$400-500 a month additional cost for a regular? Can this be true? I wish rake was more transparent, because when it comes to cash game rake, my eyes glaze over and I find it hard to calculate how much I pay per hour.

I just did some back of the envelope calculation and the extra $1 costs me around $3 per hour. It could be higher (more probably) or it could be lower (less probably).

Some of that you do get back by winning the prize. But it's impossible to calculate the EV. In all probability it's less than $3 per hour because other games than NL give a better chance of winning the promo. Then again, those games only represent a small fraction of the NL games running, so the redistribution effect shouldn't be as strong.

Moreover, I get to play a higher number of hours than the average ML live customer, so that also gives me a better chance to win back the money I paid in as opposed to the chances I would have, had I bust out after a few hours.

Let me think of it another way. If all games in the casino were NL, then by the law of big numbers, if I played enough, I would get back all the promotional money I paid in.

The issue is things like the bad beat jackpot which is high variance and I cannot reasonably expect to get paid from unless I get really lucky. So I guess my request from Mike is to put the extra dollar to all those promos like high hand and flopped hands that have a much higher probability of getting hit. Having payouts that don't come with bureaucratic paper forms would also be a major plus.

Beyond that, let's say that because of the redistribution effect that benefits Non-NL games, the EV of those prizes is $1.5-2 per hour, less than what I pay. Does the increase in traffic make up for it? Again, I will say probably.

I could be wrong in all of this though. Perhaps someone else can chime in with a more robust analysis.

At some point, this marketing expense logic fails. If they raise it to $4 and offer promos that pack the room 24/7...is that ok?

This escalating arms race with promos is just bad. Bad for the regulars as they pay the most into it. The casual player won't care as they don't notice the money taken from each pot. This is also bad for the room and everyone playing, as a packed room from promo offerings will prevent management from addressing the room's failures and shortcomings. Why try to improve the cashier cage when the room is packed? Why address dealers who still constantly socialize with players and other dealers while at the table, slowing the games down, if the room is packed? Big chips to be obviously visible in NL -- this is a fundamental rule in NL poker. And that hasn't been addressed?

The track we're on -- Live will be the busiest, most profitable, most terribly-run poker room.

A quick reminder: any discussion at all regarding tipping has to go in the tipping containment thread in the main LCP forum. If you have questions or comments, please PM me or post in the Moderation Discussion Thread. Thanks.

what I don't understand is why increase the drop to $2?
md live has twice the tables of the Shoe. and more of those tables are used during non-peak times.

ie: on a normal weeknight, Live might have 35tables and the Shoe might have 15.

so Live was already taking in more promo $ than the shoe, even with the shoe's $2 jackpot drop.
I wish Mike would explain why he increased it to $2...

Bigger, better poker promos?
when will it start?

I don't view sept's promo as better than aug's high hand.
will it cost more? probably since it's a longer time frame than the high hand promo.
but they can save on the costs by not running it on the weekends.

One advantage I see for Flop Bonus over High High is that High Hand is only paid once for the time limit. Flop bonus there is a chance that it could be hit a few times.

It will definitely relieve the players whose high hands gets crushed in the last few seconds of the clock.

The promos are bigger and better, but, the pomotional amounts are cut in half. Sad to see that. In order to receive the same bonus as before you need to invest 20-39 hours. May be that's the point Mike is starting this new format.

As i said before I play 5-15 hours per week. So, it won't be of much help for me versus a grinder with 60+ hours. It would be nice if it can remain the same as before for less than 20 and increase from there 1.5, 2.5 and 4 for the higher hours.

Time games > raked games......then you don't have to worry about the promo's.

FWIW, I agree with this post 100%.

I believe we get dealt around 40 hands per hour. At 2/5, practically every single pot is over $30. At 1/2, it takes just a couple of limpers, a raise, and a call to reach that amount.

So think of how many hands you win per hour that have $30 or more in the middle. If you're really tight maybe it's just 2 or 3 on average. If you're loose and splashy, it's probably 5 or more. Multiply that number by the number of hours played in a month and there's your answer. I think $400-500/month could be a very conservative estimate if you grind a lot of hours.

Also think about the extra dollar being taken off the table for everyone else too. This means that on all-ins, you're winning less as well because all stacks are a bit shallower since more is being removed from play every hand and put down the well. Stack sizes on the table certainly impact hourly. If you're a skilled player, the deeper the better.

If I were Mike I'd have a 12-18 month schedule of promos drawn up right now.

The next 6 months would be "pretty good / so-so" promos.

Starting around right before the SuperBowl I'd have some "holy crap" type of promos.

Then around June of next year or so - just when they are putting the finishing touches on MGM Natl Harbor - I'd start dropping my "No f'n way" promos.

I'm too lazy to calculate how much promo money they could save by then. But lets assume it would be a lot.

But as I've said before, Mike's job isnt to make 2+2'ers happy. Mike's job is to pack the room during hours when it isnt normally packed. And from that standpoint he seems to be doing a damn good job.

I'm not happy about it in the least but again, making me happy is not his job.

FWIW, I agree with this post 100%.

[quote name="OvertlySexual" post=47942447]$400-500 a month additional cost for a regular? Can this be true? I wish rake was more transparent, because when it comes to cash game rake, my eyes glaze over and I find it hard to calculate how much I pay per hour.[/QUOTE]

I believe we get dealt around 40 hands per hour. At 2/5, practically every single pot is over $30. At 1/2, it takes just a couple of limpers, a raise, and a call to reach that amount.

So think of how many hands you win per hour that have $30 or more in the middle. If you're really tight maybe it's just 2 or 3 on average. If you're loose and splashy, it's probably 5 or more. Multiply that number by the number of hours played in a month and there's your answer. I think $400-500/month could be a very conservative estimate if you grind a lot of hours.

[/QUOTE]

I'm a serious rec player that plays as a way to generate a little extra income at something i enjoy doing. So far this year i have logged a total of 677 hours, 504 of them at MDL in bbj drop NL games.

There is very little chance the extra dollar will get me involved with more easy money at my tables that will increase my win rate enough to offset the increased drop. Games are already great most of the time.

I estimate this one exrta buck will cost me about 280 per month. Unfortunately more likely it will cost MDL dealers some significant fraction of this amount per month.

Heck, all the recent high hand promotion did was force me to play in competitor rooms. Due to my day job, i can't arrive at MDL until mid evening and i had zero interest in waiting a long time for a seat. Therefore the recent $1k every 20 minutes promotion drove me away.

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The only +EV for a BBJ is the IRS.

Quick question. The PPC main event that MDLive is running flights for starting tomorrow. The flyers say 200k guaranteed, but in one flyer I saw that the top 8 finishers get a 5k Aruba package? So they're taking this out of the payout structure or is it coming out of the top of the pool. Is the person finishing 8th getting more of a cash payout than the person finishing 9th AND on top of that a package too, or is that count as part of the over- all payout to the position? I just would like to understand the payout structure on this.

Thx,
Shju2

The flier in the room says 20% of the prize pool will be used to pay for travel/entry for Aruba, up to a max of 8 5k packages

I don't think a 5 + 2 + 1 ( rake, bbj, tip) drop is sustainable. Even at 25 hands per hour this will take $200 off of the table. With 10 players, you're paying $20/hr to play generally low stakes games.

I think you will see more hit-n-run players as folks realize this.

Or more PLO / O8 players.

Recreational players would not careless about the 5 + 2 + 1 since most of them just show up and play their games and call it the day. The one who really cares are players who camp out at LIVE day and night. I think it's sustainable since the majority of their target players are recreational players who tend to show up after work and put in a few hours or only play on the weekend.

Lets say if they hit and run and assume they go play PLO. You need a much bigger bankroll to play PLO and PLO is a very expensive game if you want to see a flop even with a 2/2 game. There are a lot of 2 to 3k preflop in 2/2 and we had a 4 way 30K pot at the 5/5 last week after the flop. Unlike NL games, PLO players always want to see a flop regardless of the preflop raise. So you just can't hit and run and go play PLO.

im not saying it is sustainable either.

As a regular player that plays about 20 - 30 hours a week I actually don't mind the $2 rake increase. It all gets given back to the players and gives bad players a reason to try and gamble.

IF there was no promotion people wouldn't play trash like 42s to try and catch that miracle straight flush. I'm happy as long as we keep the room full. And it looks like you are.

Let the donks have their lottery - i'll play it too. From promotions this year i've made about $1600. I've won 4 high hands for $300 a pop - I was at the table with 2 royal flushs for $100 each and I was at the flop promo for 4 quads for $50 each.


I've tipped the dealers probably $200 from those promotions so i'm up $1400 from just promotions. Now who knows how much i've been raked but in the long run it pretty much evens out if you play long enough and it has bad players gambling which is awesome.


As for the flop promo - it's better than high hands cuz the whole table wins and it's more exciting. I think the high hand promo should be similar - where if 1 person at your table wins - the other players win $50 too. So you could do like $500 high hands - and every one else wins $50. That way no one has to fill out those stupid W2 forms.


I was opposed to it at first - but now I don't mind the lottery increase. And it lets the room go wild with promos.


Also - when a donkey wins big - he's going to remember it and keep coming back to chase that win. If he loses all the time - which they normally do they will stop playing. Let them win big once in a while from a high hand. It's actually really good for the game in the long run.

Ever notice how many times some of the looser players had to reload when it was 5 + 1 + 1? To your point that will only increase with the extra dollar.

The end-of-poker hand wringing itt is insane. So many successful rooms use 5+2 or higher.

Compare the area options today to over two years ago. And mgm is on the way.

Woe is us.

I'm going to do some rough math to help you understand just how much you have paid into the jackpot fund and how much extra you would have paid so far if this $2 had been in effect since the beginning.

I'll use your 30 hrs/week number and say you play 40 weeks/year which may be a conservative estimate based on how much you actually play.

If you are playing 2/5nl we'll say you're winning 3 hands per hour with a pot bigger than $30. Now you probably actually win more than that, but again let's be conservative. So we'll say you win 90 hands each week that will be taxed the second jackpot dollar.

The poker room has been open for two years. 40 weeks times two years is 80 weeks. 80 weeks times 90 extra jackpot dollars equals $7,200.

So had this extra dollar been taken out over the past two years you would have paid an additional $7,200 into the promo fund. You've received $1,600 back. This is not good for regular players.

You can also calculate how much you've already paid into it just from the one dollar that gets taken out of $10+ pots. I can assure you that with your volume that number will be way greater than $1,600.

Unfortunately it's unlikely that MDL will change this back so we'll just have to wait until Harbor opens and move down there. Or play at Horseshoe as they now have a much better rake with only a 5% drop + $2 promo.

That being said, the new $600 2/5 cap is much appreciated. Thanks for making that change, Mike.

If they're going to take the extra dollar, they should at least go out of their way to make sure the money is distributed to more players in smaller amounts. When a 1/2 or 2/5 player wins $500, that's likely to go right back into the poker economy. When they win $5K or more, there's a much higher chance they pull that money out of the poker economy at least in part. They might take a $2K trip and put $3K in their bankroll.

The bigger the jackpots, the worse it is. Keeping the majority of the payouts between $500 and $2500 would go a long way toward keeping the most players happy.

I don't really mean this as a shot at Live in particular, because the same could be posted in any venue thread on here - it just happens to be the discussion in this thread at the moment.

Really? Which rooms use higher than 5+2? I'm actually curious.

Playground poker club has a 10%/$8 rake, but they're also poker only, all food/drinks are free, AND they have a BBJ which, as of last week when I was there was over $500k for Quad 5s or better beaten.

You fail to take into account that the high hand promo has not been in effect for all two years. Hence, he would have won more than $1600.