Sounds interesting. Are any rooms anywhere else doing the same thing (other cities)? There would be sick action in the whole for the rest of the day after it's hit.
For me, I'm bound to wherever the 30/60 game is running. Ameristar is my least favorite room at this point because of the noise and generally poor running of the room but it is what it is.

What are the Lodge jackpot requirements btw?

In response to kwealert's post, I would not recommend you trying the 30/60 game on a short bankroll. Limit HE is a high variance game. Some people may disagree with me on this because it seems counter intuitive, but LHE has far more variance than NLHE. The reason for this is quite simple, because of the nature of the game, more hands go to a showdown in LHE, i.e. you will rarely bluff a player into a fold for one more river bet in LHE. So in order to win, you need cards. Players who try to bulldoze their way through LHE games because they are impatient, on tilt, etc. go broke real quick.

On the other hand 4/8 w/a kill or half kill I imagine is a very beatable game up in BH (or anywhere else for that matter). However the $5 rake + $2 BBJ drop, which is pretty standard up in BH, will decimate your win rate. Don't forget about gas and tips to the dealers. Factor in all four and I'm not even sure you could make min wage, even if you employ near perfect full ring LHE strategy.

The variance in LHE is lower than NL in the math sense. Think of it this way, you can win or lose hundreds of big blinds in a NL hand and you can bounce 24 big blinds in a LHE one. So strictly, you're wrong.

However, you are right in another sense. The edge an expert winning player can have in a NL game is much larger. The effect of that edge is that the downswings that player sees are smaller. Since people think that losing is variance and winning is skill, the apparent variance in NL is lower because sick heaters are never luck. If you want to get mathy, look up a Risk of Ruin calculator and play around with the numbers. This goes away for a breakeven player or a losing one -- now the larger variance of NL isn't counter-acted by a huge WR. That's why bad and marginal players go broke so fast in NL. LHE is a much kinder game due to the lower variance.

I've got kind of a strange question. I often go mountain biking, hiking or fishing in the AM and go to Black Hawk for the afternoon/evening/night to play.
Is there someplace near BH with a shower? I can get a room but I don't generally stay overnight. I'm thinking like a gym or truck stop, campsite, or something.

Thanks for any help.

Lol, not sure where I got the impression that the 30 game was soft. Read 6 months of posts over a couple days so i could have easily misunderstood or misinterpreted someone. I use the term 'soft' relative to the stakes anyways. I wouldn't ever think the 30 game was easy or comparable to the 4/8 game. I didn't think playing on 150 BB was ever really going to be feasible just wanted to confirm the game condition.

Yeah, I am well versed in variance as I played 6 max LHE online. Live, small stakes, FR variance is cake compared to online 6 max. I don't figure to make a living at 4/8 just a little supplemental income. I would plan on making multi-day trips, sleeping in my truck, bring food and taking advantage of comps the best I can. I figure I can get 25-30 hours in on a weekend (hopefully without committing suicide).

Thanks for the info. Making a trip out there in a couple weeks and will do some scouting while there.

If you can live with a losing session or two and you suspect you can beat the game, I'd give it a look. If you ever played the Bellagio 30/60 day shift on a weekday, you'd think this game is soft. That's the only other game of comparable stakes I've played. With the 50/100 hands and the aggressive opponents, the swings are going to be big-ish.

Good luck when you head up.

I'd also be interested to know anyone's thoughts on this. What about paying the $30 or so fee to use the fitness/pool/spa facilities at Ameristar? Or is that only available to guests? It would be worth it to spend an hour decompressing in the spa area before showering and heading down to the casino.

I get what you're saying. On a strictly theoretical level and only accounting for the different betting structure of the games, NLHE will have more variance. However, I completely agree that a winning player's edge in NL is much greater than in LHE. Because of this fact, if you have a tight bankroll and the patience to select good games, my personal recommendation would be to play the 1/2 NL (or in Colo the 2-100 spread limit) vs a limit game that has a similar buy-in. So in a practical sense I still maintain NL has lower variance. Said another way, I believe a competent NL player will have a far higher % of winning sessions, than a competent 5/10 or 8/16 LHE player.

Another huge caveat is that variance will be heavily influenced by your own particular playing style. If you don't take bad beats well, tend to chase losses when you're losing, "gamble" more when you're stuck to try and win it all back in one big hand, than NL might be a very bad choice. Of course, those aren't really the characteristics of most winning players, so it's kind of a moot pt.

And DougL, just to be clear, I'm using you and your just to represent any Joe Schmoe poker player. I'm making no inferences about your own particular playing ability. I could also be totally incorrect as to which type of game has more "real world" variance, but that has been my experience over a fairly large sample size. Also several players and dealers whose opinion I respect have told me they believe NL can be played on a shorter bankroll assuming the edge you think you have in a particular game actually exists.

Look forward to hearing about the new structures/tournaments when you start running them. Please let us know here since most of casino sites are out of date and vague.

On the 100% room share, I don't care too much either way since I'm a casual player and don't chase them around town. I care much more about a good game with good floor staff and dealers. Given the choice though, I do prefer room shares since it's nice to get a little piece of it when it hits but since I've only hit one (room share) in 6 years of playing, meh.

I agree with your result, you can play on a shorter roll in NL in similar sized games than you can in LHE. I guess I was unclear and then gave a cute example as if I weren't sure, variance (meaning standard deviation squared) is certainly higher in NL. It isn't a question. Also, variance, especially in LHE, isn't that much impacted by your playing style. All the examples you gave have more to do with win rate than variance. You go nuts so you become a losing player.

Again, people who aren't math-like tend to think that variance is equivalent to downswings. It will help your math game to be careful with the terms, if you want to improve in that area. Otherwise, "you need less money to play in NL if you crush" works fine, too.

There are plenty of winning LHE players in tough games that win fewer than 1/2 their sessions.

I suspected all along we were saying the same thing. Yes I am completely mangling the definition of variance. As a former actuary (i.e. "bad actuary"), I am familiar w/the calculation

However, I suspect when a lot of poker players use the term "variance" with respect to their bankrolls, and ask a question like "which game has the lowest variance?" what they are really asking is which game is the safest to play on a short bankroll if I want to minimize my chance of going broke? So that was really the question I was trying to answer.

To get the thread back to the Colorado poker scene, what to you think the win rate and SD of a decent 1/2/100 player is? I have no idea what kind of edge a winner has, let's assume he's not a super star.

Taking next week off, would like to play a few tournaments during the day M-F...could someone give me a quick rundown of the tourney schedules up there? Thanks.

Thanks. I will definitely take a look, but I either forgot or didn't realize it was a kill game. That will probably squash even shot taking until I get a full time job.

Anyone notice any difference in the 4/8 games between casinos? It doesn't sound like they run 24/7 anywhere other than at Ameristar.


Good question, this might have to be me...

Hey Matt,

What time is going to be and what will the buy-in be? I will come up and play it and try to get a cash game going after I bust.

I also had a chance to check out the room this weekend. It is really nice, and I hope we can get some more traffic through there in the near future. I also appreciate that you are taking input from 2+2.

The O8 tournament starts at 10am on Thursdays. Sign ups start at 8am and if you sign up before 9am you get a free buffet. I'd love to get a limit O8 game going after the tournament. Thursdays is Omaha day! We'll see.

Best,
Matt

+1
What is buy in?

$40 buy-in + $5 entry fee gets 3000 chips and an optional $10 add-on gets you additional 2000 chips. 20 minute limits. Starts at 25/50 blinds. Same structure as the Saturday $10K.

Best,
Matt

How many players you need to get it going? I think that 10AM start is little bit to early. There is no way that poker players will wake up at 8...

I'd recommend the 1/2/100 or the 2/5/100 over any 4/8 if profit matters. One of these days, we'll get a 8/16 or 10/20 game going up at the Isle. Let me get caught up on sleep from Vegas and I'll try harder to organize one. Once there, I'll share epic tales of the 10/20 we got going at the Venetian -- there will be 300/600 regs in the story.

We need 8 to start and we had 10 last week. That was the first week of it too and most of those players said they'd be back to play this week.

Best,
Matt

Hey Matt,

Did the Saturday noon tourney go last weekend? I am planning on coming by this Saturday to try it out.

No it didn't...we had 6 players and we need 8 to start. If some of the people here on 2+2 that swore they were going to be here last week (and weren't) will show up this Saturday, we should get it going. Looking forward to seeing you all this Saturday (I forgive those of you who said you were going to be here last week )

Best,
Matt

I am probably looking in the wrong place, but I figured you guys might have a clue. I am in Durango for the week and am thinking about going to play in the Sky Ute poker room. Anybody have any experience here? From what I've read itt it sounds like blackhawk is a great place to play!

Thanks

Hey Matt,
Last sunday I played with a guy who clamed that Isle has WPT event lined up for october. Any comments on that?