Hey guys, been enjoying reading up on stuff as usual! Even though it's mostly the same, Jose (Whom I never had the pleasure of meeting) winning $1k in cash or getting screwed on live leader boards, everyone saying you need to show up 15 minutes earlier than the previous week to get a seat in Omaha (I still remember when that game was upstairs at MCC), it's a great way to stay in touch around the country! I'll be putting up a small package, perhaps even just for the $1500 PLO8 for the WSOP pretty soon. Gonna be standard markup, and selling around 65% of my action. PM or post in here if interested. In a related note, who all is heading down for the WSOP this year?

John

Put villain on a draw, so I bet small on the river thinking they would fold, but I guess they called just to see or with a lower pair. Top card was an ace and I was pretty sure this villain wouldn't be limp calling pre with an ace.

Where is it at?

There are 2-3 slightly better tournament series going on the month after this Grand challenge thing. I think most in Michigan are going to be flying out for that month.

MGM Grand in Vegas, April thru first of May. Looks like some nice events, but its the month before WSOP, Venetian, and a few other series in May-July

Ya, I was the fish in seat 7. How did u end up? I might be there this afternoon. Anyone else going to Greektown today?

I agree that only the top 10% of $1-2 villains are bluff-raising blocking bets, so bet/fold is fine. I suppose you're arguing that a lot of them aren't bluffing missed draws, so checking to induce < small vbet, which makes sense. What % are actually bluffing if checked to here?

i'm headed there over memorial day weekend (5/26-5/31) to probably play in the first $1.5k nlhe event. i'd also like to go back towards the end of june to grind cash/sats but that'll depend on how well i run over the next month or so

In this specific hand I was in position.

Bluffing percentage on the river is totally board dependent and of course villain dependent. In general, against standard passives, provided I raised pre flop, I am bluffing maybe 10% of the time when high cards and scare cards hit (again, depending on what range I have them on). I am not bluffing at 1/2 (beyond continuation bets) very often at all.

Up $80 but ran pretty cold.

Yeah, of course, i just meant a ballpark estimate of what % of 1-2 opponents even consider bluffing a missed draw ever. Obviously propensity to bluff varies based on a million other factors (your image, general psychology, previous street action, etc.).

And i totally whiffed on position, since obviously you're going to be in this situation IP a lot more often.

I'm pretty sure AKQJ10 is saying that betting thin for value is fairly safe here, as most villains are not going to be capable of bluff raising you on the river, especially not bluff check raising. Against a villain you would think is capable of doing that, you are much better off checking behind.

In fact, i've paid off some hands on the river where the opponent took an incoherent value CR line (unless they were brilliantly leveling me; you never know, right?) that made no sense to me except as a bluff. E.g., AQ IP, bet top pair of queens on two :spades: flop, get called, check back turn , bet blank river, get CRed AI, and pay off the nut flush. How could that line make any sense without a very specific read on my play (which i don't think they knew me well enough to have)?

I do this in limit games (including Omaha) too, imagining that my opponents are as creative as i am in attempting bluffs. They almost always are not.

So basically, until i know they know how i think, river raise = almost the nuts.

We have bingo!

Right, I see this a lot, usually seems to be when I am running badly. Villains take some weird line where they make a check raise on the river, after I checked behind on the turn. Sometimes I level myself into thinking that there is absolutely no reason that my opponent could expect me to bet that river, given my previous action, and decide to look them up.

Like you said, the reality of the situation is that they aren't even thinking about the strength of my own hand, and whiffed the turn check raise, so they are going for it again on the river.

3 hour sesh at MCC. I made a jerk move I have never donee before. Guy slow rolls me early on. I get him in a pot later. He moves a Few seats away from me, the guy to my right says "your moving closer to me to pick on me?" (jokingly) then he stated, "nope, just trying to get closer to my money" to which I butted in, still thinking about that slow roll, "this is as close as your gonna get to it unless your following me home." I immediately racked up and left. Lol. That is all

If that is the biggest Jerk Move you've ever made at a Poker Table then you're a WAY better person than I am.

I can be more of a jerk than that before I ever even see my first hand.

I think what this boils down to is that the villain thinks he is being super-secret-sneaky. I see this a lot at the casinos downtown. If the villain has the nut flush on the river and is first to act, the sneakiest thing he can think of is to check. Once you bet, he then goes all-in because he wants all the chips.

He doesn't have a read on you.
He doesn't know the difference between an "incoherent value CR line" and his ball hair.
He is not running a creative bluff.
His ball hair has more creativity than his brain.

It's similar to limp-reraising aces pre flop (a move I'm going to start referring to as the "Detroit"). I've fallen for the CRAI on the river, and the limp-RR aces thing more than a few times. Then I started giving my opponents less credit for actually being able to think, and I believe it's saving me money.

Naah, not specific to Detroit. Higher incidence among old nits who play 30/3 and are worried they'll not get paid off if they don't limp their big hands. If it gets limped around, the correct continuation is to CR or raise any bet, stack off, and express disgust that these donkeys are always flopping sets or two pair.

L/RR always always always = KK+. This is such an immutable rule that i'd like to try L/RR T9s against players good enough to raise/fold.

Hahahahahahaha! Good point. I couldn't agree more. I guess I see it more here because I play here the most. That, and MCC is full of nut peddlers.

I guess what I was trying to say is that you are right when you feel like you are leveling yourself. Don't believe that most of your opponents can form thoughts and plans. (lol)

I have to concur on this.
Every once in a while I level myself into thinking that the villain has a bluff ... but it's always the nuts.

LMAO I also did this today, it got to the bb who makes it $6, I make it $26, folds to him who calls. TT2r flop, he jams 60ish. lol

I usually only do this with those nut-peddlers. lol I find it sooooo obvious and I feel like I'm exposing my hand. It kills me it still works. I have been wanting to balance with weaker hands, but I don't find it neccessary or:
refers to me!

lol...hence your location

I can't find the foot-in-the-mouth emoticon. If we ever cross paths in a card room, I'll buy you a beer. (just don't stab me with your hidden aces while I'm ogling the waitress)

Which charity casinos within 20 min of Detroit regularly run $2/5nl?