hey, after a major downswing of 350 buyin last month i am now suffering from a very welcome upswing I am still looking to improve so last couple of days i have looked at the hands played in my db by some solid regs. Most spots were the std shove and call in chip ev mode. But two spots i found very interesting. They were played by CândidoBerto. This player has an roi of 40% over 4k games. Still a small sample, but my guess we can learn something from him.

Hand 1:

First hand of FT. 9 man left. Avg stack distribution. Villain is utg with 9bb and shoves with 44.

In nash this is correct. But if you tweak the calling ranges ( nash gives them 3-5% which is pretty tight) it becomes a very big fold. But if we double up here we can use our increased chip utility for a top3 finish. So might be worth it. Up until today i always folded this hand.


Hand 2:

Still early on the FT. 8 man left. Villain minraises utg (15bb) . The B 3bets (12BB) with AQo, and the BB rejams for 12bb. Villain snaps it off with 99s. His 99 hold up against AQ and AK and he wins a monter pot. Again if you put this in nash it even tells you to fold AKs. And only call with QQ+.



Your thoughts on both spots?

Very hard to give opinions with out at least all the chip stacks at the table. Ideally some stats as well.

1. first one probably a good shove. like you say its GTO.
As well as improves villain stack utility.
Putting simply if he gets it through he will still have decent fe on open shoves after paying both the blinds. If he gets called flips and wins he will also have fe on 3 bet shoves as well as survivability if he gets no plus EV spots for a while.
The top heavy payout distribution means I would shove here unless there was a couple of stacks smaller then me at the table. Or maybe If I have a particularly lag image. say I was bullying the ft bubble and people see me as aggressive and ive had a couple of loose calls vs me.

2. Readless this seams an absolute clear fold to me. the bb calls someone for his whole stack who has 3 bet shove a utg open!
They would have to be some funky stats table dynamics for this ever to be correct in my opinion. But then I don't have an roi as high as that!!! 44% over even a 4k sample is pretty impressive. Very impressive actually.

If you look at his graph are they any huge spikes of profit from other game types. A large MTT spike could mean the sample is greater effected by variance then if the entire sample is MTTsng alone?

no the 40% is only over MTTSNG. No mtts involved.

Hand 1: is a nash shove. But like i said, the nash calling ranges are very tight. I mean nobody is folding AQ or TT here. So When you plug in somewhat wider callranges, 44s is a big fold. So thats why i ask.

About the stack distribution. Just a typical FT. 1-3 short stacks (5-6bb) , 1-2 big stacks, and a couple of mid stacks.

About the stats: I have 2.5k hands on him. And he is playing pretty tight. 14/12/7 ( but could be due to lack of sample)

bump.

1st hand is standard second is close. Ripping any pair utg for 9bbs. Hand 2 99 is likely bottom of my range here or a fold, 99 is closer 1010 I snap call against most. But heavily villain dependant here

thanks for your reply oldschool. But this means you are completely ignoring icm. Could be good, but i just dont understand it. Lets take hand 1:

Stacks:

9bb (hero)
10bb 6% ( call range)
12bb 7%
5bb 12%
5bb 12%
20bb 7%
30bb 7%
9bb 7%
10bb 8% (big blind)

Now 44 is a -0.88 and 22 is -0.96. Those are pretty big negative % if you ask me. If the shorties call tighter it gets much much worse for us. (-1.42 for 44s)


Hand 2:

If the B reships with 16% and the BB overcalls with 6% then a call for villain with 99 is a -2.52. Cant be good really. JJs are also -0.69. AK around -1.5.

Is the extra chip utility really worth this?

in my opinion yes it is, i dont like to be handicapped by icm not until there are large payjumps

Not sure on the exact forum rules on specifying exact usernames in threads...

And also wondering if you are assuming the correct rebuying strat for villain here with those stats. I think the general assumption is that avg. rebuys are set to 2.5x (yeah, some may be more, some less, depending on strat).

Obviously this is more of a factor if Villain is playing the 3.5r exclusively. He is probably mixing in the higher BI freezeout ones to maintain volume especially now traffic is falling in the 3.5 since the nerf.

Of point slightly but regarding average rebuys that has to be falling as regs account for the new rakes. If I do play some now my ABI is less then 2.5x but it used to be a fair bit higher.

Corpsey whats your take on hand 2?

Shove 99 pre. As played, fold with the action given unless there are some extreme tendencies behind.

thanks corpsey. What, in your mind, are always calls (@hand2) and which are borderline?

JJ/QQ, AKo/AKs are probably borderline, depending on stats.

yeah those look a lot like the nash ranges. except nash probably says AK is not that much borderline but a clear fold (around -1isch) .

What i dont understand is. Why rip the 44s in hand1 (which is nash icm wise a pretty negative shove)..and not call with 99/TT in hand two. In other words, why follow nash in hand 2 but not in hand 1.

any more insight on this player? I would be interested.
I believe both spots were risky.
1) He doesn´t seem to be very aggressive so I believe he seems to be doing this just because of ICM (which is too close) i don´t think he would use the chips to abuse anyone.
2) I would have fold that one but he is the pro not me XD

im really happy gii with 22+ in hand1
hand2 i probably shove, because i dont want to make raise/deciding in this spot with this hand and also not want any sickos behind to rip with QTs and such

i think we should not be minraising anything under TT+/AQs/AKo

77-99/ATs/AJo are better off jamming pre