do now. So, Live will lose some of my business but some of my MGM time will be time I wouldn't have been playing at all. Also, MGM will by necessity cater to a higher end customer, also getting business that is not necessarily at Live today. I expect the food will be nicer but pricier, there will not be a mall with a food court attached, and the games that are spread will start at higher buy ins. I'm expecting 1-3 Holdem instead of 1-2, a higher max for 2-5, and less enthusiasm for low stakes limit. It will be a bit different product in a bit different location with the possibility of increasing the market, not just taking from neighboring casinos. I do expect MGM to take noticeable share from MGM for slots, but the rest of the experience will be different enough that its not a zero sum game.

It seems early for them to project an exact date, but they have been estimating milestones. They said when they will start a dealer school (March), and when they will start installing the slots (May). These seem to indicate a schedule pointing roughly to August/Sept. A few months back they said they were slightly ahead of schedule with the basic construction. Maybe the lack of updates just means they slipped back to roughly on schedule.

Rapini, you are correct. The latest news I just saw says the dealer school now starts in May, and they are looking at a '4th quarter' opening. This very much sounds like a small schedule slip to me. I'm changing my guestimate to Nov. 1 until I hear something more concrete.

Johnny Grooms looks like the guy. Not only did he say he is moving to a big opportunity 'up north', but he now says he will leave the Rivage at the end of January which aligns timing wise. Hopefully when that move happens he will be able to say for sure where he is going and will be able to provide more information and be able to interact here on details of the room if he is indeed coming to National Harbor.

Source?

Since this appears to be living up to its name as the "Hype" thread (and isn't hype generally opinion) I'm going to offer mine as a MD-resident amateur that lives 10 minutes from live:

Live will be fine. Mgmt has done things right, and most games will still be available, especially the 1/2 and 4/8 donk-fests.

NoVA doesn't only feed players to MDL currently, it is feeding players from some of the richest counties in the nation. Therefore, perhaps the bigger danger is that many of the lucrative mid-stakes games do shift due to the convenience factor for these NoVA residents. The "pros*" that happen to have shifted down from AC/Philly will need to decide if they'll follow the money further south.

I enjoy stabbing at PLO occasionally, and that's the game that has me most worried - totally my opinion, but I think a lot of that money travels up I-95 to get to MDL.

*Just to be clear, I am purely speculating on the existence of "pros" in these games - but when the same faces are there every single time I play, despite only playing a few times a month at varying times/days... let's just say regs.

I live in nova. Me and my wife play poker. I am almost certain that my wife will push toward MGM over live/bmore. based mostly off a fancy ferris wheel and decent bars. And guess what? I'll be happy that shes down to go play and will proly play where she wants(with in reason). Sometime you have to view things from a non-player point of view.....