Quote:
Originally Posted by michty6
Not really based on an anecdote, the 'analytics' of the situation are very simple: QQ destroys the range that a random player is 3 betting/4 betting/5 betting; against most regs this is not nearly so much the case. Therefore playing the hand straight-forward (get the money in) against a random is the most +EV play; not playing it this way against most regs (depending on your reads of their ranges) is the most +EV play. So, analytically speaking, folding QQ to a randoms 3 bet/4 bet/5 bet WITHOUT a read on their range is burning money. And if you are assigning nutty ranges to randoms (or thinking 'they might have a tight range here!' or 'but they could be a reg!' - as you have stated in this thread) then your own analytical analysis is pretty poor and you need to re-examine this. I do agree with your concept of factoring the players country into any decision but I wouldn't place anywhere near 100% of my decision on this, I'd factor in the fact that this is a random player much more heavily than their country of origin.
With regards to the 4th best hand (JJ) then 3 bet/get it in with a random is fine, some regs play it this way. However, flatting is considerably better as an option here (compared to QQ) because ~57% of flops with JJ are going to contain an over-card as opposed to ~41% with QQ - remember a lot of randoms are flatting 3 bets with a wide range a lot of which is broadway cards. This makes JJ a much better hand for playing more 'small ball' as it does not flop as well as QQ does - therefore is a better candidate for pot control rather than 3 betting pre.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pghfan987
If you think flatting JJ is best, then your whole rant about OMG WHY WOULD YOU FLAT THE THIRD BEST HAND IN POKER??? sounds pretty dumb.
Sure I was trying to make a point about how silly some of the logic being presented in the thread about 'we only have QQ' and basically giving a random villain a ridiculously nutty range was.
I presented pretty clearly above why flatting JJ is not anywhere near as bad as flatting QQ here. I could easily reverse the question to you and ask if you are flatting KK or AA in this spot? Because my logic presented above is very clear on why QQ-AA are better 3 bets than JJ is (a simple analysis of potential flop textures).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pghfan987
Second, it's pretty apparent that you are making a crucial mistake in logic. In fact, a lot of people are making the same mistake in this thread. Simply because it's +EV to stack off preflop to an UTG+1 open, that does NOT mean that that is necessarily the way to make the most money in the hand. Your logic seems to be:
1) It's +EV to get it in
2) I want to win the most money possible
3) To achieve (2), we need to put as many chips into the pot as possible as quickly as possible
(3) Does not follow from (1) and (2). If you are decent postflop, there should be some hands that are marginally +EV to stack off pre, but you gain more chips long-term by flatting pre.
No I have made it pretty clear several times that flatting is +EV but I believe not as +EV as 3 betting - that is I do not see how you gain more chips long term by flatting pre in this spot.
The logic for this is pretty simple:
(1) We have a top hand that flops very well in a 3 bet pot (we don't have to pot control often)
(2) We are deep enough stacked (75 BB) that we want to start building a pot to gain the maximum possible value (something flatting doesn't do)
(3) We are miles ahead of the range of a random and we want to get the random to make large pre-flop mistakes (again, something flatting doesn't do)
All these things together make 3 betting considerably more +EV than flatting in the long-term.
Also, it doesn't matter how 'skilled' you are post-flop, since you are missing the following:
(1) You are losing the value in getting villains to make horrible pre-flop mistakes (flatting too wide, 4 betting too wide, 5 betting too wide). Mistakes that QQ has considerably equity against.
(2) Even the very top hands in poker (QQ+) lose their value (equity) considerably in multi-way pots. Flatting encourages multi-way pots.
(3) In this hand we get the chance to isolate a random player in position. Flatting increases the odds that we will have to play our hand OOP to some villains. Position = more EV in poker. Flatting = higher chance we lose position.
I could go on with other minor factors like a lot of value for players comes from multi-tabling 180s and playing QQ in a multi-way pot leads to decreased focus on other tables so lost EV there, flatting loses value when villain misses his hand on the flop (which is the ultimate conclusion of most hands) etc etc.
But most players consider 3 betting here a very easy decision and more profitable to flatting, hence why I was dismayed at some of the responses in this thread as the rational and logic for flatting was way off.