You're both over-thinking things a ton. It isn't about tourists or tournaments. Keep it simple - look at geography and think about traffic. When MGM opens at National Harbor it is going to be the primary poker room for players in Virginia. Fairfax County has 1.2mm people - all of whom will have an easier time getting to MGM than MDL or Horseshoe. Same goes for Arlington and Alexandria - MGM will be significantly more convenient. For the southern half of PG county, MGM will be closer than MDL.

For DC residents, MGM will be closer. Perhaps more importantly, it will be MUCH more easily accessible by public transportation. Metro has a bus line (NH1 & NH3) that serves National Harbor, running between the Branch Ave Metro and Southern Ave Metro stops on the Green line. There's already a hotel shuttle from King Street Metro as well - I'd bet that the Casino will run a shuttle to King Street as well. Compared to taking Metro to Union Station, then MARC to BWI, then a bus to MDL, MGM is going to be way easier to get to.

Don't forget that MDL is closer to Baltimore than it is to DC. MGM and MDL will be about 33 miles apart. MDL and the Horseshoe will be more like 13 miles apart. MGM will carve out its territory fairly easily. MDL and the Horseshoe will be fighting over the Baltimore and northern PG area.

As long as the MGM runs a halfway decent poker room, I'm probably not going back to MDL very often. As a Virginia resident, there's just no way that I'm going to drive an extra 30+ miles in heavy traffic to get to MDL. MGM is going to be right off the highway as soon as you cross the Wilson Bridge.

The good news for MDL (and really all of us) is that MGM's location and convenience to VA and DC is going to grow the poker market. The pie will get larger. Living in Fairfax, I can see myself spontaneously driving 20-30 minutes after work to go play cards on a weeknight. That doesn't happen with MDL, because if I cannot get up there by 3 pm, I'm just not interested in fighting traffic on 295. There are lots of people who will play more often when there's a poker room they can hit after work with fairly minimal hassle. It may be that having 2 more local rooms means that MDL has consistently short waits - so that may be a bonus for its core players.

MGM will not kill MDL, but its location gives it a strong leg up to be the go-to room for much of the VA/DC portion of the metro area. Where the pros and high-stakes regulars choose to play remains to be seen.

Yes. With 4 options Ct, MDL, Balt, Harbor it will mostly come down to location. Harbor will be too far for the routine trip out to play for me; MDL will always be the first choice unless there is some special event or I just want to change it up once in a while.

Not sure why we are speculating so much now though....Harbor is at least 3 years away from opening.

Its so awesome that we can even have this debate, not to be whatever about it but think about how lucky we are. For the first ten + years that I lived in NoVa my options were some shaddddy games in random basements or greek "social clubs" or other not awesome places. Then CT opened and it was crazy that poker was 90 minutes away instead of 3.5 hours to AC.

Then MDL opened up and all things considered Mike is doing a fantastic job. Yeah I complain about the crappy waitress situation but its poker thats @ 45 minutes away for me - so half the distance of CT. But MGM will be half that still.

Long, long way away and plenty of opportunity for the MD or PG Cty govt to muck things up. So till then, I will enjoy MDL as much as I can.

Dude... I'd love to see where you got that stat. I think you might be referring to the fact that MD has the most millionaires per capita. That means nothing though.

Per capita, #1
Total: roughly #10, about tied with Michigan and just ahead of Georgia.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....

1) How's MGM going to be the "primary poker room" if let say the room only has 25 tables just like the Horseshoe being build in Baltimore now?

2) How many regular pros do you see now playing "high stakes" at MDLIVE? I play at MDLive every week and I have yet to run into any "pros" except "Michael Phelps" and he was at my 2/5 table just last month. What's consider "high stakes"? 5/10? 5/5 PLO? I Play these games here now and then and these are not "high stakes". The 10/25 and 10/10 PLO run mostly on the weekend and these don't consider high stakes either.

3) Are you willing to carry large sum of cash riding the metro bus "running between the Branch Ave Metro and Southern Ave Metro stops"? I don't think so.

4) Remember the poker room at the Revel ($2.4 billion)? It lasted less than a year and folded (The poker room that is).

You can only hope MGM "may" include a poker room in their plan but if is not economically feasible, there ain't going be no poker room. In other words, they will not build a poker room if they think they can't generate a lot of profits.

This.

Which is exactly why I believe ML ends up with only the wealthy Howard County residents. These people will be their long-term customer base and they already know that.

Anyone with foresight should be able to see that ML will eventually be the least busy of the three major casinos.

From purely a tournament-player's perspective, who in their right mind would voluntarily choose to sit in the mess that is 295, just to go play in overpriced and more luck-based tournament structures?

MGM will pull in DC, Northern VA, and everyone from the south. Horseshoe will pull in Baltimore and those up north who currently make the trek up to DP for the lower cost and better tailored tournaments.

ML just won't be the first choice for anyone but those who reside within the local vicinity.

Anyone who can't see this is delusional IMO.

Serious cash players will play wherever the action is best.

Serious tournament players will play wherever the structures are best.

Tourists will play wherever it is most convenient.

I think it is waaaay too early to say with any confidence which venues will satisfy the above 3 bullets.

Everybody is assuming MGM will include a monster 100 table poker room in their plan to accommodate the low stake tournies with great structures. That just being naive and wishful thinking. They will use every space in the casino to rack in the most profitable games which are slots and table games. Poker generate the least revenue in any casino and the overhead cost is a lot more because the customer base is not always as predictable as to slot players. Furthermore, they're not going to build a $ 2 billion casino and host a low stake $ 100 buy-in tourney and make $ 30 fee so you guys can sit and grind for days and be happy even if you got sent to the rail early.

As you said, if you want to play the afforadable low stake tournies "trek up to DP for the lower cost tournaments' since the cost of living is lower in DE and less millionairs than in Maryland.

MDlive priced their buy-in higher in the tourney it is due to the high demand for the cash games and lack of available tables. I think they'll prefer running the cash games then hosting any tourney because they can make more in the cash games. All you have to look is at the Bravo daily game report and they run twice as many tables then the Borgata and max out on every weekend since the opening day. I am sure if they don't run the weekday tourney, the room will be just pack like any weekend.

Rarely anybody lives around here go to the Borgata anymore with the exception of the $ 2 million tourney. Although you think is cheap for the $ 500+30 buy-in for the $ 2 M prize as compared to the MDlive $ 600 buy-in with only 40K guranteed. However, this week's $ 2 M prize draws 4,800 + entries and what are the chances of you making to the final table when competing with such a large field? "luck based" perhaps? Many did 3 to 4 re-buys and still didn't make it to the cash.

Bottom line, it's all about demand and supply.

See you all later today at Live.

Yes, I mean per capita and no, it doesn't mean nothing. Maryland has the 5th highest population density in the country.

606.2 inhabitants per square mile (234.1 /km2)

And the 19th highest population in the country.

And neighbors Virginia which is higher in population but lower in density.

And borders the nation's capital.

Result? Shiploads of money holders pass through or near Maryland.

Re Geography - Harbor will be easier for VA yes. But what about Montgomery County? Rockville, Gaithersbug, Bethesda - getting to National Harbor is not such a pleasant prospect. Rockville to National Harbor is 37 mins and goes thru the mixing bowl. Rockville to MDL is 41 minutes and on the ICC (with tolls). I call that a toss up decided by the better room.

Columbia, Laurel, pretty much anything along 95 north of 495? MDL, clear favorite.

But that all said - I still think there's going to be more than enough to go around.

I agree with some of what you say, but I think Live will ultimately be the second busiest room. Unless you meant it purely in an overall casino sense (total gaming, not just poker), in which case might be right. But your post seemed to indicate you meant the poker rooms in particular, since you addressed tournaments after making your statement that you expect Live to be the least busy room.

Furthermore, I don't know why you base your predictions primarily on tournament players. Cash games will have a huge impact on room traffic.

I think Horseshoe will have an uphill battle to be anything but the least busiest room once National Harbor opens. They sealed their fate by setting their sights lower than they could have with a 30-table room.

The stigma that Baltimore and the harbor area is dangerous is something that will hurt the Horseshoe. I think it's overblown, but it's a very real perception. Most players that I've talked to are genuinely concerned for their safety, and think that the Horseshoe will be much more dangerous place to park/get around at than MD Live.

I agree that it's overblown. The building is a huge garage and you know it's going to have full security coverage. The casino will be redonkulously easy to get to from 95 and 295 as well, so its not like you're navigating thru the bad parts of town to get there. And you know all the local hotels are going to have shuttle busses to take the tourists to the casino, so that'll be safe enough.

I am going to chime in here as one in the minority. I’m 61 years old, retired and have been playing some form of poker for over 40 years. Like many of you, I made the trip to Atlantic City from the DC suburbs and really appreciated the shorter trip to Delaware Park when their poker room opened. I prefer lower limit Holdem and low buy in tournaments which is why I am in the minority. However, even though I’m in the minority, there are a lot of us out there who don’t want to spend more than $100-$200 in a poker session. I also like the variety of tournaments that Delaware Park has been offering on Saturdays such as HORSE and Crazy Pineapple. When the new casinos open in National Harbor and Baltimore, there will be more poker tables available for all players in the region. Hopefully, one of the casinos will take advantage of the market for lower limit games and lower buy-in tournaments. I know it’s not as profitable as slots, table games and no-limit cash games, but there are a lot of poker players looking for these options.

While not a variety - you might look to Perryville. They do offer weekend low buy in tournaments and its closer than DP.

He openly admits to his bias earlier in the thread: he's a low-stakes tournament-only player, so that's the only thing he cares about. I think what he has failed to realize is that low-stakes tournaments do not make the same level of profit for the room as cash games do, and no amount of pretending that MDL would manage to keep the vast majority of market share based on offering low-stakes tournaments when faced with more competition (Bmore 'Shoe & MGM Nat'l Harbor) is going to change that.

Why you assume that I can't see what is OBVIOUS is beyond me.

My role is to represent the needs of tournament players like myself, and that is all. That's what I'll continue to do.

So then you're saying that you understand:

(1) poker rooms make more money from cash games than from low-stakes tournaments; and
(2) MDL is near capacity, at capacity, or overloaded (full w/ wait lists) without offering low-stakes tournaments;

and yet you still think it's a good idea to waste everyone's time complaining about the lack of low-stakes tournaments at MDL instead of taking your business elsewhere? That's inconsiderate. You're also doing the other tournament players you claim to represent a disservice because people will start thinking that they're as illogical as you are.

First off, You and your dumbed down assumptions have been nothing but insulting. I don't care what you think, AT ALL. Ok Rapini? Do you get that? Can you understand this? Do you realize that I don't care what you think? Is this within the grasp of your understanding? You're not the god of MD poker although you do seem to represent the best interest of ML and their profit margin, congrats on that.

Second, I'm not complaining but stating facts. Third, it's not so much the buy-in price that makes the tournaments undesirable in comparison to everywhere else, it's the structures. If you had even the slightest "in" with the actual tournament scene in the DC/MD/VA area, you would know that this is the main concern with ML. I play tournaments (of all buy-in variants) pretty much daily throughout the region and I can tell you that I'm representing the prevailing sentiments.

My thoughts on low buy-in tournaments. Tournaments have a scaled administration fee correlated to its buy-in. $85+$15 = $100 or $500+$60=$560 and so forth. The admin fee pays for the service and dealers. So the structures must be designed accordingly....less minutes or chips per level for low-buys and more (including multi-days) for high buy-ins. You cannot have a low buy-in tournament with large chip stacks and long levels....unless you increase the administration fee to cover the extra expenses. The only way to do that is make it a $85+$60=$145 buy-in with a similar structure as the $560, but then people would complain the prize pool to buy-in ratio (e.g, return on equity) sucks and no one would play.

That is why a great low buy-in structure is near impossible to offer, unless you were desperate to drum up activity in the room....so for rollover cash games.

That being said...not all tournaments are created equal so it is good to determine which structure provides the better values, within your price point. I actually think MDL does an outstanding job of spreading a variety of cash games and tournaments.

I'm going to repeat - if you want low buy in tournaments, go to Perryville.

I am not ready (from experience!) to play in MD Live's tournaments, but Perryville had a nice little 40 player $50 tourney yesterday and they also offer a $35 on Sat morn and Sun afternoon which apparently gets around 100 people. It's not necessarily run with quite the quality of MD Live but what do you want for $35-$50.

When MD Live has even a relatively inexpensive tourney for them on weeknights they still have waitlists to get in. Why on earth would they ever go cheaper?

Finally - please stop with the arguments from authority claiming to represent prevailing sentiments. You don't represent me, and until you show up with some actual proof of that claim, it's BS.

Perryville? Apparently 100 people? And you can point me to proof of this where?

The people I talk with says Perryville tournament action is dead.

Again though, I'm pressing for skill-based structures and not necessarily the smallest buy-in tournaments I can find.

The DP MLK day $120 buy-in with 30,000 starting chips and 25-minute levels and a $10,000 guarantee fits the bill pretty well. From what I'm hearing (I clearly run in a different crowd than you EvilGreebo), that's where everyone is going to be. Maryland is offering an expensive $600 tournament that same day which offers much less value for the money. Standard.

The only proof I can offer is the hearsay testimony of players who were there while I was there yesterday. The $50 afternoon tourney had 41 people, which wasn't obviously big, but it wasn't dead, and the people who were there said the $35 had more action and numbers around 100 were what I remember. 89 is sticking in my head - so possibly people over estimated.

That's great that you don't care what I think, but that doesn't change the fact that you're wasting keystrokes arguing for something that wouldn't make business sense for MDL. You apparently think it should be run as some sort of charity for tournament players.

Congrats on playing tournaments every night of the week throughout the region. You'd think that would make you complain less about structures at a casino. I guess that would be too logical though.

This post makes sense, so Coy_Roy undoubtedly will quote half of a sentence from it, dismiss it out of hand, and complain some more.

The bolded in particular is perfectly said. Typically rooms use tournaments to drive cash game demand. If the demand is there already, there's no need for tournaments.

Thanks for the info on Perryville and other comments. I think I'll be one of many Maryland poker players by-passing the $600 buy in tournament at Maryland live to play at the $120 buy in tourney at DP.