Quote:
Originally Posted by FWWM
Umm, no, there are absolutely games running that are unbeatable due to a combination of rake and lack of abysmal players and actually some of the Macau games were or are good candidates for that. But unbeatable games prolly exist in many places around the globe. But in live poker you have all kinds of phenomena, e.g. it's easily possible to just run good for many thousand hands and think you are much better than you are, or that the game is much better than it is. This has been shown by Monte-Carlo simulations long ago. Also, you always have peeps who just feel the need to gamble, most casino games are unbeatable and you still have peeps playing. That does not necessarily mean that they are bad players. Actually I had this exact conversation here in HK with several players. They understand the game well enough to suspect the games are unbeatable, but they are still going some weekends or whatever, cos gambol. Obv almost all of these, like myself also, have other sources of income.
You have peeps who know basic strategy in BJ and know it is unbeatable without card counting and still playing in a setup where card counting is not possible. Ofc poker is more complex and the way the games are, there are probably peeps who are good enough to beat the games on every level. But prolly, there are way more players who might be good players, but just ran over EV a while/delusional. Like most peeps overestimate themselves in many areas they also overestimate themselves in their poker strength or beatability of the games.
With the tourneys 100% agreed, would be great for the ecosystem, but you have the issue with the table limits, widely discussed here ITT. Tables are limited, that framework was just renewed not too long ago, and apparently the 1000th baccarat/BJ table makes more money than poker. And the Macau govt is not interested in more tables/casinos/gamble, actually the directives/orders from Beijing are to diversify the economy, which might or might not happen, but that's where they want to go anyway...
Very solid answer. There will always be a steady supply of delusional people in the world for their own personal reasons. Some will be biased in overestimating their skill, some in other areas, for some it's just an experience trying to replicate Doyle Brunson and Amarillo Slim with their buddies. Tournaments indeed always made the games better temporarily, primarily at night when there's less competition for the table seats. But ultimately won't change anything as there're still 100 player waiting lists as the other person described.
In terms of HK, most games are not unbeatable because of common factors that can affect the quality but purely because of RFID and rigging the deck, people been cheating that way for years. That's why every mediocre fish I knew that was losing in Macau, been starting their "own" games since 2012+. The competition for cheating got so intense that I've seen twice such games get raided by some hired gangs, and several stories of same things happening from people I know. During that period people who spent hours in Macau losing money, somehow magically started winning overnight. Even though the fields were on average more competent in some cases.
Interesting news abt WPT, will have to play few events for sure.
Last edited by Nordling89; 05-08-2024 at 09:32 PM.